On April 21, CNOOC officially landed in the capital market, and “three barrels of oil” finally gathered in a shares.
In view of the stock price performance of the previous three operators when they gathered a shares, the industry is generally concerned about whether CNOOC’s return to a will break? Will there be a “pumping effect” on the A-share market?
“After CNOOC’s listing, it will cause capital diversion in the short term, and some funds invested in the same industry will be diverted. But in the long run, it has little impact, and it depends more on the quality of the company itself.” Wang Jiyue, a senior reporter of PetroChina daily, said that the stock price of PetroChina and PetroChina daily may not be smaller after their listing.
According to the issuance arrangement, CNOOC will use the “green shoe” mechanism in this issuance, that is, within 30 days of listing, the lead underwriter will buy shares in call auction at a price not higher than the issuance price according to the market conditions. “This mechanism is conducive to stabilizing the performance of new shares after listing. If the performance of new shares is poor and falls below the issue price, you can start the ‘green shoe’ mechanism to buy in the secondary market.” Insiders told the reporter of Securities Daily.
high oil price “three barrels of oil” profitable period
CNOOC has always been a big dividend payer. According to the reporter, in the 20 years since the listing of Hong Kong stocks, CNOOC has accumulated dividends of HK $354.2 billion, ranking fourth in the Hong Kong stock dividend ranking and first in the Hong Kong stock energy industry. The average dividend payout rate of the company is 43%, and the cumulative rate of return since listing is 1610%.
In the strategic outlook for 2022, CNOOC mentioned that the annual dividend payment rate of the company is expected to be no less than 40% from 2022 to 2024 on the premise that the proposed dividend of each year is approved by the general meeting of shareholders; Regardless of the company’s operating performance, the absolute value of the annual dividend in the next three years is expected to be no less than HK $0.70 per share (including tax).
Under the high oil price, CNOOC’s performance also reached the best level in history. According to the annual report, CNOOC achieved oil and gas sales revenue of 222.1 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 59.1%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 70.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.7%.
Xinda securities research report said that with the support of this round of raised funds, CNOOC’s oil and gas development scale ushered in a new round of growth and the company’s valuation ushered in repair opportunities. Unlike onshore integrated oil companies such as Sinopec and PetroChina, CNOOC is the largest offshore upstream oil and gas production leader in China and the world’s largest independent oil and gas exploration and production company. CNOOC’s return to a this time also further enriched the stock types of A-share market and filled the gap in pure upstream oil and gas stocks in the Chinese market.
Benefiting from the high crude oil price, the profitability of oil enterprises has increased greatly. Since this year, international oil prices have remained high and volatile.
“In 2022, affected by multiple factors, crude oil prices continue to reach new highs.” Xi Jiarui, a crude oil analyst at jinlianchuang, told the Securities Daily, “geopolitical events will not bottom out in the short term and will have a significant impact on oil prices in the year. The high and wide fluctuation of crude oil prices this year will be the mainstream trend.”
In the context of high oil prices, “three barrels of oil” have stepped up exploration and development. In this regard, Li Yan, an analyst of Longzhong information crude oil industry, told the Securities Daily, “high oil prices are good for upstream exploration and development, so there is room for profit improvement.”
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) research report mentioned that under the background of the downturn of global crude oil capital expenditure, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC insisted on increasing capital expenditure and made a breakthrough in oil and gas reserves under the strategic guidance of “increasing reserves and increasing production”, which is expected to benefit from the high prospect of the industry in the long run.
accelerate the transformation to low-carbon new energy
Although the high oil price has ensured the profitability of “three barrels of oil”, on the whole, the “three barrels of oil” has accelerated the layout of new energy in recent years.
Under the goal of “double carbon”, the new energy business is expected to bring business increment to CNOOC. On the one hand, CNOOC continued to increase investment in the natural gas field and strengthen the exploration, development and production activities of natural gas fields. On the other hand, CNOOC has set up a new energy department to develop new energy business, accelerate the development of offshore wind power, and develop land-based scenery integration projects.
According to the plan, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, CNOOC plans to obtain 5-10 GW of offshore wind power resources, realize the installed capacity of 1.5 million KW, and 5 GW of onshore wind power and photovoltaic resources, and put into operation 5 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) million KW. It is estimated that by 2025, CNOOC’s investment in new energy business will reach 5% – 10% of the annual capital expenditure.
Dai Houliang, chairman of PetroChina, said at the performance briefing in 2021 that the company has formulated a timetable and roadmap for carbon peak and carbon neutralization, followed the three-step overall deployment of “clean substitution, strategic succession and green transformation”, promoted the implementation of green industrial layout, and promoted the transformation of PetroChina into an oil, gas, heat, electricity and hydrogen integrated energy company.
Sinopec also said that the company accelerated the pace of low-carbon energy transformation, actively arranged hydrogen energy, photovoltaic and charging and replacement businesses, and focused on building a comprehensive energy service provider of “oil, gas, hydrogen and electricity services”.
“The advantage of the transformation of ‘three barrels of oil’ to new energy lies in the user base. For example, Sinopec and PetroChina have a large number of gas stations and a huge customer base. The transformed new energy can build new charging piles or photovoltaic devices on the basis of existing gas stations, which is very conducive to promotion and acceptance by terminals.” Li Yan said.
