Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the two core factors restricting the market have not changed significantly
So far, the two core factors restricting the market have not changed significantly, and even the constraints are still strengthening. Therefore, in the short term, the market is expected to remain in the stage of weak shock and bottom grinding: one of the core factors is that the monetary tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve is still in the process of strengthening. Recently, Fed officials’ speeches have become more and more hawkish, driving the market’s expectations of monetary tightening. In May, the interest rate meeting raised interest rates sharply and the table reduction is about to be launched. The US bond yield continues to soar rapidly and even caused the inversion of the interest rate gap between China and the United States. On the one hand, it causes the continuous decline of US stocks, thus curbing the risk appetite of a shares, and on the other hand, it restricts the space for China’s short-term monetary policy easing.
The second core factor is that the introduction time and strength of the steady growth policy are lower than market expectations, which is difficult to reverse the market’s pessimistic expectations of the future economic prospects. The epidemic has significantly inhibited consumption and even impacted some manufacturing industries. The real estate boom is still in a weak downward trend, and the impact on the economy has not yet fully appeared. With the combination of restrained standard cuts, failed interest rate cuts, slow wide credit rhythm, weak credit demand and other pressures, economic expectations have become continuously pessimistic.
Therefore, before at least one of these two core factors is significantly improved, the market risk appetite is expected to remain depressed in the short term, and the market will continue to be weak. The short-term weakness does not change the pattern of excellent performance price ratio in the medium and long term of the market. The valuation of the main A-share index after deep and substantial adjustment has fallen sharply to the low position of the center, and even some industries have been absolutely underestimated.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities: poor performance of economic data in March! The economic fundamentals in the second quarter still depend largely on the epidemic situation
The overall performance of the economic data in March was poor, which was significantly weaker than that from January to February. Only the growth rate of infrastructure investment increased, and the impact of the epidemic and the deterioration of the real estate situation on the fundamentals was obvious. However, the economic performance from January to February was relatively strong, superimposed with the low base effect. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 4.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year, still within a reasonable range. If the base factor is deducted, the real GDP growth rate in the first quarter is slightly higher than that in the third quarter of last year and lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year.
Judging from the current time point, the economic fundamentals in the second quarter still depend largely on the changes of the epidemic situation. The epidemic in April is expected to have an impact on the economy, but we judge that the impact is gradually weakened: on the one hand, the policy level promotes the smooth flow and resumption of work and production, and the impact of the epidemic on the supply side is expected to be weakened; Second, from the data point of view, the number of newly diagnosed people in a single day has dropped. In addition to the epidemic situation, we still need to pay attention to measures to stabilize growth. It is more difficult to achieve economic goals. Measures to stabilize growth in the second quarter are expected to increase, which is expected to form a certain support for the economy. In addition, from the perspective of expectation difference, the current economic difference has become the consensus expectation of the market. Under multiple constraints, there is no room for imagination in the short term. Economic fundamentals and monetary policy are difficult to become obvious beneficial factors again.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : the RRR reduction came on schedule but was not as strong as expected
On April 15, the RRR reduction came as scheduled, but the intensity was less than expected. After the national standing committee meeting, the market has strong expectations for easing under the environment of increasing downward pressure on the economy due to the recent recurrence of the epidemic. The RRR reduction is not only lower than the market expectation (this RRR reduction is the lowest in history, at least 50bp before), but also the policy interest rate has not been reduced. The contradiction between China’s and US policies is constrained by China’s inflation or the central bank’s substantial easing. Growth stocks will perform weaker than value during this period, both A-Shares and US stocks.
Under the background that the risk appetite has not been fully repaired, the repair of profitability / fundamentals is more dominant. For example, the recent shortage of resource products due to peripheral conflicts and the dominant offline consumption due to the stage repair of the epidemic last week are essentially the logic of the market looking for the most profitable industries.
Anxin Securities: the first quarterly report of A-Shares is facing considerable downward pressure, and the manufacturing industry has encountered “double attack”
Facing the impact of cost (long-term factors) and epidemic (short-term factors), the first quarterly report of A-Shares is facing considerable downward pressure. Under the background of high bulk prices in the first quarter and the rebound of China’s epidemic situation, not only the profit of the service industry worsened, but also the manufacturing industry suffered “double attack”. Many enterprises clearly mentioned the severe negative impact on production and operation caused by epidemic prevention and control measures and supply chain disturbance in the performance forecast.
At the same time, the upstream profits have soared, the repair of the middle and lower reaches has been delayed, and the contradiction of “increasing income without increasing profits” is still prominent, showing a fragmented situation of “too full in the upstream and hungry in the downstream”. The rise of inventories in the middle and lower reaches under sluggish demand is noteworthy. It is expected that there will be downward pressure on the gross profit margin and asset turnover rate of all a (non) sales in the first half of this year, but more importantly, there are signs of “unintentional” shrinkage in the balance sheet of the enterprise, This is the biggest worry about the fundamentals of a shares.
Here, we maintain that the first half of the year of A-Shares is in the stage of profit decline, and it is expected that there is still pressure on the whole A-share profit in the first quarter. At the same time, we maintain the prediction that the bottom of this round of economy is in the second quarter and the bottom of A-share profit is in Q3.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : pressure or rise of cross-border capital outflow in the second quarter
The pressure of cross-border capital outflow will rise in the second quarter. This pressure mainly comes from four aspects: first, under the background of the reduction of bonds held by global investment institutions, the narrowing and even upside down of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, the pressure of capital outflow from the bond market will continue. In February and March 2022, foreign capital reduced about 192 billion yuan of bonds in the inter-bank market, and this outflow will continue in the second quarter.
In the second and second quarters, the external debt repayment pressure of Chinese real estate enterprises increased significantly compared with the first quarter. According to Bloomberg data, the repayment scale in the second quarter was about US $18 billion (about US $55 billion in 2022). Considering that it is difficult for Chinese real estate enterprises to issue new and repay old debts abroad, in addition to the realization of overseas assets, some debts may have to be repaid by converting Chinese funds into US dollars;
The third and second quarters are usually the time when Chinese enterprises pay more dividends. Taking Mao index, which has a large proportion of foreign capital, as an example, its constituent companies mainly pay dividends from May to July. Foreign capital is also likely to be converted into US dollars and flow out of China after receiving dividends.
Fourth, due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, the scale of offshore RMB time deposits may decline significantly. Overseas institutions and individuals often use offshore time deposits to carry out interest arbitrage and foreign exchange arbitrage. With the decline of RMB deposit interest rate and the expectation of depreciation, some deposits will also be converted into US dollars for outflow.
Huajin Securities: the slight rise in the P / E ratio and the spread of new shares are expected to affect the enthusiasm of new shares
From the data of new shares, the slight rise in the P / E ratio of new shares and the spread of new shares are still expected to affect the enthusiasm of new shares, and the return trend of valuation premium in the near end new shares sector compared with the secondary market will also inhibit the activity of the near end new shares sector to a certain extent. Therefore, we tend to think that the overall investment sentiment of new shares may still linger in a relatively depressed range.
In the short term, the investment of new shares may still focus on looking for structural opportunities; On the one hand, for newly listed new shares, due to the cold mood of new shares and frequent sharp breaks, and some new shares with good fundamentals fall into the relative investment value range after opening, there may be a short rebound caused by event catalysis or emotional catalysis; On the other hand, although the near-end new shares are in the premium range compared with the mass entrepreneurship and innovation sector as a whole, the average adjustment range has exceeded 40% from the high level, among which there are many popular stocks in high boom industries. Under the background of overweight and loose monetary policy, there is a possibility of short-term recovery of trading enthusiasm.
Capital Securities: Geopolitics, China’s epidemic, the implementation of stable growth policy and the upward range of US debt have certain variables
GDP growth in the first quarter was basically in line with the consensus expectations of the market, and the economic operation logic reflected by the data was also relatively clear: the epidemic is the core variable affecting the current economic recovery, and the policy has made efforts to hedge the economic downturn. In addition, the weakness of real estate has not changed significantly, and the manufacturing industry is still resilient due to weak external demand. However, it is necessary to observe the adverse impact of the continuous impact of the follow-up epidemic on China’s supply chain.
In the short term, there are certain variables in geopolitics, the trend of China’s epidemic, the implementation of stable growth policy and the upward range of US debt. It is suggested to follow up and wait-and-see and respond flexibly. The undervalued value is still relatively dominant, but the structural differentiation may enter the middle and late stage. The Treasury bond yield center may remain low in the current range, and it may take some time for the market to repair economic expectations.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : see the bottom order of sectors from history! High Dividend Stocks index heavy fund stocks
Since the beginning of the year, under the combined action of the Fed’s interest rate increase, the external situation conflict and China’s epidemic disturbance, the A share market has not performed well overall. Top note is on the basis of the historical and historical value of the major indexes.
The time and space of the current round of adjustment of CSI 300 has been relatively obvious, and the valuation has been close to the level at the beginning of 2019. In mid March this year, it almost returned to the level at the end of March 2020. The time and space of this round of adjustment is not as long as history, but the valuation has been at a low level, which was close to the level at the end of March 2020 in mid March this year. Gem refers to the current valuation has been at a historically low level. Compared with other indexes, the gem has been established for a short time and fluctuates greatly, which has little reference significance for adjusting time and space. We mainly look at the adjustment of the gem index from the perspective of valuation. From the perspective of PE and risk premium rate, the current gem index is more attractive than at the end of March 2020.
According to the bottom order analysis, High Dividend Stocks index heavy fund stocks. We review the history of stabilization and bottoming of A-share market since 2010. Referring to the market bottom situation divided by us in the early stage, we select the bottom area of 12 / 01, 16 / 01 and 19 / 01. We can find that the market structure feature of stabilization and bottoming stage is that High Dividend Stocks take the lead in stabilizing sideways, then the index bottoms, and the heavy position stocks of the fund will stabilize after covering the decline. At present, in the process of the market bottoming out, the two characteristics of High Dividend Stocks bottoming out and fund heavy position stocks covering the decline have emerged. High Dividend Stocks bottomed out in August 2021, and then began to fluctuate upward. The overall market stabilized in mid March this year, and the compensatory decline of fund heavy positions has also occurred recently, which is in line with the law when the market bottomed in history.
