Abstract: the change of FuPan Maotai channel mode is essentially the process of channel flattening. Since the second half of 2021, we have further promoted marketing reform and strengthened market control. In 2022, we will implement digital reform and realize the accumulation of digital assets through e-commerce platforms. Based on the profit of recycling channels, Feitian Maotai has the theoretical premise of increasing the ex factory price / recommended retail price.
FuPan Maotai channel mode changes to realize direct marketing and flattening. The change of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) channel mode, the market-oriented reform from "business" mode to "business" mode, is essentially the process of channel flattening.
At present, Maotai liquor has formed two product series, Feitian Maotai liquor and non-standard Maotai liquor. Among them, Feitian Maotai liquor channel has formed four branches: dealers, direct sales, group marketing companies and franchised dealers. Dealers are still the main sales channel of Maotai liquor, and the proportion of direct sales has gradually increased. Since the reform of channel flattening and direct marketing, the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) report end has gradually recovered channel profits without directly increasing the ex factory price, realizing a steady increase in ton price. Since the direct selling channel came into force in 2018, the contribution of price increase is significantly greater than that of volume increase.
Maotai implements the digital marketing law and carries out the digital reform of e-commerce. In February 2022, Ding Xiongjun, chairman of Maotai, proposed the "five in one marketing method", which proposed the digital marketing method to build and improve the digital marketing platform. We believe that through the "I Maotai" e-commerce platform, we will gradually realize the online direct marketing of the whole product series of Maotai liquor + Series liquor, which is expected to accumulate digital assets in a long cycle, form Maotai's own controllable customer data and other digital assets, strengthen the use of data, organically integrate customer data and information from all channels, realize internal information sharing and unified management, and help accurately identify high net worth core customers, Make full use of the data system to implement data supervision on social dealers and other channel providers. Since the launch of "I Maotai" e-commerce platform on March 31, the number of subscription per capita has been about 8 million, which has become an important C-end traffic entrance of Maotai, or help Maotai accelerate the cultivation cycle of new products in the future.
Strengthen the control of the channel, and the channel profit can be recovered. Since Ding Xiongjun, chairman of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) board of directors of put forward the "five line" development path in August 2021, through the reform of marketing mechanism, the company has stabilized the first batch price of Feitian Maotai on the one hand, and strengthened the winery's control over the market price on the other hand. At present, the profit rates of full container / bulk bottle channels are about 170% / 190% respectively. Based on the profit of recycling channels, the company has the theoretical premise of increasing the ex factory price / suggested retail price.
Investment suggestions: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , a leading Baijiu enterprise, has gradually recovered channel profits through direct investment in the process of channel flat. Since 2022, digital reform has been carried out, and digital assets have been accumulated through the electronic business platform. Digital marketing law helps to inject new kinetic energy into Moutai marketing. Based on the profit of recycling channels, Feitian Maotai has the theoretical premise of increasing the ex factory price / recommended retail price. We believe that the trend of structural prosperity is unchanged, and the high end Baijiu liquor is recommended continuously: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) .
Risk tips: the adjustment of restrictive industrial policies exceeded expectations, the scattered occurrence and control of the epidemic affected the recovery of consumption scenes, and the prices of market dynamic sales and leading products were lower than expected.
