Down! On Thursday (April 21), the three major A-share indexes opened low and went low. The Shanghai index fell below the integer mark of 3100 points, and the transaction amount was slightly enlarged. In terms of hot spots, only the insurance industry received a weak red, while other concepts and industries fell to varying degrees. Five sectors, including chemical fertilizer and tourism hotels, fell by more than 6%. In the face of a large-scale decline, how should investors respond?
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.26% to 307981 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.70% to 1108428 points, and the gem index fell 2.17% to 231246 points; The total turnover of the two cities was 856.35 billion yuan, an increase of 4.35%, and the net purchase of funds from the North was 911 million yuan.
In terms of individual stocks, they rose less and fell more. A total of 336 stocks rose and 4423 stocks fell. Among them, 42 stocks closed at the daily limit and 127 stocks fell by the limit. From the perspective of the industry, the industries with more trading stocks are food and beverage, textile and clothing and commercial snacks. In addition, it is noteworthy that today, CNOOC successfully landed on the main board of Shanghai. The dragon and tiger list shows that there are 959 million yuan of institutional seat funds net buying the stock, ranking first in the list of institutional buying.
Trading limit of individual stocks on Thursday (April 21): p align = “center” tabulation: Zhao Ziqiang
For the downward trend of a shares, institutions generally said that at present, the market is close to the medium and long-term bottom, so we must maintain confidence.
Fed Securities: from a technical point of view, the Shanghai stock index is approaching 3023 points again. The early stage bottom support range, and the gem index is also approaching the early box support. The probability of rebound in this position is relatively large. In general, the probability of bottom recovery on Friday is relatively large, which is also a time window for low absorption in the short term. The more difficult times are, the more confidence we should maintain.
Xiangcai Securities: nearly 95% of the stocks in the two cities fell, which is a relatively rare state in the near future, and the recent hot spots have also been suppressed. However, from the perspective of the past market, there is a feature that the hot spots that have just got up are briefly suppressed by the general trend. Once the market environment is slightly eased, there will be a state of continuous activity. Of course, the premise is that the hot spots that have just emerged, rather than the hot spots that have been greatly hyped and seriously overdrawn before.
At the same time, public funds, private placement and other institutions have also put forward their views on the future market. Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin Wealth Investment Fund: there are trading opportunities after short-term oversold, so be cautious in operation.
He Jinlong, general manager of Meili Investment: one of the reasons for today’s decline is that snowball products are hammered in intensively. The hedging transactions of securities companies will cause collective selling, resulting in a run. In addition, the listing of CNOOC, a large cap stock, triggered a diversion of funds, which affected market sentiment. The market opened low and went low. The selling pressure greatly affected the confidence of the market.
Hu Bo, manager of Rongzhi investment fund of private placement paipai.com: the market was originally depressed recently, and then under the impact of multiple negative factors, A-Shares have been greatly adjusted. First, the recent breaking of new shares in the market has an impact on market liquidity; Second, the performance of the recent annual report of growth stocks is lower than the market expectation, causing investors to worry about negative factors at the performance level; Third, the enthusiasm of the whole market is difficult to sustain. The funds are concentrated in some small sectors for heating, and the hot spots are not sustainable. The expectation of interest rate reduction has failed, killing the enthusiasm of the whole market to do more; Fourth, we can see the phenomenon of throwing out regardless of cost, which has a great impact on short-term market confidence; Fifthly, under the repeated epidemic, the market is worried about the smooth industrial chain and logistics. The RMB exchange rate has depreciated sharply, and the export concerns are also increasing, which makes the market worry more and more about the economic level. However, we believe that the market has been fully adjusted and the characteristics of the bottom region are obvious. The short-term pessimism does not affect the investment value of a shares. At present, we only need to wait patiently for the liquidity problems and the tail risk to be fully exposed, and then we can actively layout.
Wang Lei, director of Jurong asset investment: the short-term market pressure remains. First, the survival concerns of some enterprises cannot be alleviated. Second, the market decline is easy to bring secondary disasters. However, in the medium and long term, the stock market valuation is in the bottom range and the allocation value is prominent. At the same time, with the listing of covid-19 in China, the pressure of epidemic prevention and control will be weakened, and the enterprise fundamentals and market confidence will be effectively restored.
Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times: focus on industries with reversed fundamentals on bargain hunting, such as optional consumer goods, including tourism and other offline consumption, automobile industry chain, luxury goods, and upstream price rise cycle stocks such as steel and chemical industry.
hot spot: insurance became the only rising sector
The insurance sector rose 0.06%, and other concepts and industries fell to varying degrees. Five sectors, including chemical fertilizer and tourism hotels, fell by more than 6%.
According to the news, on April 21, the opinions of the general office of the State Council on promoting the development of individual pension was released, which defined the participation scope, system mode, payment level, investment and receipt of individual pension. Analysts believe that this is good for the insurance sector.
CICC analysts said that this means that from a long-term perspective, the capital scale of individual pension accounts is expected to exceed trillion yuan. In terms of investment methods, the optional types include financial products such as bank financing, commercial endowment insurance and public funds. On the one hand, the system construction is conducive to the development of new businesses of relevant banks, insurance, public funds and other financial institutions. On the other hand, it is also expected to bring new types of long-term investors to the capital market. From the experience of mature markets such as the United States, the establishment of pension insurance systems such as 401k plan in history has brought long-term funds to the U.S. capital market and played a good supporting role in the long-term and steady development of the U.S. stock market.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) is expected to bring an incremental scale of 120 billion yuan / year to the asset management industry, and wealth management institutions with investment consulting ability and institutions with asset management ability will benefit more. Under the influence of the preferential tax policy, people with an estimated monthly income of more than 10000 yuan (5000 yuan tax exemption + about 4000 yuan special deduction) are willing to reduce the tax base by participating in the individual pension policy. Assuming that the number of people with a monthly income of more than 10000 yuan is 20 million, of which 50% are willing to participate in personal pension, it will bring an annual increment of 120 billion yuan to the asset management industry. It is expected that wealth management institutions with investment advisory ability and institutions with asset management ability will take personal pension as a customer acquisition product, which is conducive to improving the repurchase rate, resulting in the improvement of management scale.
In terms of investment suggestions, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that the introduction of individual pension policy will effectively improve residents’ awareness of wealth management and asset management, promote the scale of asset management in the industry and maintain the overweight rating. At present, wealth management institutions with strong investment advisory ability and institutions with asset management advantages will have more advantages. It is suggested to increase their holdings of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) .
freezing point: fertilizer sector fell 6.91%
On Thursday, the fertilizer industry led the decline. The chemical fertilizer industry index reported 146103 points, down 6.91%, with a turnover of 16.862 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 4.11%. Four stocks in the sector fell by the limit.
Although the fertilizer industry is still optimistic about the highest decline. Kaiyuan Securities said that under the background of the gradual balance between supply and demand and the increasing importance of grain, the prosperity of the fertilizer industry bottomed out and rebounded, and the price opened an upward channel. According to the data, as of April 14, China’s urea, monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizer reported 2925 yuan / ton, 3600 yuan / ton, 3970 yuan / ton and 4940 yuan / ton respectively, up 57.3%, 77.3%, 60.1% and 148.2% compared with the beginning of 2021. In addition, the price of overseas chemical fertilizer is generally higher than that of China, and the export of chemical fertilizer is profitable.
