The "embracing silicon as the king" that began last year makes the current photovoltaic industry enter a "Silicon making movement". The emergence of Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) undoubtedly adds new variables to this movement.
Not long ago, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) announced that it plans to invest 14 billion yuan to build industrial silicon and polysilicon projects in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province. Polysilicon will adopt silane fluidized bed process, commonly known as granular silicon, which is extremely rare.
At present, China's granular silicon manufacturers are only GCL technology and Shaanxi Tianhong. They have also paid more attention to potential competitors.
Jiang Limin, executive director of the Central Research Institute of GCL technology, told reporters that from the announcement, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) the granular silicon project to be invested depends on the patents of its technology source, but these patents alone are difficult to support the industrialization of granular silicon.
GCL technology took the lead in betting on granular silicon technology among the first-line polysilicon suppliers. Jiang Limin said that in the past expansion of polysilicon production by improved Siemens method, the company did not pay enough attention to patents, resulting in the rapid diffusion of technology. "What the company needs to do at present is to hold patents and talents, delay the diffusion process of granular silicon technology, and constantly innovate to maintain the leading position of granular silicon technology."
The reporter noted that since the mass production of GCL technology granular silicon at the end of 2020, the technology has been in dispute. As mentioned above, only a few manufacturers have achieved mass production, while most manufacturers still use the improved Siemens method.
Some enterprises publicly stated that the manufacturing of granular silicon by silane method has high requirements for equipment and production safety, and there are difficult problems such as high unit consumption of silicon powder and high cost of auxiliary materials.
granular silicon welcomes new players
In the current "Silicon making movement", few leading manufacturers use the silane fluidized bed method to manufacture granular silicon, and most of them use the more mature improved Siemens method, that is, the traditional bulk polysilicon; From the current situation, the proportion of granular silicon in the total shipment of polycrystalline silicon is also very low, only about 5%. Therefore, the Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) who entered halfway is particularly conspicuous.
According to the announcement of Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , the main technology source of the investment project is Chinese science and technology enterprise (hereinafter referred to as "technology source"), which has gradually completed the construction of silane production workshop and polysilicon cracking workshop since 2017, completed small-scale and pilot tests, and has 2 invention patents and 9 utility model patents for the production of granular silicon by silane fluidized bed method.
Although Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) did not explicitly mention the name of the technology source in the announcement, the information obtained by the reporter from multiple sources shows that the company is probably Inner Mongolia Xingyang Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Inner Mongolia Xingyang).
The reporter learned that Inner Mongolia Xingyang had planned to carry out polysilicon business, but it did not achieve its wish. Later, it turned to silane gas, which was mainly sold to photovoltaic cell enterprises. The industry speculated that Inner Mongolia Xingyang came together with Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) because of this;
In addition, the reporter found that in terms of equity relationship, Shao Yutian, the actual controller of Xingyang in Inner Mongolia, invested in Jiangsu Shenshan wind power equipment manufacturing Co., Ltd. Yan Kai, another shareholder of the company, is also the shareholder of Suzhou Zhonglai Minsheng, which is the holding subsidiary of Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) .
"It is not difficult to see from the announcement that the granular silicon project to be invested by Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) depends on two invention patents and nine utility model patents from the technology source. However, compared with the patents on paper, in order to realize the industrialization of granular silicon, there must be a complete set of industrialized devices, that is, the process package formed in the process of industrialized production." Jiang Limin told reporters that in short, the process includes key contents such as design documents, operation specifications and operation data. "These are the most important, and their significance is far greater than several patents."
The reporter learned that, in contrast, the industrialization of granular silicon in foreign countries started earlier. Long ago, SunEdison and rec both realized the large-scale production of granular silicon. At that time, the capacity scale of the two companies was 10000 tons.
Among them, SunEdison's team and intellectual property rights were acquired by GCL technology, which began the pilot test of FBR granular silicon in 2010, but it was not ready for industrialization until about 2019. After GCL technology bet on granular silicon, the proportion of R & D investment remained at more than 3% and is expected to exceed 5% this year; After the technical cooperation between rec and Shaanxi Tianhong, both sides have improved rec's granular silicon technology, and it has taken seven or eight years to realize industrialization in China.
Jiang Limin told reporters that from the perspective of the path of granular silicon industrialization of enterprises outside China, whether from pilot research and development to industrialization, or the improvement and upgrading of existing mature technologies, there will be a variety of problems and problems, which can not be realized with a few patents. "On the basis of no experiment, you can also write a patent. You can realize the patent dream with your imagination, but compared with industrialization, it is completely two different logics and concepts."
The reporter noted that Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) said in the announcement that although the company has reserved polysilicon potential technology for the proposed investment project, the technology is still being further optimized; In addition, the company's layout of the industry is relatively late, and it has not been involved in the silicon material industry in the early stage, and there is still a long process for the technology to be transformed into large-scale mass production and still maintain good output performance on the mass production line. The leadership of technical certainty still needs time to be confirmed. Therefore, the absolute advantage of the company's technical competition in the silicon material industry may not be guaranteed.
The company is still in the initial stage of decision-making on the expansion of polysilicon production, but has not been able to reply to the specific content of the project with the reporter.
However, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) people said that it was good for the company to layout the upstream because the upstream price increase had a serious compression on the company's profits.
technology quick spillover "lessons"
In the last round of polysilicon production expansion cycle of improved Siemens process, the photovoltaic industry experienced single polycrystalline process switching and delayed payment of subsidies for photovoltaic power stations, and many companies, including GCL technology, experienced personnel loss.
In particular, some polysilicon enterprises offer high prices for the personnel lost by the head enterprises. After a workshop director changes jobs, he can get the same salary as the management.
With the help of similar paths, the improved Siemens method was rapidly spread through enterprises and suppliers. "At that time, GCL did a lot of technical transformation and capacity expansion to reduce costs and improve quality, but paid insufficient attention to patents."
Jiang Limin told reporters that GCL is now very concerned about the protection of intellectual property rights, and continues to strengthen the introduction of relevant professionals and technologies, and build a "moat" of intellectual property rights in an all-round and multi-dimensional way. "It is not only patents, but also the core personnel and key data documents in the team."
In an interview with reporters, a person from a leading polysilicon enterprise of improved Siemens method said, "the potential production capacity is 3-4 times higher than now. How many practitioners are there in the whole polysilicon industry? Where are the professional technicians supporting such a large production capacity?" Jiang Limin told reporters that for GCL, preventing technology spillover is the biggest risk at present, and the core is a variety of key talents.
According to the data, the 10000 ton capacity investment of the improved Siemens method polysilicon is 1 billion yuan. Due to the fewer devices forming closed-circuit circulation, the 10000 ton investment of granular silicon is about 700 million yuan or less. Moreover, the energy consumption, land and personnel consumption of granular silicon will be greatly reduced.
For example, the improved Siemens process needs to shut down and crush every production period of time, while granular silicon does not need to go through such a cumbersome process, and the personnel allocated in the whole process will be reduced accordingly.
In the publicity of granular silicon suppliers, granular silicon has the absolute advantages of low cost, strong liquidity and low carbon emission. However, in the current tide of production expansion, it is rare to see which enterprise has a clear granular silicon technology. Jiang Limin believes that this does not mean that the advantages of granular silicon do not exist. On the contrary, it shows that everyone wants to try to do it, but it is limited by the lack of core technology.
Jiang Limin said that the reason why GCL technology has made great efforts in intellectual property protection is to maximize the delay in the process of technology diffusion of granular silicon. Specifically, first, it is necessary to delay the path and possibility of technology diffusion of granular silicon, and second, it is necessary to further improve, upgrade and iterate various processes, technologies and parameters, so as to control the updated technologies in the process of continuous research and development. "Even if there is technology diffusion in the future, it can only be the 'old style' of the past tense."
"At present, China's granular silicon manufacturers are only GCL technology and Shaanxi Tianhong. The fundamental reason is that there are strict" barriers "in key elements such as process, technology, talents and equipment, which is difficult for the industry to master." Jiang Limin believes that the improved Siemens method is more mature. The vast majority of manufacturers invest in the improved Siemens method polysilicon, which has some mentality of "making fast money".
The reporter noted that recently, GCL technology disclosed the company's performance in the first quarter. The data showed that the comprehensive gross profit margin of the company's photovoltaic materials business division reached 46%, of which the gross profit margin of FBR granular silicon products continued to be higher than that of rod silicon by more than 15 percentage points.
However, other participants in the polysilicon industry also have something to say. A leading polysilicon enterprise with improved Siemens method made it clear to reporters that it would not consider granular silicon, "The improved Siemens method has cost advantages, and we are very confident. We should not only judge the cost of different technologies, but also make a comprehensive evaluation of whether the product quality can meet the standard and comprehensive energy consumption. Moreover, after our evaluation, the lowest cost per ton of granular silicon is about 30000 yuan, and our new production capacity can be less than 30000 yuan."
Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) in a project investment announcement, it is also mentioned that polysilicon technologies such as silane method are progressing and maturing gradually. GCL technology has begun to use silane method for large-scale production of granular silicon, and the cost may continue to decrease with large-scale production; However, the silane method has high requirements for equipment and production safety, and there are difficult problems such as high unit consumption of silicon powder and high cost of auxiliary materials. At present, customers still mix granular silicon with polycrystalline silicon.
multiple joint venture projects will be implemented
Last year, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) and Jiangsu Zhongneng, a subsidiary of GCL technology, set up a joint venture to build a 300000 ton granular silicon project in Inner Mongolia. The investment proportion of the two parties in the joint venture was 35% and 65% respectively.
At first, the market was quite optimistic about this cooperation, which was also regarded as a victory for granular silicon to occupy the downstream market. However, after several rounds of capital increase of the joint venture, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) 's shareholding ratio fell to 27.07%.
At the end of February this year, an announcement aroused doubts in the market. Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) announced that it would start a new stove and invest in the production project of 150000 tons of high-purity industrial silicon and 100000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon in Baotou City, Inner Mongolia alone. The total investment of the project is expected to be 11.8 billion yuan. There are doubts in the industry: Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) and GCL technology cooperation has changed? Or Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) no longer optimistic about the prospect of granular silicon?
In response to this situation, industry insiders disclosed to reporters that Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) another stove is planned in consideration of its own silicon wafer production capacity. " Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) has 30GW silicon wafer capacity and is already planning a larger-scale project. The joint venture plant between SAIC and GCL can only supply 100000 tons of granular silicon in phase I. even if most of them are supplied to Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) it is difficult to match its silicon wafer capacity planning."
The source said that the reason for Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) planning to further expand the silicon wafer production capacity is related to the pressure from peers. For example, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) in Wuxi cut into the silicon wafer business later than Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) but the silicon wafer business has caught up quickly, which makes Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) feel urgent. Therefore, in order to meet the newly planned silicon wafer production capacity, it urgently needs to consolidate its position with the help of mature silicon material projects.
However, there are other new developments in granular silicon. Recently, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , GCL technology, etc. signed a cooperation framework agreement. The projects to be jointly invested include 100000 tons of granular silicon and about 10000 tons of electronic grade polysilicon, with a total investment of 12 billion yuan.
According to the announcement, the equity ratio of the two partners represented by the above two companies in the relevant project companies is proposed to be 40% and 60%.
The quality progress of granular silicon has also attracted much attention. When GCL technology just launched granular silicon at the end of 2020, the market inevitably questioned its excessive surface impurities, hydrogen jump phenomenon and inability to be used to manufacture n-type batteries.
In this regard, Jiang Limin responded to reporters, "it can be said responsibly that there are no fundamental obstacles to the problems such as hydrogen jump and powder that the market is worried about." He took the case of single crystal replacing polycrystalline in history as an example. The conversion efficiency of polycrystalline is naturally lower than that of single crystal; However, granular silicon has no disadvantages similar to natural silicon. At the production end, powder and hydrogen jump can be eliminated through secondary treatment. At the application end, there are also ways to prevent it from affecting the crystal drawing process.
Jiang Limin believes that after the launch of GCL granular silicon, these problems have been solved easily. Through the application of the company itself and downstream enterprises, it has won the demonstration and recognition of many customers. The later focus is to explore the paths and methods that can make it easier for customers to use granular silicon. "It will be realized in the future, but it's only a matter of time."
Jiang Limin said that for GCL technology, the top priority is to ensure that the four granular silicon bases under construction in Xuzhou, Leshan, Baotou and Hohhot are well planned and constructed on the premise of sufficient resources and personnel, so as to ensure the smooth start-up of new production capacity.
"We now have strategic cooperation with downstream manufacturers such as Zhonghuan, Jingao, Shuangliang and Shangji. However, since the production capacity of granular silicon has not been maximized, the proportion of market demand that can be met is still too small. At present, the monthly market demand of polysilicon in China is about 60000 tons, while the total supply of domestic and imported polysilicon is only 60000 tons, of which granular silicon accounts for only 5%, so it is urgent to build new production capacity." For the prospect of granular silicon, Jiang Limin is very optimistic, "just like when single crystal replaces polycrystalline, the market share of granular silicon will increase from 5% to 10%, 30% and then to 50%, and the whole process will advance rapidly."
The reporter noted that GCL technology said in its 2021 performance that it would strive to achieve 360000 tons of silicon material capacity in 2022. Jianglimin told the reporter that at present, the Xuzhou base has completed and reached the production capacity of 30000 tons of granular silicon, and is building another 30000 tons of production capacity. Both Leshan 100000 tons and Baotou 100000 tons are in the reverse construction period. They are under intensive construction and are expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year.
