Last week, the CSI 300 index fell 2.39%, and the Changjiang household appliance index rose 5.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.47pct. In terms of segments, last week, Changjiang white appliances, kitchen and bathroom appliances, small appliances, black appliances and lighting equipment were 5.76% / 3.57% / 1.47% / 3.93% / 4.15% respectively.
Sub section core data tracking:
White appliances & color TV: according to the data of ovicloud for one week, the offline retail sales of air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines decreased by 27.13%, 20% and 28.72% respectively year-on-year; The online retail sales of air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines decreased by 13.01%, increased by 13.31% and 24.5% respectively year-on-year; Color TV offline channels decreased by 24.82% year-on-year, and online channels increased by 6.17% year-on-year.
Kitchen appliances: according to the data of ovicloud.com for one week, the retail sales of range hood offline channels decreased by 21.64% year-on-year, and the retail sales of online channels increased by 0.72% year-on-year; The retail sales of offline channels of gas stoves decreased by 19.24% year-on-year, and the retail sales of online channels decreased by 2.11% year-on-year; The offline retail sales of integrated stove increased by 54.24% year-on-year, and the online retail sales increased by 62.43% year-on-year; The offline retail sales of gas water heater decreased by 32.23% year-on-year, and the online retail sales increased by 19.6% year-on-year.
Small household appliances: according to the data of Aowei cloud network for one week, the retail sales of dishwashers, rice cookers, cooking machines, health pots, wall breaking machines and floor sweepers Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) offline channels increased by 8.29%, 20.79%, 32.6%, 28.87%, 31.58% and 3.45% respectively year-on-year; Online channel retail sales increased by 18.26%, decreased by 12.9%, decreased by 2.05%, decreased by 23%, increased by 17.06% and decreased by 9.89% respectively.
Investment advice
Recently, the industry online released the forecast report for 2022, and the home appliance market segment still shows structural growth in 2022. According to the industry online forecast, the sales volume of China’s household appliance industry in 2022 is basically the same as that in 2021, about 719.1 billion yuan. The overall market shows a slight or no growth, but there are still structural growth opportunities, and emerging categories will maintain rapid growth. Among them, it is predicted that the domestic sales of dishwashers will be 2.75 million units, yoy + 33.1%, the export sales of dishwashers will be 6.3 million units, yoy-5.1%, In 2021, the popularity of dishwashers in China accelerated under the epidemic situation. In terms of product structure, the proportion of embedded and sink dishwashers increased; In 2022, 650000 clothes dryers will be sold domestically, yoy + 26.2%, and 3.1 million will be exported, yoy-12.9%. In 2021, clothes dryers will stand out by virtue of low base, health and environmental needs, and washing machine sets. They will become the “dark horse” category of household appliances in China. In 2022, the industry will continue to develop into high value-added products, heat pump products will be more popular and the market capacity will be large. The domestic sales of large household appliances market recovered slowly, and the growth of export sales was under pressure under the influence of the base. According to the industry online forecast, in 2022, the domestic sales of household air conditioners are expected to be 81.65 million units, yoy-2.1%, and the export sales are expected to be 65.59 million units, yoy-3.7%; The domestic sales of washing machines are expected to be 44.35 million, yoy-1.3%, and the export sales are expected to be 31.2 million, yoy + 2.5%. The price of main raw materials has entered a high and stable stage, and the shortage of shipping capacity in Q4 also shows signs of easing. It is expected that the backlog of goods in the early stage will gradually return to the normal shipping rhythm, and the shipping price will fall steadily; At the same time, home appliance manufacturers continue to promote the high-end process, which will effectively thicken the profit elasticity of the industry.
It is suggested to pay attention to: Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696)
Risk tips: 1) the impact of the epidemic on the macro economy failed to meet expectations; 2) The price war in the home appliance industry has intensified; 3) Raw material prices rose more than expected.
(source: BOC International Securities)
