Today (January 11), the three major A-share indexes opened low across the board. After repeated shocks at the beginning of the session, the stock index differentiation was obvious. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index showed a pulse downward trend, while the Shanghai index once pulled up and turned red in the session, and then fell again due to insufficient upward attack. From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors fluctuated, the subject of the pharmaceutical industry chain led the two cities again, the power stocks “made a comeback”, the baby concept, logistics, real estate development and other sectors performed prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that there are obvious signs of institutional position adjustment after the festival. The fully adjusted undervalued traditional blue chips have won the favor of the market again since last year. It is suggested that investors should grasp them carefully. It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the GEM may be greater. Investors are advised to focus on investment opportunities in engineering construction, cement and building materials, household appliances, agriculture, medicine and other industries in the short term, and continue to focus on investment opportunities in undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] logistics
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that China’s covid-19 cases have increased significantly, and the recovery of air passenger transport demand has been negatively impacted. We believe that the growth logic and location advantages of first tier airport companies and airlines have not changed substantially due to the epidemic situation; With the continuous advancement of covid-19 vaccine / treatment technology, the demand for air passenger transport will gradually recover. The revaluation of first tier airport companies and airlines is a deterministic event; With the introduction of the management measures for express market (Revised Draft) (Exposure Draft), the industry supervision is expected to be further refined, the industry price war is expected to continue to ease, and the head express enterprises are expected to benefit.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that the recurrence of the epidemic in 2021-2022 is still the core factor leading the investment sentiment of the transportation segment. We tend to believe that the dispersion of the epidemic next year and the free flow of people, goods and goods are a gradual process. Therefore, the high-level operation of centralized transportation (especially in the first half of the year), the easing of express competition and integration will be high probability events, The airport is relatively subject to high interference factors, which is suitable for long-term layout; In the segment track, chemical hazardous logistics benefits from the increasing proportion of production and consumption in China and Asia year by year and the gradual liberalization of qualification approval for leading enterprises under the background of strong government supervision, and the improvement of concentration is expected to accelerate; Generally speaking, we recommend: Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Air China Limited(601111) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) .
Anxin Securities believes that the express delivery policy is released intensively again to determine the future growth expectation and high-quality development path of the industry, the short-term access system profit will be significantly repaired, the industry will gradually turn to service differentiated competition, and is optimistic about the inflection point and leading value of the industry. In addition, the comprehensive logistics Longtou Shunfeng ushers in the operation inflection point; China’s aviation demand continues to recover, and the international line is expected to improve marginally. At the same time, the supply certainty slows down. We are optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the aviation industry, the superposition of fare market-oriented reform, opening up flexible space, and the industry entering the growth cycle. []
[Topic 2] power
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that under the goals of “carbon peak” in 2030 and “carbon neutralization” in 2060, the energy field is the main battlefield of China’s carbon emission reduction, and the power grid is the hub to promote energy transformation and realize the national “double carbon” strategy. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the total investment in the power grid is expected to reach 3 trillion yuan, of which the State Grid plans to invest 350 billion US dollars (about 2.23 trillion yuan) to promote the transformation of the power grid; China Southern Power Grid will invest about 670 billion yuan to speed up the construction of digital power grid and modern power grid. At the same time, the proportion of intelligence in power grid investment has gradually increased. According to the general report of the intelligent planning of the State Grid, in the third stage, the State Grid continued to increase the scale of intelligent investment in transmission, transformation and distribution.
The agency further analyzed that the acceleration of power grid reform, the main beneficiary of power informatization reform, puts forward higher requirements for informatization, Internet and intelligence of the power industry. Therefore, some information management system service providers in the power industry will benefit from it. Ygsoft Inc(002063) has been in a leading position in the field of enterprise management software in the power industry for a long time. Its main products and services include group management, smart energy, smart IOT, blockchain, etc. It adopts the mode of software and hardware integration to provide customers with comprehensive industry solutions and services; State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) has upgraded cloud infrastructure, enterprise general digital application and power digital application, and actively gives play to its endowment advantages in the power field; Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) provide a large number of C-end users with online closed-loop service of “query, payment, bill and bill” for water and electricity heating. Through the improvement of card location, technology and operation capacity covered by the platform and business, the operation capacity of the company’s platform has become more and more mature; Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) it has professional power intelligent operation and maintenance analysis and management system products, which can integrate monitoring, management, analysis, early warning, alarm and linkage. It is suggested to focus on: Ygsoft Inc(002063) , state grid communication, Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) .
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, in order to accelerate the construction of a new power system suitable for the development of high proportion of renewable energy and ensure the stable, efficient and safe operation of the system, the importance of power auxiliary services has become increasingly prominent. At present, China’s auxiliary service market is still dominated by peak shaving, frequency modulation and standby. After the introduction of the new version of the “two rules”, the market-oriented reform of auxiliary services will be accelerated. It is estimated that the scale of China’s auxiliary service market will reach about 116.09 billion yuan in 2025. []
[Theme 3] real estate development
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that although the current situation of sales cooling, financing control and capital supervision is difficult to change in the short term, and the painful period of the industry will continue, the policy positive signal is obvious. After a certain period of transmission, the liquidity at both ends of supply and demand is expected to be marginally loose. Three main investment lines in the post crisis era deserve attention. Main line 1: industry reform after the painful period; Main line 2: more attention is paid to long-term business; Main line 3: revaluation of high-quality real estate enterprises.
At the current time point, large and medium-sized real estate enterprises with stable operation and healthy finance can not only seize the opportunity of land market to repair the income statement, but also obtain the recognition of financial institutions to ensure financing. They have significant comparative advantages and will fully benefit from the current downward cycle of the industry. In January, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) were recommended.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that in 2022, the industry policy will focus on “stability” and adhere to the main tone of “housing, housing and non speculation”. Under the guarantee of marginal easing of monetary policy and “guaranteed delivery of housing”, the overall industry sales will show a stable downward trend; The shortage of enterprise funds may be alleviated, the industry concentration will continue to increase, and the leading market share of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is expected to continue to rise; The valuation of leading enterprises will continue to be repaired, driving the recovery of industry valuation as a whole.
Ping An Securities believes that looking forward to 2022, the policy game space is still under the pressure of short-term fundamentals, and the plate valuation and low position enhance the safety margin. In the medium term, the industry bottoms out and stabilizes, the main investment line returns to fundamentals, the share of excellent enterprises increases and considerable development is worth looking forward to under the pattern reconstruction and model reform. It is recommended to select individual stocks throughout the year and allocate leading real estate enterprises with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , etc.
At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the potential “surviving” real estate enterprises that are expected to improve their financial situation and have valuation flexibility, such as Longguang group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) . Considering the increasing importance of diversified businesses in the stock era, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the property management and business management sectors with broad space and strengthened independent development, and be optimistic about the property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength, country garden services, poly property, xinchengyue services, Jinke services, rongchuang services, as well as the commercial operators with strong asset light output strength, Xingsheng commerce, etc.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that recently, the management has made intensive statements to guide the industry towards a more standardized stable and healthy development period in the medium and long term, short-term policy adjustments to alleviate pessimistic sales expectations, affordable rental housing to hedge the decline of potential development investment, and promote the industry to return to a virtuous circle and healthy development. The future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; The focus of the long-term M & A and debt recovery scenario is on the accurate mining of the balance sheet and profit margin of Housing enterprises. []
[Topic 4] traditional Chinese medicine
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that the state strongly supports the development of traditional Chinese medicine, inherits and innovates the development of traditional Chinese medicine, which is not only a major event for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, but also an inevitable requirement for building a health development model with Chinese characteristics in which traditional Chinese medicine and Western Medicine complement and develop in a coordinated manner; High quality and innovative development of drugs are the main theme in the next 5-15 years. In 14th Five-Year, the 12 full text of the plan referred to clinical value and clinical urgent need, 12 references to innovative drugs and 11 references to generic drugs. The SFA will further encourage and support the research and development of innovative drugs and generic drugs with clinical value.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) believes that we continue to be optimistic about the follow-up market of traditional Chinese medicine from three aspects: policy, fundamentals and valuation. From the policy side, the national medical insurance bureau and the administration of traditional Chinese Medicine issued the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, giving full play to the institutional advantages of medical insurance to support the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, and the immune attribute of medical insurance of traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods is prominent.
From a fundamental point of view, there are three opportunities: first, the price of upstream Chinese herbal medicines has increased, and the price of downstream products has increased one after another, such as Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) ; Second, the inventory clearance of downstream channels is coming to an end, and the inventory turnover is accelerated, which is expected to usher in the replenishment cycle; Third, the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises will release dividends, and equity incentives will be implemented one after another, greatly releasing the enthusiasm of employees, which is expected to be realized to the performance end in the future.
From the perspective of valuation, the traditional Chinese medicine sector has experienced many years of correction since 2015, with PE (TTM) of 34.2 times, which is equivalent to the overall valuation of medicine and is in the central position. Combined with the annual strategy, in January, we continued to be optimistic about traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, one of the main lines of “crossing medical insurance”, and suggested paying attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Tibet Cheezheng Tibetan Medicine Co.Ltd(002287) , Heilongjiang Zbd Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603567) .
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities also mentioned that national policies continue to support the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry. The traditional Chinese medicine industry is one of the key industries protected by the state. The relevant national policies actively encourage the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry and the traditional Chinese medicine decoction piece industry. The relevant regulatory departments of various provinces have also formulated relevant policy provisions to increase support for the traditional Chinese medicine industry and related enterprises. The continuous improvement of the industry supervision system and the support of industry regulations and policies are conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
In terms of investment suggestions, we are optimistic about innovative traditional Chinese medicine, brand traditional Chinese medicine with consumption attribute and scarcity attribute, and the transformation of high-quality and low-cost traditional Chinese medicine manufacturers. It is recommended that Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , the in vitro cultivation bezoar business of its affiliated subsidiary continues to rise in both volume and price under the background of shortage of natural bezoar, and the price of its OTC brand Longmu Zhuanggu granules has also been raised. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , etc. []
(source: China stock market news research center)
