The "king of materials" carbon fiber has remarkable performance advantages and is suitable for many fields. Carbon fiber has excellent mechanical properties and chemical stability. It has the characteristics of lightweight due to its high strength (about 10 times of steel), high modulus and low density (1 / 5 of steel and 1 / 2 of aluminum alloy). In addition, carbon fiber also has the characteristics of corrosion resistance, fatigue resistance, low coefficient of thermal expansion, high temperature resistance, high electrical and thermal conductivity.
Because carbon fiber has superior comprehensive properties, it is known as the "king of materials". As an indispensable high-tech new material in modern industry, carbon fiber is widely used in aerospace, new energy equipment, automobile, sporting goods, transportation, engineering equipment, medical equipment, construction and structural reinforcement.
Under the background of "double carbon", the rapid development of wind power, hydrogen storage bottles and photovoltaic drives the high growth of carbon fiber demand. From the perspective of demand structure, the downstream demand of carbon fiber in China in 2020 mainly comes from wind power blades and sports leisure, with the demand of 24600 tons and 14600 tons respectively. In terms of demand growth, the demand growth of carbon composite materials, wind power blades and pressure vessels ranked first, with a year-on-year growth rate of 150%, 44.93% and 33.33% respectively.
The top-level design policy of "carbon neutralization" has been implemented, the development of clean energy has been strengthened, and wind power, hydrogen energy and photovoltaic have ushered in development opportunities, which will be the main driving force for the rapid growth of China's carbon fiber demand. Wind power blade: the installed capacity of global offshore wind power continues to grow at a high speed. The superimposed Vestas pultruded carbon plate process will expire in July 2022. The process will be popularized rapidly, which will open up the growth space of carbon fiber demand. According to the 2020 global carbon fiber composite market report, it is estimated that the global demand for carbon fiber of wind power blades will reach 93000 tons in 2025, and the CAGR will be 25% from 2021 to 2025. Hydrogen storage bottle: local governments have successively issued policies to support the development of hydrogen energy industry. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is the most important demonstration application in the downstream of hydrogen energy industry. With the breakthrough of China's type IV bottle technology, it will be widely used in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Driven by the fuel cell vehicle demonstration application policy, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will gradually increase, which will drive the significant increase of carbon fiber demand. According to the 2020 global carbon fiber composite market report, it is estimated that the global demand for carbon fiber for pressure vessels will reach 21900 tons in 2025, and the CAGR will be 20% from 2021 to 2025. Carbon carbon composites: with the growth of the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic, the demand for silicon wafers is increasing year by year. By 2020, the feeding amount of single crystal furnace has doubled compared with 2016, and the crucible size has increased from 16-20 inches to 32-36 inches. The increase of crucible capacity also has higher requirements for the bearing capacity of materials. The flexural strength of carbon based composites exceeds 150MPa, which can bear greater weight, ensure production safety, and better meet the development trend of large-scale thermal field. According to the 2020 global carbon fiber composite market report, it is estimated that the demand for carbon fiber of carbon composite materials will reach 18600 tons in 2025, and the CAGR will be 30% from 2021 to 2025.
Chinese enterprises have made breakthroughs in technology. The domestic replacement of carbon fiber can be expected in the future. European, American and Japanese enterprises have long begun to develop carbon fiber technology and integrate technology with industrial development. They have the first mover advantage, occupy a large part of the market share, and form a monopoly on the high-end carbon fiber market. Due to the strategic attribute of carbon fiber and geopolitical tension, foreign countries have certain restrictions and blockades on carbon fiber. With the breakthrough of Chinese carbon fiber enterprises in production technology and the rapid growth of downstream demand, there is broad space for domestic substitution. Beneficiary objects: (1) enterprises with a full set of large wire bundle Technology: Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) ; (2) China's leading carbon fiber precursor: Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) ; (3) Enterprises providing whole line supply and whole line solutions for carbon fiber production lines in China: Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) ; (4) China's carbon fiber leaders: Zhongfu Shenying, Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) .
Risk warning: the installed capacity of offshore wind power is less than expected; The capacity expansion and production progress of Chinese carbon fiber enterprises are less than expected; The R & D Progress of pultrusion process is less than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.
(source: open source securities)
