On the morning of December 12, the National Bureau of statistics will release the consumer price index (CPI) for December 2021. The average forecast of several institutions shows that CPI increased by 1.7% year-on-year in December.
In November 2021, the national consumer price rose by 2.3% year-on-year, expanding for two consecutive months. As of January 11, the average CPI forecast for December 2021 given by 14 institutions was 1.7%. The maximum value is 2.1% given by Galaxy Securities, and the minimum value is 1.4% given by Huachuang securities and China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) Research Institute.
Anxin securities expects that in December 2021, CPI fell to around - 0.2% month on month, significantly lower than the historical level in the same period. Superimposed on the high base of CPI month on month in December 2020, CPI in December fell to slightly lower than 1.5% year-on-year or from 2.3%. According to the analysis of Anxin securities, pork, fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and oil prices all constitute a negative pull on CPI month on month, in which the change of fresh vegetable prices from rise to fall has a great impact on CPI.
Luo Zhiheng, vice president and chief macro researcher of YueKai Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with the media that the CPI is expected to rise by 1.6% year-on-year in December 2021, significantly lower than the 2.3% in November. He analyzed that, on the one hand, the tail raising factor disturbed, on the other hand, the supply of pork and vegetables was sufficient, and the price fell. However, near the Spring Festival, non food prices may rise, forming a hedge against it.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from December 6 to December 26, 2021, the average wholesale prices of 30 kinds of vegetables and pork fell for three consecutive weeks.
As for the way of CPI in the future, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) analysis said that based on the influence of winter climate factors and the supply of fresh meat and poultry, food prices are expected to maintain a stable increase; In addition, since 2021, PPI has been increasing month by month, and the upstream price increase is gradually transmitted to the terminal. Multiple factors may promote CPI to enter the upward channel in 2022.
Looking forward to 2022, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) it is expected that the upward cycle of CPI will enter the second half. From the perspective of historical law, the trend of China's CPI is closely related to the periodic fluctuation of pork price. The loss of farmers in this round of pig price decline is much higher than that in the previous two rounds of pig cycles. In combination with the losses of farmers and the changes in the stock of fertile sows, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that pig prices may bottom out near the second quarter of 2022, or will promote CPI upward.
(source: Zhongxin Jingwei)
