Compared with the photovoltaic industry, the innovation speed of fans is not very fast, but the continuity of know-how at the manufacturing end is stronger, and the business form and pattern are relatively stable.
Relying on the large-scale fan to increase the wind capture efficiency and reduce the production cost of a single MW, the innovation process of large-scale fan is more "gradual" improvement than the pattern remodeling brought by the replacement of many disruptive photovoltaic technologies. Take photovoltaic cell manufacturers as an example to see the competition pattern. From 2011 to 2020, the industry leaders changed their owners several times, and the pattern is highly subversive. In terms of the share ranking of wind power main engine plants, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) has been the leader for 10 consecutive years from 2011 to 2020. The top three main engine plants Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , prospective energy, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) pattern has also remained relatively stable for 5 consecutive years from 2016 to 2020, and the targets of relevant parts of the industrial chain may be long.
Under the influence of the double factors of large-scale trend and price competition of main engine manufacturers, the output value of the whole industrial chain is deflated, and investment opportunities are bred in the cost reduction race of the whole industrial chain. In the development process of the industry, taking the onshore fan as an example, it took nearly 8 years for 3MW capacity to replace 750kW, 1.5MW and other models to become the mainstream model market. In 2021, 4MW fan quickly entered the market and became the main model. The introduction and iteration of 5MW / 6MW models were accelerated, forming a virtuous circle of "large-scale - cost reduction - large-scale - large-scale". From the installed capacity data, 41.6gw of land wind will be lifted in 2021, and 60GW will be added in 2025 (65gw will be added every year in the 14th five year plan, which is in the range of 60-70gw. We assume that 2025 is at the upper limit of the range, minus 10GW installed capacity of sea wind). The average bidding price of 4MW model in 2021 is 2500 yuan / kW, and the average bidding price of 8mW model in 2025 is expected to be 1400 yuan / kW (no more than 1500 yuan / kW). The output value of main engine link will be reduced from 104 billion yuan in 2021 to 84 billion yuan in 2025, CAGR is - 5.2%. We will focus on the opportunity of reducing the output value of main engine and supporting parts in different stages of main engine plant and operation, which will force us to reduce the output value of main engine and parts in different stages of main engine plant and operation.
"Anti deflation" and "cost compression" are the core concerns in the selection of fan parts. Under the current pressure on the cost side, the parts with strong "anti deflation" attribute are preferred.
The specific manifestations of the "anti deflation" attribute of parts and components include value upgrading (compared with the increase in the proportion of value in the large-scale trend of main engine plants), domestic substitution and price rigidity (capacity bottleneck and strong bargaining power). The representative links include: ① bearing, high technical barriers, obvious domestic substitution trend, and the proportion of relative value introduced by independent pitch technology will increase in the future; ② For castings and forgings, the investment cost is high, the production expansion cycle is long, there is a certain capacity gap, and the price is rigid. ③ For the tower, the competition pattern is stable and the pricing is relatively independent. The main engine factory will not make its own, which benefits from the increase of downstream installed capacity. ④ The large-scale tower lifting equipment brings product upgrading and market expansion, which involves personal safety. In order to prevent Jerry building, the main engine factory will not easily lower the price.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) , etc
Risk warning: the new installed capacity of wind power is less than expected; The market competition of complete machine factory intensifies, further squeezing the profit space of parts and components; The cost reduction rate of parts enterprises is lower than expected
