Event: in March, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 8.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; Business income reached 81.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. Among them, the business volume in the same city reached 1.063 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%; The business volume in other places reached 7.341 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%; International / Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan business volume totaled 137 million, a year-on-year decrease of 32.7%.
Comments:
Affected by the epidemic situation in Shenzhen and Shanghai in March, some cities implemented closed management, which formed a great obstacle to express terminal distribution. At the same time, Jiangsu and other provinces closed some highway toll stations due to epidemic prevention requirements, resulting in poor transit transportation.
On April 12, the Ministry of transport issued a document requiring that it is strictly prohibited to block or close expressways and ordinary highways without authorization; It is strictly prohibited to simplify and apply one size fits all prevention and control measures. After the release of the notice, the problem of road transportation obstruction has been alleviated. However, at present, the road traffic volume in the Yangtze River Delta is far from returning to the normal level.
The business volume has decreased significantly affected by the epidemic and is currently in a slow recovery period: the epidemic has had a great impact on the business volume of the express industry, mainly due to the insufficient demand for production, transportation and consumption, as well as the difficulties in transit and distribution caused by the sealing and control of cities and roads. Before the outbreak, we expected the growth rate of business volume in March to be about 15%, so the actual business volume in March was about 20% lower than expected.
The throughput index of distribution center of express enterprises began to decline from mid March to the lowest value on April 5, and then began to rise slowly. During the Qingming Festival holiday (April 3-5), the national postal express industry delivered 690 million packages, a decrease of 12.8% over the same period in 2021. We believe that the data is highly representative. It is expected that the growth rate of the whole express industry will decline by more than 10% in April.
In March, the business volume growth of Tongda listed company was still significantly higher than the industry average. Compared with small and medium-sized express enterprises, the head enterprises have advantages in coping with special situations, and the data performance is reasonable. The growth rate of SF’s business volume is lower than the industry average, mainly because the company has actively optimized the product structure and reduced the number of low gross profit products since the second half of 2021.
The unit price of Tongda headquarters rose year-on-year: in March, the single piece income of Tongda headquarters increased year-on-year, among which Yunda increased the most, with a year-on-year increase of 18%, slightly exceeding the expectation. Although Yunda did not disclose the impact of the change of rookie wrapped settlement mode on the single piece income, even assuming that the change of settlement mode has an impact on the unit price of 0.1 yuan, the unit price can still increase by about 14% after deducting 0.1 yuan.
The impact of the epidemic is expected to continue until early May: from the perspective of duration, we believe that the impact of this round of epidemic on the industry will probably continue until early May. At present, Shanghai is gradually implementing the social aspect clearing. Assuming that the social aspect clearing task can be roughly completed by the end of April, the demand of the express industry is expected to return to a relatively normal level in mid May.
Risk tip: the duration of the epidemic exceeded expectations and the price war in the industry intensified; Labor costs have risen sharply; Policy changes, etc.
