Event: Premier Li Keqiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council on April 20 to deploy measures to further improve agricultural production in spring to ensure a bumper harvest of grain and a stable supply of important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) crops; Determine measures to ensure and increase energy supply, and improve the guarantee capacity of energy for economic and social development.
The background of "stabilizing prices" is the high inflation in overseas developed countries, and the inflation situation in China has changed to some extent. Since the outbreak, the global supply chain has been repeatedly impacted, and commodity prices have risen sharply. This year's geopolitical crisis in Russia and Ukraine has further impacted the supply of bulk commodities such as crude oil, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and some metals. Major developed economies such as the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro zone generally present a relatively severe inflation situation. In order to curb inflation, the monetary policy authorities of major developed economies represented by the Federal Reserve have successively turned to austerity. The short-term interest rate hike curbed demand, brought obvious uncertainty to the US economy, and there were "recessions" such as upside down of treasury bond yields in the financial market
Signs. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, China has resumed work rapidly and its trade surplus has increased rapidly. On the one hand, it provides a basis for the relative restraint of stimulus policies. On the other hand, the strong RMB exchange rate reduces the impact of imported inflation. At the same time, the downward trend of China's "pig cycle" also makes China's inflation situation "stand out" with strong endogenous characteristics. In the future, the trade surplus is expected to fall gradually, and the RMB exchange rate may also be adjusted gradually, aggravating the pressure of imported inflation. The suppression of pig prices on CPI gradually disappeared, and China's inflation gradually tended to rise for a period of time.
Recently, the importance of "stabilizing prices" has been emphasized many times by the policy statement, and its importance has increased significantly. The current economic situation is facing multiple pressures. Maintaining price stability is of great significance for preserving the power space of fiscal and monetary policies. The national Standing Committee proposed two "stabilizing prices" of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and energy prices
Focus on the "non core inflation" project. Specifically, in terms of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price, the national Standing Committee proposed to "pay close attention to agricultural production in spring and ensure a bumper grain harvest throughout the year". In terms of energy, the national Standing Committee proposed to "strengthen energy supply, take precautions, promote the commencement and construction of energy projects with mature conditions and development needs, and promote the continuous optimization of energy structure". In response to these requirements, the national Standing Committee proposed two quantitative targets of "300 million tons of new coal production capacity this year" and "the scale of reconstruction (coal-fired power units) in the whole year exceeds 220 million KW", and approved three nuclear power projects.
Under the supply guarantee policy, the price of thermal coal will remain stable this year, and the prices of coking coal and coke with large increase in the early stage may tend to fall. Strengthening the transformation of coal-fired power units and approving nuclear power projects match the policy tone of the current financial force and appropriate advance construction of infrastructure, which is expected to bring a certain pulling effect on investment.
Investment suggestion: the measures related to "price stabilization" in the fields of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , energy arranged by the national standing committee will help to keep the prices of China's middle and upper reaches products relatively stable in the future, which will reduce the squeeze on the profits of downstream industries. In addition, it is mentioned that strengthening the transformation of coal-fired power units and approving nuclear power projects will bring certain benefits to the steady growth sector, especially the relevant power equipment and nuclear power industry. At the meeting of the Finance Committee in March, the end of the market policy was defined. With the gradual control of the epidemic, the probability of the second quarter was the end of the economy in the year, and then there may be a market end.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn accelerated; The implementation of the policy is not as expected; Repeated outbreaks.