1. Overall configuration: the Fed's "shrinking table" exceeded expectations again, and the admission to the North slowed down. The pressure on the US supply chain has improved, the unemployment rate continues to reach a new low, the epidemic dominated by new mutant strains has been repeated, and the Fed has "shrunk its watch"
The signal exceeded expectations again. The manufacturing PMI index of the United States fell back to 58.7 in December, of which the supplier delivery index and price payment index fell sharply, but the sub item of employment improved, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% simultaneously, a new low after the epidemic. Recently, the number of new cases in a single day in the United States has exceeded 800000 one after another, brushing the historical record again. At the same time, according to the statistics of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and prevention, the infection proportion of Omicron virus strain in the recent new cases has reached 95%, and the new variant virus strain has become the main force of this round of epidemic in the United States. On January 5, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the FOMC monetary policy meeting in December. Subsequently, the number of implicit interest rate increases in 2022 was also expected to rise from 3 to 3.4, and the pace of "table contraction" of the Federal Reserve again exceeded market expectations.
The disturbance in the periphery reappeared, and the rhythm of entering northward was slightly slower. Last week, the Fed's interest rate hike and table contraction expectations warmed up, and the rapid rise of US bonds impacted the global risk appetite. At the same time, the internal and external epidemic situation also accelerated repeatedly. The overall inflow of northbound funds slowed down. The cumulative net inflow of northbound funds last week was about 6.203 billion yuan, of which the inflow of trading and allocation disks fell, with net inflows of about 4.267 billion yuan and 2.404 billion yuan respectively. At the same time, funds going south turned into inflows, with a cumulative net inflow of about 4.906 billion yuan last week. As of January 7, the cumulative net inflows of northbound trading and configuration have reached 4.267 billion yuan and 2.404 billion yuan respectively this year.
2. Industry allocation: significantly increased. From the overall perspective, the net inflow of banks (+ 3.962 billion), steel (+ 1.716 billion) and real estate (+ 1.422 billion) ranks first, with the largest outflow of Electronics (- 2.881 billion), food and beverage (- 1.823 billion) and national defense and military industry (- 1.612 billion); From the perspective of fund type splitting: from the perspective of trading order, the net inflow of banks (+ 3.053 billion) is the largest, while the net outflow of electronic (- 2.260 billion) is the largest; From the perspective of configuration disk, the net inflow of power equipment (+ 1.427 billion) is the largest, while the net outflow of pharmaceutical and biological (- 14.76) is the largest.
3. Allocation of individual shares: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) increased its holdings and Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) decreased its holdings. From the overall perspective, Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (+ 1.251 billion yuan), Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (+ 894 million yuan) and China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (+ 843 million yuan) rank first in net inflow; While Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) (- 1.864 billion yuan), Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (- 1.194 billion yuan) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 1.048 billion yuan) mostly flowed out.
From the perspective of fund type splitting, from the perspective of trading order, Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (+ 1.25 billion yuan), Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) (+ 769 million yuan) and Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) (+ 757 million yuan) rank first in net inflow; While Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) (- 1.361 billion yuan), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (- 1.007 billion yuan) and Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (- 924 million yuan) mostly flowed out. From the perspective of configuration disk, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (+ 779 million yuan), Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) (+ 759 million yuan) and China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) (+ 527 million yuan) rank first in net inflow; While Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 976 million yuan), Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (- 719 million yuan) and Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) (- 503 million yuan) mostly flowed out.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Exchange rate depreciation risk.
(source: Guosheng securities)
