The three major A-share indexes collectively closed lower today, of which the Shanghai index fell 0.73% to close at 3567.44 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.27% to close at 14223.35 points; The gem index fell 1.28% to close at 3056.15. The market turnover remained above 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.05 trillion yuan today. Industry sectors rose less and fell more, traditional Chinese medicine and covid-19 detection concept stocks rose against the market, and digital currency, shipbuilding and semiconductor sectors led the decline.
Today’s news:
1. The national standing committee decided to “speed up and expand the scope” of procurement with volume: where is the enterprise road when the storm of centralized mining strikes in 2022?
2. All localities have sounded the number of major infrastructure construction, with more than 3 trillion investment supporting the bottom and steady growth
3. National development and Reform Commission: rapidly increase the supply of affordable inclusive services in housing and other fields
4. Ren Zeping responded to hot issues: population, real estate tax and stock market 5000 points
5. Plummeted by 9600 billion! The end of the worst selling wave? Goldman Sachs shouted “buy”! Munger, qiaoshui heavy gold bottom reading
6. Liang Jianzhang proposed to invest 5 trillion yuan to encourage childbirth: cash, tax exemption and child care
7. The “national team” offered the first shot of reducing its holdings in 2022 and sold two chip stocks: 5x bull stocks are also listed!
8. A number of documents have been issued in the iron and steel industry, and the industry profit has reached a record high. The list of high growth predicted by institutions has been released
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that small and medium-sized enterprises may rebound in the short term. Considering that the market will still be in the game state of stock funds before the Spring Festival, we should also pay attention to high selling after the rebound. It is suggested that investors, on the one hand, pay close attention to the relevant undervalued and high-quality targets under the steady growth policy, and can also appropriately grasp the oversold rebound opportunities of some track stocks with guaranteed performance.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said it continued to be optimistic about the undervalued repair market. For the “new half army” and other hard science and technology plates, combined with the five crowding index and previous callbacks, the current adjustment space has been relatively adequate. In the short term, on the one hand, grasp the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued real estate chain, infrastructure chain and securities companies, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long fighting short and bargain hunting. Focus on three directions: 1) real estate chain and infrastructure chain: on the one hand, benefiting from marginal changes in policies, “steady growth” is expected to rise. The economic work conference called for “moderately advanced infrastructure investment” and “promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing”. On the other hand, the subsequent monetary and credit is expected to be further relaxed, which will also bring about the valuation repair of infrastructure, real estate and other sectors. 2) Securities companies: the economic work conference proposed to “fully implement the stock issuance registration system”, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities companies. At the same time, with the continuous deduction of the cross-year market, as a plate with strong linkage with the market, securities companies β Attributes will also be fully interpreted and released. 3) The scientific and technological growth represented by “small high tech” is arranged on a bargain hunting basis. Recently, the scientific and technological growth plate has been adjusted, which is mainly disturbed by factors such as position, mood and style. However, in combination with the five congestion indicators and previous callbacks, the space for subsequent adjustment may be limited. In the medium and long term, scientific and technological growth is still the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under common prosperity. It is also one of the most distinctive themes of the times to meet the urgent need to improve scientific and technological competitiveness and get rid of the “neck stuck” dilemma under the background of the game between China and the United States.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has welcomed style rebalancing under the disturbance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high boom track. Considering the current loose liquidity in China, the gradual introduction of counter cyclical policies and the reasonable overall valuation of the market, we are still optimistic about A-Shares in the medium and long term. We believe that the signal of the end of this round of A-share “spring cold” cycle: China’s monetary policy has changed from “steady and neutral” to loose again, and China’s monetary and fiscal forces have once again contributed to “stable growth”. Investment strategy: A shares are still in the current “cold spring” cycle, and adhere to the main line of “stable growth” in terms of configuration. Since the beginning of the year, under the disturbance of the Fed’s monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high boom track, the A-share market has welcomed style rebalancing. Considering the current loose liquidity in China, the gradual introduction of counter cyclical policies and the reasonable overall valuation of the market, we are still optimistic about A-Shares in the medium and long term. We believe that the signal of the end of this round of A-share “spring cold” cycle: China’s monetary policy has changed from “steady and neutral” to loose again, and China’s monetary and fiscal forces have once again contributed to “stable growth”. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to take “steady growth” as the main line: first, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as building materials and buildings; Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on theme: meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
YueKai Securities said that the policy expectation before the two sessions of the “calendar effect” of A-Shares is expected to heat up. According to the statistics, the A-share market has performed well in terms of the winning rate and the average rise and fall in the 15 trading days after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years. We think it is difficult to end the agitation in spring. The logical support behind this round of market is: this round of market starts from the wide currency + wide credit brought by the expected rise of steady growth under the economic downturn cycle. At present, there is still room for wide currency, wide credit has yet to be effective, and both expectations have not been fulfilled. No. 1 central document and local NPC and CPPCC held at the end of January -2. Since 2004, the central government has issued the No. 1 central document entitled “three rural” (agriculture, rural areas and farmers) for 18 consecutive years. According to the situation in previous years, agriculture and seed industry sectors will have good performance, but the sustainability is poor. Mid March: focus on setting the tone of the national two sessions. Whether it is the local two sessions or the national two sessions, the annual work deployment is established, indicating the new direction of reform and the layout of key industries supported by policies throughout the year, so as to promote the steady growth and the expected warming of key supporting industries this year. Pay attention to the main line of steady growth and undervalued value, real estate, building materials, household appliances in the infrastructure and real estate chain, as well as consumer industries that expand domestic demand; High quality transformation development focuses on high-end manufacturing and energy transformation. In terms of rhythm, with the gradual convening of the local two sessions and the establishment of the annual work deployment, the market is expected to gradually stabilize in late January, and with the expected warming before the national two sessions, it is expected to launch the restless market in spring. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance of large cap stocks in the near future by looking back on the direction of high winning rate and high odds of historical A shares α Opportunities, focus on the development of small and medium-sized stocks after the festival β Flexibility.
According to the analysis of Minsheng securities, behind the market adjustment is the plate with high growth rate and independent of the assumption of economic aggregate recovery. Under the lack of valuation protection, the expected yield of “good can be better” may not be rich. Institutions do not always choose to pursue assets with high growth rate. In the environment where the prosperity begins to spread, high growth rate is not the first demand of institutional investors, and more cost-effective assets are the allocation direction. Recently, the value style of China and the United States stock markets has begun to significantly outperform the growth style. In the funds going north, even the allocated funds have reversed. We think this change will continue in the future. The probability of stabilization and recovery of future demand is increasing. In the long-term dimension, the value outperforms the growth with directional certainty. However, it is still in the “expected deduction” stage, and it will take time for the cohesion of new market consensus. Growth investors can wait for a good switching opportunity, and value investors should also grasp the most certain path in demand recovery. At present, in terms of reducing the cost of energy and carbon neutralization, China obviously has stronger execution and determination than overseas, which will benefit the varieties whose cost depends on China’s energy and environment (such as electrolytic aluminum and coal chemical industry).
The constraint of inflation in the recovery of demand should not be forgotten, which is an opportunity and greater challenge in the future. We recommend nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper), crude oil chain (oil service, oil transportation), real estate, banking, steel, coal and construction. The theme recommends Rural Revitalization (county consumption, agrochemical industry and seed industry).
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that at present, the overall A-share market still shows an obvious structural market. In the window period of overseas interest rate hike, China is still expected to maintain a reasonable margin of liquidity. Under this support, the market may enter the “high-low switching” stage, and the undervalued board is expected to be the first to be repaired, Previously, some track stocks with high congestion may face greater selling pressure in the adjustment. On the whole, “structural bull” will become the main line of market style throughout 2022. At present, it may coincide with the better allocation period of switching to low market blue chips. It is suggested to actively adjust positions and grasp the opportunities in the “high-low switching” of the market. In terms of industry, (1) pay attention to the low reversal opportunity of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery plate. At present, the valuation of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector, represented by the pork breeding sector, is relatively low. Near the Spring Festival, the stronger downstream demand may bring seasonal rise opportunities to the sector. Although the recent epidemic disturbance continues, combined with the mandatory consumption attribute of the sector, the impact or the whole is limited. At the same time, the pork sector is about to enter the stage of accelerated capacity removal, In the second and third quarters, the pig price is expected to harvest a cyclical reversal, and the first quarter coincides with a better allocation period. It is recommended to focus on it. (2) Avoid blindly chasing up the yuan universe plate in the short term. With the change of Facebook’s name to meta, the popularity of the meta universe concept plate soared for a time. We remind again that meta universe still has a way to go from hardware equipment R & D to adaptive software development to the industrialization of business model. During the sharp rise of the sector in a short time, some stock valuations ushered in “tuyere” opportunities, but they do not have the matching performance cashability. It is recommended to deal with them carefully. (3) Although the new energy sector is expected to maintain a high boom under the industrial logic, the current track congestion is still too high. It may face a large callback risk in the market style switching, and the configuration cost performance is significantly lower than that in 2021. It is recommended to reasonably control the position. (4) It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of financial sectors with relatively low valuations such as banks and insurance. With the Spring Festival approaching, the central bank is expected to strengthen the release of liquidity in the second half of the month. At present, the cost side of banks has improved significantly, which may drive profits to continue to rise. It is recommended to pay attention.
(source: China stock market news research center)
