[early trading strategy]
Technically, the Shanghai stock index opened low and closed low, and the index fell below 31703290. The box has a double bottom trend. The gem index hit a new low, which also fell below the recent shock range. The market has the trend of accelerating the bottom. At this stage, it is still necessary to control positions and avoid risks.
At present, the market is still facing a big test. On the one hand, the yield of US bonds has risen continuously. Under the upside down of interest rate difference between China and the United States and the expectation of RMB devaluation, the northward capital has flowed out for three consecutive days; On the other hand, the market's expected LPR adjustment failed yesterday. Although in theory, the probability of LPR adjustment is small on the basis of the unchanged MLF interest rate in the early stage, the market still pays high attention to it, so the market sentiment fell after the failure of the expectation of interest rate reduction. At the same time, the performance of several stocks with greater influence in the early stage was lower than expected, and the impact of covid-19 epidemic and commodity price rise on stock performance began to appear, causing market concern to a certain extent. In the short term, the market is still in the risk release stage. Investors need to pay attention to controlling risks and wait patiently for the market to be clear. However, at the current time point, we believe that investors can be cautious but should not be overly pessimistic. After substantial adjustment, the valuation advantage of the A-share market is becoming more and more obvious. At the same time, in the environment of continuous development of China's positive policies, the medium-term opportunities of A-shares are still worth looking forward to. In terms of allocation direction, it is suggested that bargain hunting pay attention to the expectation of the first quarter report and the direction of steady growth (nuclear power, 5g + industrial Internet, UHV, water conservancy and pipe gallery) and the real estate, building materials and other sectors that are expected to see marginal improvement in the industry boom under the continuous increase of policies. At the same time, it is also recommended to bargain hunting the tourism, hotel and catering sectors in the post epidemic cycle.
[message side]
1. The inventory is close to the historical low, and the risk of overseas metal position squeeze is controllable
Lunni's position pressing event shocked the global financial market. Recently, with the inventory of various metals falling to an all-time low, some people believe that relevant varieties will face the risk of short selling. In this context, the reporter of China Securities Journal interviewed a number of insiders to understand the current metal market inventory, trading position, premium increase and other situations. Insiders said that at present, the necessary conditions for closing positions are not available, and the overseas metal futures position squeeze is still expected, but the risk of closing positions is small.
2. LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, but the bank loan interest rate has room for reduction
On April 20, the latest loan market quotation rate (LPR) was released. According to the announcement of the national interbank lending center authorized by the people's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank"), on April 20, 2022, the LPR of one-year term is 3.7%, and the LPR of more than five years is 4.6%. The LPR of the two varieties is the same as that of the previous month. As of this quotation, the LPR has remained unchanged for three consecutive months.
3. Zhou Xiaochuan: China needs to optimize the carbon market incentive mechanism
On April 20, Zhou Xiaochuan, vice president of the Boao Forum for Asia, chief representative of China and President of the China Institute of finance, said at the sub forum of "achieving carbon neutrality: Government in action" of the Boao Forum for Asia 2022 annual meeting that next, China needs to optimize the carbon market incentive mechanism, and the direction of the optimization mechanism should be from spot to forward market, including futures, options, etc, The goal of incentive mechanism in the medium and long term is to guide investment.
4. The executive meeting of the State Council requested to determine measures to ensure and increase supply and improve the ability of energy to guarantee economic and social development
Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council on April 20 to deploy measures to further improve agricultural production in spring to ensure a bumper harvest of grain and stable supply of important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (6.970, 0.00, 0.00%); Determine measures to ensure and increase energy supply, and improve the guarantee capacity of energy for economic and social development.
