On April 20, the Customs Statistics Platform updated the import and export data. After our inquiry and statistics, it was found that the export value of China’s covid-19 reagent (commodity code: 38221900) in March was 13.291 billion yuan, down 21.62% from February. This is also the first decline in the export value of covid-19 reagent after four consecutive months of growth.
From the export data in March, the import volume of covid-19 reagent from some countries that relaxed epidemic prevention earlier has decreased to a certain extent. In the changing market, some companies with good quality, high popularity and strong supply capacity are favored by governments all over the world, and a few enterprises still have large orders to undertake; While the demand for antigen detection in China is gradually released, such enterprises are becoming beneficiaries. After preliminary competition, it is highly likely that China’s antigen market will be dominated by leading enterprises in the future.
Asian demand increased and UK US imports decreased
Statistics show that Zhejiang continues to rank first in the export of covid-19 reagent in China. The export value in March was 6.07 billion yuan, accounting for 45.67% of the country, but decreased by 28.88% compared with February. Among other major export provinces, the export volume of Fujian, Tianjin and Anhui decreased significantly, and the export value decreased by more than 50%.
In the overall decline, the export value of Guangdong covid-19 reagent increased by 53.86% month on month to 3.074 billion yuan, becoming the second largest export province of covid-19 reagent in March. Liaoning also made a breakthrough in the export of covid-19 reagent in March. The export of covid-19 reagent in that month exceeded 700 million yuan, making it the third largest covid-19 reagent export province, while the province had only exported covid-19 reagent of tens of millions of yuan.
From the perspective of export market, domestic covid-19 reagent was mainly sold to Hong Kong, the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan in March this year. The import volume of these five countries and regions was more than 1 billion yuan.
Recently, the demand for covid-19 reagent in China has changed greatly in some countries and regions. For example, the value of covid-19 reagent imported from China by Hong Kong in March was 2.827 billion yuan, an increase of 118.04% month on month; Japan’s import of Chinese covid-19 reagent in March also exceeded 1 billion yuan for the first time, a significant increase of 223% month on month.
Among the other major exporting countries, the United States cut back in March after several months of continuous growth in the import of domestic covid-19 reagent, but it is still the second largest importer of domestic covid-19 reagent. The situation in the UK is similar. The value of its imports fell sharply from 1.82 billion yuan in February to 91 million yuan in March, a decrease of 95%.
Combined with the data of trading countries / regions, the demand explosion in Hong Kong and Japan in March has greatly increased the export of covid-19 reagent in Guangdong and Liaoning. Among them, in March, Hong Kong imported 2.827 billion yuan of domestic covid-19 reagents, of which more than 2 billion yuan was contributed by Guangdong, accounting for two-thirds of Guangdong’s total covid-19 reagent exports in that month. In March, Japan imported 1.271 billion yuan of domestic covid-19 reagent, of which more than 700 million yuan was contributed by Liaoning, accounting for 99% of the total covid-19 reagent exports of Liaoning in that month.
The shrinking demand in the United States and the United Kingdom led to a month on month decline in the export of covid-19 reagent in Tianjin and Zhejiang. Among them, the value of covid-19 reagent exported from Tianjin to the United States in March was only 413 million yuan, down nearly 80% from 1.861 billion yuan in February; In March, the value of covid-19 reagent exported from Zhejiang to the UK was less than 100 million yuan, a decrease of more than 90% compared with February.
It is understood that the reagents exported from Zhejiang are mainly contributed by Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Aikang biology, Anxi biology, Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , etc. Among other major export provinces, Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) and Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) in Guangdong, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) in Tianjin and Baotai biology in Fujian are also the main export forces of covid-19 reagent in China. There is no large covid-19 reagent manufacturer in Liaoning. It is speculated that the covid-19 reagent exported from Liaoning may be exported to Japan by reagent manufacturers from other provinces through Dalian port.
the reagent demand is more concentrated after the epidemic prevention is degraded
After February and March, more and more overseas countries announced the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies. Recently, South Korea and New Zealand announced the downgrade of epidemic prevention. From the export data in March, the import volume of covid-19 reagent from some countries that relaxed epidemic prevention earlier has decreased to a certain extent. In the medium and long term, the degradation of overseas epidemic prevention may reduce the overall demand for antigen self-test reagents.
After two years of competition, the price system of covid-19 antigen detection reagent in Europe is relatively stable, and the trend of orders concentrated to a few manufacturers is obvious. However, in some new markets with high profit margins, with the addition of new players, the original stable level of the market may be broken. In the past two months, following Aikang biology, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , three Chinese enterprises, Kur technology, Xiangda biology and Bosheng biology, won the FDA antigen self-test EUA.
In the changing market, some companies with good quality, high popularity and strong supply capacity are favored by governments all over the world. Last month, the UK government website announced three covid-19 antigen reagent procurement contracts. Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Aikang biology and Getein Biotech Inc(603387) indirectly obtained £ 595 million, £ 237.8 million and £ 85 million contracts through designated suppliers respectively. Among them, Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Aikang biological antigen self-test reagent is one of the earliest products certified by the United States EUA.
At the “covid-19 antigen detection webinar” recently held by Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) joint “infection online”, Fang Xiaoliang, general manager of Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) said that at the beginning of this year, the antigen self-test reagents produced by Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) began to be sold in the United States, and recently, they were sold to Japan, New Zealand, Israel and other countries. From the public information, at present, only a few enterprises in China have obtained the sales license of antigen reagents from Japan and New Zealand.
enterprises with strong export capacity will also benefit from the Chinese market
Since this year, China’s covid-19 reagents have exported more than 10 billion yuan in a single month, the largest export volume since the covid-19 epidemic. With the development of policies, the demand for antigen detection in China will be gradually released, and it is expected to become a market of tens of billions.
Since the full liberalization, the use scenarios of antigen detection in China have been continuously determined and refined.
On April 19, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference to announce the implementation of the measures of “pick and go and chase” + “personnel closed-loop management” for truck drivers. It is pointed out that if the nucleic acid test result exceeds 48 hours when arriving at the destination, the method of “nucleic acid test + antigen test” can be adopted. If the antigen test result is negative, it shall also be released immediately, and the passage shall not be restricted by waiting for the nucleic acid test result.
On April 16, the Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation in the resumption of work and production of industrial enterprises in Shanghai (the first edition), requiring the resumption of work and production enterprises to reserve antigen detection reagents for more than 14 days.
Recently, the Tianjin epidemic prevention and control headquarters organized the formulation of the phased implementation plan for the application of covid-19 virus antigen detection in Tianjin (Trial), specifying that home isolation observers, close contact and secondary close contact personnel, entry isolation observers, personnel in the sealed control area and control area shall conduct antigen self-test once a day five days before the date of separation, and antigen test is not required for more than five days. This is the first large city in China to release the covid-19 antigen detection application implementation plan.
Up to now, the State Food and drug administration has approved 29 covid-19 virus antigen detection reagent products. However, the performance and quality of approved antigen reagents are different.
According to Nanfang Daily, relevant departments are carrying out large sample clinical trials to verify the performance of covid-19 antigen detection products from different manufacturers in China, hoping to further understand the accuracy of antigen detection products. It is also understood that in the national testing in Shanghai, covid-19 reagents of some manufacturers had quality problems such as flower boards and lack of components, which were criticized by name at the industry supervision meeting held by relevant parties.
At the same time, it is reported that some companies that have already established a firm position in the overseas market, leading sales and strong supply capacity have become the resident objects of relevant departments, and their antigen products have been used in several rounds of national antigen self-test in Shanghai. It is also reported that some enterprises with large production capacity have begun to contract antigen reagents for their Chinese counterparts. From these situations, reagent manufacturers with strong export capacity will also benefit from the Chinese market.
