On Tuesday, the A-share market was shaken and stabilized in early trading. However, with the further decline of chip stocks and new energy vehicle stocks, the gem index adjusted again, which means that it has continued to fall for six trading days since 2022, and the K-line has broken. However, Chinese medicine stocks, covid-19 testing and other varieties have been strong, bringing some warmth to the weak A-share market.
annual report forecast information strengthens short-term wait-and-see mood
Looking back on the past trend, we can see that if the A-share market is in a strong state and the mainstream funds in the market are willing to do more, then the annual report forecast or annual report performance information may become a catalyst for the accelerated rise of individual stock prices, and there are also investment terms such as "performance profit fault". At the beginning of last year, Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) (300458) and other stocks jumped upward due to the sharp increase in annual report performance and clear information, which opened the main upsurge of hard technology stocks with automobile electrification and chip as the core, and the track stocks corresponding to such stocks became the protagonist of A-Shares in 2021.
Unfortunately, it may be due to factors such as excessive increase. In the six trading days since this year, the performance forecast information has not formed a strong stimulus to the stock price trend. For example, although the performance of Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (002920) is called as exceeding expectations by people in the industry, the stock price is still sluggish; After the performance of individual stocks such as Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300474) (300474) was clear in the annual report, there was a short downward trend. This shows that the differences between the current stock funds on the main investment lines such as automobile electrification, intelligence and chips are beginning to increase. Even if the performance exceeds expectations, it is considered that the sustainability is not strong. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the chips. The stock price trend of those varieties whose performance is lower than expected is even worse, jumping down directly.
It can be seen that the market at the beginning of this year has changed substantially compared with that at the beginning of last year. Although the performance cashing ability of track stocks is strong, due to the high share price and the sustainability of future performance, the market differences begin to be large. Therefore, not only the expectation of annual report performance wave is lost, but also the track stocks are depressed again, becoming a new source of decline in the A-share market.
the short-term A-share market may turn
However, there are not only track stocks in the A-share market, but also some blue chips and white horse stocks with excellent performance and relatively low individual stock valuation data, such as bank stocks. Most of them have a P / E ratio of about 5 times, a P / B ratio of less than 1 times, and a dividend yield of 3% or even higher, showing their high cost performance. More importantly, in recent trading days, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (601166), Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) (603323) and other stocks have released annual report information such as performance express, all exceeding expectations. Therefore, such stocks have been active in the near future, and their daily K-line chart is gradually breaking upward. Such stocks have great power, especially in the Shanghai Composite Index. Their stabilization also made the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index stronger than the gem index, which also means that there is little room for decline in the subsequent A-share market, at least the Shanghai Composite Index. Based on this, some hot money just let go, and theme investment varieties such as traditional Chinese medicine plate and covid-19 detection plate are becoming popular.
It can be seen that although track stocks led the decline again, they became a safe haven for short-term institutional funds because the performance of high-cost stocks such as financial and real estate stocks exceeded expectations. It is precisely because of such a safe haven that hot money has little room for short-term sharp decline in the A-share market. If many expressions such as liquidity and steady growth are taken into account, it shows that the systemic risk of A-Shares is also small. Therefore, the current pressure on A-Shares mainly comes from the falling trend of track stocks with large increase in 2021, and the supporting force mainly comes from high-cost blue chips such as financial and real estate stocks and some theme investment stocks that are repeatedly active. In this way, the short-term A-share market trend should not be too pessimistic, and a turnaround may occur at any time.
Moreover, although the track stocks have great differences, after all, they are the incremental industries of China's economy, and the future penetration and growth space are still broad. Therefore, the continuous decline also makes the cost performance gradually appear. Therefore, it is not ruled out that such stocks will gradually stabilize again in the follow-up trend. As a result, the pressure on the A-share market will slow down. Therefore, in the operation, without reducing the position, we can further adjust the position, deal with the risks brought by the short-term stock price structure and grasp the opportunities brought by the stock price structure.
(source: surging News)
