The most powerful bulls in the past suddenly became "big bears".
at the beginning of 2022, the national large fund started the reduction action again. On January 10, two holdings reduction announcements of A-Shares attracted market attention:
Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) (300672): the National IC industry fund plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 3.64 million shares, with a reduction ratio of no more than 2%;
Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300474) (300474): the National IC industry fund plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 6024800 shares, with a reduction ratio of no more than 2%;
Based on the latest share price, if the large fund reduces its holdings of two chip stocks, the total amount of cash out reaches 1.411 billion yuan. Thus, the reduction and exit plan of the first phase of the national large fund for chip stocks continues.
the "national team" reduced its holdings of two chip bull stocks
just now, the national large fund has thrown out two more holdings reduction announcements. Does that mean that the exit plan in 2022 is officially launched?
On January 10, Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) announced that the shareholder national integrated circuit industry investment fund Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "integrated circuit fund") plans to reduce the company's shares by means of centralized competitive trading within 6 months after 15 trading days from the date of disclosure, i.e. no more than 3.64 million shares, i.e. no more than 2% of the company's total share capital.
As of the closing on January 10, the latest share price of Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) was 160.97 yuan / share. Based on this calculation, the total market value of the reduction of the top grid of large funds was about 586 million yuan. According to the announcement, as of January 10, the national integrated circuit fund held Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) 22723500 shares, accounting for 12.62% of the total share capital.
It is worth mentioning that Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) is one of the hot bull stocks in 2021. The biggest increase from February to November 2021 is more than 555%. The position of Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) held by national large funds is profitable.
Coincidentally, on January 10, another chip stock Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300474) also disclosed the reduction announcement. The shareholder national integrated circuit industry investment fund Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "national integrated circuit fund") plans to reduce the company's shares by centralized bidding within 6 months after 15 trading days from the date of disclosure of this announcement, That is, not more than 2% of the total share capital of the company.
Similarly, Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300474) is also one of the big bull stocks in 2021, with a maximum increase of more than 225% in 2021. Based on the latest share price, the market value of the reduction of the top grid of the large fund is about 825 million yuan. Up to now, the National IC fund holds Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300474) 27536600 shares, accounting for 9.14% of the total share capital.
According to these two announcements, the main reason for the reduction of two chip stocks by the national large fund is to achieve good returns to shareholders.
core shortage tide, chip stock performance burst
Obviously, from the stock price performance in 2021, the chip industry has just experienced a high-profile year, and the global chip production capacity is in a tight state. The tide of core shortage and price rise almost run through the whole year of 2021. At the same time, the trend of global semiconductor industry transfer to China continues. Under the superposition of the two, China's semiconductor industry chain is in short supply.
Semiconductor boom continues, or gradually enters the performance cashing period. Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300474) also disclosed the performance forecast for 2021 while disclosing the reduction announcement. The annual profit is expected to be 270 million yuan - 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.9% - 54.4%; The annual operating revenue was RMB 1.08 billion to RMB 1.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 65.2% - 83.6%. During the reporting period, the performance increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the substantial growth of product sales in the field of chips and the stable year-on-year growth of product sales in the field of graphic display and control.
Up to now, few chip companies have disclosed the annual performance forecast. According to the data, Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) , Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) , Broadex Technologies Co.Ltd(300548) and other stocks have disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, all of which have achieved positive year-on-year growth.
Among them, Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) has the best performance. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 460 million to 540 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 124.7% to 163.7%. The main reason for the performance growth is that the growth of net profit is driven by the growth of operating revenue and gross profit margin of intelligent hardware, intelligent vehicle and codec products.
Another manifestation of the high outlook of the global chip industry in 2021 is the performance of TSMC, the global chip leader. On January 10, TSMC's official website released a financial report that the company's sales in the fourth quarter of 2021 was NT $438.19 billion (about 100.9 billion yuan), setting a record for the sixth consecutive quarter. In December, the sales reached NT $155.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%. In 2021, the annual sales reached NT $1587.42 billion (about RMB 365.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 18.5%, all setting a record.
why do large funds reduce their holdings?
So the question is, why did big funds suddenly choose to reduce their holdings and cash out when the boom of the chip industry broke out? Does it mean that the high point of chip prosperity has passed?
In fact, in the reduction plan disclosed by large funds, the reason given is to recover investment costs and their own capital needs.
From the beginning of the establishment of the large fund, the time point of investment recovery has been planned. According to public information, the first phase of the national large fund was established in September 2014. The investment plan is 15 years, which is divided into five years: investment period, payback period and extension period.
Based on this calculation, the investment cycle is mainly from 2014 to 2108, the payback period is mainly from 2019 to 2024, and the extension period is mainly from 2025 to 2029. This also means that it is the third year of the investment payback period of large funds.
In fact, in 2021, the reduction frequency of large funds in phase I was very high, with a total reduction of 14 listed companies, with a reduction amount of more than 8 billion yuan. Insiders told Chinese reporters of securities companies that since the establishment of the first phase of the national big fund, most of the semiconductor enterprises invested have achieved positive returns, and some listed companies have made huge profits.
Take Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) which is about to be reduced as an example, Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) is the first IC design enterprise to obtain the actual capital injection from the national large fund. The time point of taking shares is before its IPO, and the cost is very low. After Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) was listed, the stock price rose all the way. The cumulative increase of the latest closing price compared with its IPO issuing price was as high as 2020%. It is conceivable that the profits of large funds are rich.
Up to now, the large fund still holds Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) 2272 million shares, accounting for about 12.48% of the company's total share capital, corresponding to a total market value of 3.66 billion yuan.
Analysts believe that after the establishment of the second phase of the large fund, the orderly withdrawal of the first phase of the large fund is a normal operation, which is conducive to optimizing the investment structure. The large fund mainly focuses on financial investment and rarely participates in enterprise operation decisions. Therefore, the reduction of holdings will not have a significant impact on the actual operation of chip enterprises.
In fact, from July to November 2021, large funds also reduced their holdings of Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) 3.6 million shares, with a reduction ratio of 2%. The reduction did not have a negative impact on Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) share price, and the maximum increase of Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) during the period exceeded 115%.
When the first phase of the large fund was established, the fund-raising scale was 138.72 billion yuan, and the prying equipment fund exceeded 500 billion yuan. The investment scope includes the full coverage of manufacturing, design, sealing and testing, equipment, materials and ecological environment. It has invested in 77 projects and 55 integrated circuit enterprises, covering the upstream, middle and downstream links of the integrated circuit industry, A number of major strategic projects and key product areas have been laid out.
The second phase of 200 billion fund is accelerating the layout
With the completion of the investment and entering the payback period, phase II of the large fund will undertake the responsibilities of phase I and continue to invest in China's semiconductor industry to help the rise of domestic chips.
According to public information, the second phase of the big fund was registered and established on October 22, 2019, with a registered capital of 204.15 billion yuan. There are 27 shareholders, including the Ministry of finance, CDB finance, China tobacco and other state organs and departments, as well as national funds, as well as local government background funds, central enterprise funds, private enterprise funds, etc.
(source: China Securities Company)
