With the release of New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) pig sales in December 2021, the annual sales of the four pig head breeding enterprises have been clear. 2021 is a key year for pig enterprises to expand production. Major pig breeding enterprises have maintained the momentum of expansion, and the pig breeding pattern has changed in this pig cycle.
In 2021, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) four pig breeding enterprises listed a total of 78.3852 million pigs, significantly higher than 45.514 million in 2020. According to the analysis of insiders, the gradual optimization of pig production capacity is obvious in this round of pig cycle, and the most intuitive embodiment is the obvious expansion pace of pig enterprises.
Marketing of head pig breeding enterprises
head enterprises account for nearly 15%
According to the production situation of the four leading enterprises in 2021, the concentration of pig industry is further improved. According to the total number of 527.04 million pigs sold in 2020, the proportion of the four leading enterprises in 2020 is about 8.6%, and the proportion of the top 10 major enterprises is about 10.4%; In 2021, the proportion of the four leading enterprises has increased to 14.9%.
From the performance of each enterprise's plant expansion, the absolute increment of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) is the highest in the whole industry, reaching 22.148 million, which is even higher than that of any other enterprise in the industry in 2021. At present, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) building 21 of Neixiang meat industry complex in Henan Province has been put into operation.
In terms of time, the large-scale production of pig enterprises was obvious last December. Previously, the industry estimated that according to the marketing situation from January to November, the annual marketing volume of the four pig enterprises in 2021 was about 75 million, while the actual figure was 78 million. The sales volume of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and other enterprises in December reached the second highest level in 2021.
Not only the four leading enterprises, but also the main pig breeding enterprises have shown signs of expansion. Recently, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) announced that the sales volume of commercial pigs in 2021 was 1.5423 million, a year-on-year increase of 50.56%. Last year Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) ranked fourth in 2020 sold 4.28 million commercial pigs, a year-on-year increase of 39.06%. Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) realized the "overtaking" of Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) . In 2021, 4307800 pigs were sold, a year-on-year increase of 132.8%.
Profit of pig breeding (source: Kaiyuan securities)
However, from the perspective of profitability, many enterprises have "increased the amount without increasing the price", that is, the scale of pig breeding has increased throughout the year, but the income of pig breeding has not increased significantly.
Taking Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) as an example, the company maintained a good momentum of production expansion in 2021, with a total of 1068900 pigs, a year-on-year increase of 33.01%; The cumulative sales revenue was 2.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.26%.
industry pattern changes quietly
The expansion of major pig breeding enterprises has brought about changes in the industry pattern. In 2021, the pace of capacity expansion of the leading enterprises is obvious, with the sales volume reaching "ten million", which is far from the "second echelon" such as Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) .
Haitong International believes that in 2021, although the pig price in China decreased significantly compared with that in 2020, the pig sales of listed companies continued the growth trend in recent years, indicating that the market share of pig breeding industry was further concentrated to the leading enterprises. At the same time, the growth rate of pig sales revenue showed obvious differentiation, among which the annual pig sales of Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) more than doubled year-on-year.
Two lows of pig prices in 2021 (source: China pig network)
Due to the obvious fluctuation of pig prices in 2021, especially the two low levels in June and October of that year, some small and medium-sized bulk farmers withdrew from the industry, and the main pig breeding enterprises ate this part of the market share. Industry insiders believe that the management and technology of head pig breeding enterprises are relatively mature, and the cost control ability is relatively high. The process of "one retreat and one advance" is actually the performance of high-efficiency production capacity and eliminating backward production capacity.
"From 2017 to 2021, the emerging pig breeding model has entered an outbreak period." Wei Xin, senior researcher of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) futures, analyzed that after 2010, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and other enterprises entered the exploration period. Due to long-term accumulation and exploration, these enterprises showed an obvious expansion trend in this round of pig cycle.
According to the analysis of The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities, the adjustment of pig price may continue to accelerate the deregulation of production capacity.
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(source: Shanghai Securities News)
