The A-share market fluctuated downward for two consecutive trading days. On April 20, the Shanghai stock index closed below 3100 points.
Based on the latest views of a number of first-line private placement after hours, private placement institutions are generally waiting for the market trend to become clear. Some private equity institutions believe that the market is expected to usher in a double bottom near the top low points of major stock indexes such as Shanghai index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300, and the Shanghai stock index is expected to have “strong support” at the first line of 3000 points. In addition, the performance difference between growth style and undervalued style has widened sharply. The anti falling characteristics of steady growth and large consumption have also become the focus of private placement industry.
major stock index callback approaches early low
On April 21, the small and medium-sized market value indexes such as CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell by 3.31% and 4.06% respectively throughout the day, and the callback range was significantly greater than that of weighted indexes such as SSE 50.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 307981, less than 60 points from the year’s low of 302330 on March 16.
is expected to usher in the “end of W”
For the current long and short research and judgment of a shares, Xingshi investment deputy general manager and chief research official Lei pointed out that “the current market is digesting negative factors” and “the valuation shows that the market has entered the value area, and the medium and long-term investment value of the market will further appear after the risk is released”. On the whole, Xingshi investment believes that it has great determination to “steady growth” in policy this year, and still maintains a relatively positive attitude towards the future market of a shares, and believes that now may be an important opportunity to obtain medium and long-term returns in the market. From the perspective of structural opportunities, the consumer sector is more cost-effective. Since this year, the valuation pressure of the growth sector has been significantly released, and there are also structural opportunities.
Bao Xiaohui, chairman of Changli assets, said that the main reasons for the recent market decline are external and internal factors. In terms of external factors, it mainly includes that the situation in Russia and Ukraine tends to be tense again, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May; In terms of internal causes, the repeated impact of the epidemic in a few areas on the economy, the short-term adjustment of the RMB exchange rate, the outflow of northward funds for many days, and the reduction of market risk appetite. On the whole, “in the recent market correction process, the value style is obviously stronger than the growth style, and the trend of large cap stocks is stronger than that of small cap stocks. This disk feature and trend deserve special attention”. Bao Xiaohui said.
Bao Xiaohui expects that the Shanghai index will be a strong support position at the first line of 3000 points. If the Shanghai stock index goes further down, the market may also have new favorable policies to release and fund bottom reading, and the market is likely to usher in a “W bottom”. In addition, while adhering to the fixed income + strategy as the core strategy of absolute income, the institution will gradually start building positions on the left in the near future, and continue to be optimistic about the large market value sectors such as banking, real estate, non banking and consumption, as well as the sectors related to bulk commodities.
focus on these structural features
Ding Bingzhong, an asset partner of the 1898 movement, said that in the new round of market adjustment in recent trading days, there were “two obvious main lines” in a shares. First, under the force of steady growth, excellent companies in the large infrastructure industry chain and real estate industry chain are more likely to be favored by institutions and other funds. Second, the large consumption sector as a whole has obviously bucked the trend and resisted the decline, which may mean that the “valuation killing” of the large consumption sector since 2021 has been completed.
Wang Aoye, director of Qinmu asset research, believes that the recent phased decline of gem index and Kechuang 50 is deeper than that of the main board. Affected by the epidemic in some regions and the rise of US bond yield, the risk appetite of the market has decreased periodically, and the pressure faced by growth stocks is the most prominent. “As of today’s closing, since the bottom rebound of A-Shares on March 16, the yield difference between the coal sector with the strongest performance and the new energy industry with the worst performance has reached 38 percentage points, which is extremely rare in history; this also shows that the correlation between the decline of growth stocks and the self worth of growth stocks continues to decline.”. Wang Aoye said.
Wang Aoye said that from the perspective of various long and short factors, the probability of A-share market in the second quarter was a volatile pattern. At present, the agency will focus on the opportunities of some high-quality growth enterprises from a medium – and long-term perspective, including scientific and technological growth, high-end manufacturing and consumption recovery.
Ding Bingzhong said: “at present, the A shares near the 3000 point of the Shanghai Stock Index belong to the strategic position building period or position adding period. We will actively select leading companies in the large consumer industry and excellent companies in the infrastructure industry chain under the expectation of steady growth for robust allocation”.
