On January 12, the National Bureau of statistics will release the national consumer price index (CPI) for December 2021 and the whole year of 2021. Many institutions predict that the increase of CPI in December 2021 may fall, and the annual CPI will be within the regulation target of about 3%
CPI up and down trend chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics
CPI year-on-year increase or decline
Driven by the sharp rise of fresh vegetable prices, the year-on-year increase of CPI in November 2021 significantly expanded, and returned to the “2 era” after 14 months.
What is the year-on-year increase in CPI in December 2021? According to statistics, the average forecast value of 20 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in December 2021 is 1.73%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase of CPI in December will fall sharply.
“It is preliminarily estimated that in December 2021, the food Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price decreased by 1.4% month on month, from increase to decrease, and the year-on-year decline expanded.” Liu Xuezhi, senior researcher of Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) Financial Research Center, said that the overall pork price rose in December 2021. From January 1 to 27, the average wholesale price of pork in China was 24.1 yuan / kg, but the pork price has fallen since mid December.
According to the monitoring of the “national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale market price information system” of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, in December, the average wholesale price of pork (white strip meat) was 24.00 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.1% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 44.6%.
“The price rise of industrial products is slowly transmitted to end consumer products, and the overall increase of non food prices may expand. In December, the tail raising factor of CPI fell by 0.7 percentage points. Taking the above factors into account, the year-on-year increase of CPI will fall to less than 2%, which is expected to be between 1.7% and 1.9%, taking the median value of 1.8%; the annual average increase of CPI is about 1%.” Liu Xuezhi pointed out.
According to statistics, the average forecast value of 76 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in 2021 is 1.26%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase of CPI in 2021 will remain within the regulation target of about 3%.
CPI in 2022 or moderate upward
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, on January 7, the grain and oil prices in key wholesale markets were basically the same as those a week ago. The price of pork decreased by 3.3%, the price of eggs decreased by 0.7%, and the average price of 30 kinds of vegetables decreased by 0.8%.
On the evening of the 10th, in a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing, the price tag showed that “the front tip with skin is 8.98 yuan a catty, the rear elbow is 9.98 yuan a catty, the front row without neck is 12.98 yuan a catty, and the fresh rib is 24.98 yuan a catty.” Supermarket staff told Zhongxin finance and economics reporter, “now the front tip with leather is discounted, as long as 7 yuan a catty.”
“In July 2021, there was an inflection point in the growth of China’s fertile sows, and it has fallen for four consecutive months month on month as of October 2021. There is a lag period of about 10 months from the beginning of the elimination of fertile sows to the recovery of pig prices. Therefore, pig prices may usher in a new round in the second quarter of 2022, driving the recovery of CPI.” Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) Liang Zhonghua, chief Macro Analyst, believes that.
However, Liang Zhonghua also pointed out that the recovery of consumption this year and at least the first half of the year may still be weak. Under the background of weak terminal demand, the transmission from PPI to CPI should not be overestimated. CPI is expected to maintain a moderate recovery of about 2-3%.
According to Zhang Wenyu, a researcher at zhongchengxin International Research Institute, “in 2022, with the marginal repair of investment and consumption leading to the recovery of relevant service industry prices and the gradual reduction of the drag of pork prices on the upward CPI, CPI may have a slight upward trend throughout the year. Considering the influence of tail raising factors, it may be a high point in the middle of the year.”
(source: China News Network)
