Since the new year, the A-share market has basically shown a pattern of “frequent rotation of leading sectors and continuous hammering of track assets”.
In early trading today, the previously unknown logistics sector suddenly broke out, and the share price of “three links and one Da” rose sharply. Some cyclical stocks also showed pulse market, and the trend of phosphorus chemical industry and steel sector was strong.
In contrast, the track assets represented by the “new semi army” (new energy, semiconductor and military industry) continue to withdraw, and the leading varieties such as Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) have decreased by more than 10% since the beginning of the year.
The above structural differentiation is also reflected in the index. As of midday closing, the gem index fell 0.66% again and has fallen 7.4% since the beginning of the year. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen composite index have fallen by 1.35% and 3.56% respectively.
the share price of “three links and one Da” soared
At the opening stage today, express stocks represented by “three links and one delivery” showed a strong momentum. Both Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) opened significantly higher than 6%, Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) opened higher than 5%, and Hong Kong stock Zhongtong express opened nearly 3%.
Entering the continuous bidding, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) share price quickly closed the limit, and other express stocks also showed high shocks. As of midday closing, Shenwan logistics industry as a whole rose 2.11%, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) limit, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) over 3%. Hong Kong stock Zhongtong express rose nearly 6%.
It is generally believed that the sudden outbreak of express stocks today is related to the performance forecast disclosed by Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) .
On January 10, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) disclosed the performance forecast. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2 billion to RMB 2.2 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 13.20% to 24.52%. Among them, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.046 billion yuan to 1.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 174.68% to 227.20%.
A number of securities companies followed up the Research Report and said that the performance of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) exceeded market expectations.
Anxin Securities believes that the performance of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) in the fourth quarter of 2021 exceeded the general expectation of the market. Through the calculation and split of single quarter performance, it can be found that the core reason for the high increase of single quarter performance lies in the rise of industry terminal price. Specifically, the company’s 2021q4 single ticket express profit increased significantly to 0.14 yuan, while the 2021q1-q3 single ticket express net profit was 0.1/0.04/0.04 yuan respectively.
Anxin securities stressed that with the continuous increase of regulatory policies in the express industry, the industry’s leading business strategy has undergone a qualitative change, and confirmed the inflection point of industry development. It is judged that the industry price in 2022 may fluctuate based on the peak season in 2021, but it is generally stable and the probability of price war is low. From a medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the demand growth of the express industry is highly uncertain.
According to the news of the State Post Office on January 7, in order to promote the healthy development of the express industry, ensure the quality and safety of express services, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of users and express practitioners, and strengthen the supervision and management of the express market, the State Post Office has studied and drafted the measures for the administration of the express market (Revised Draft) (hereinafter referred to as the “revised draft”) and solicited public opinions.
The revised draft makes it clear that enterprises engaged in express business shall not provide express services at a price lower than the cost without justified reasons. In addition, express enterprises shall not confirm the receipt of express without the consent of users, and shall not deliver express to intelligent express boxes, express service stations and other express end service facilities without authorization. Other terms have also been hotly discussed in the society.
In this regard, some institutions believe that policy upgrading will become the biggest variable to break the curling competition in the express industry. It is expected that the industry will continue the trend of fundamental repair in 2022.
track assets continue to be hammered
On the other side of the frequent rotation of the leading plate, the track assets represented by the “new half army” have continued to retreat since the beginning of the year.
In early trading today, Shenwan’s defense industry and electronic industry fell by 1.73% and 1.48% respectively, ranking the bottom among all primary industries. The semiconductor sector led the decline, Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300474) fell 7.54% in early trading, and Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) , Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) , Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) fell more than 3%.
On the news side, the investment dynamics of national large funds have attracted attention again. According to the announcement disclosed yesterday, the National IC industry fund plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 6024800 shares of the company, with a reduction ratio of no more than 2%; Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) according to the announcement on the same day, the national integrated circuit industry fund plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 3.64 million shares of the company, with a reduction ratio of no more than 2%.
For the recent continuous adjustment of track assets, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) strategy chief Zhang Qiyao recently expressed his view that combined with the congestion index and previous callback, the current adjustment of the hard technology sector represented by the “new half army” has been more sufficient.
Specifically, from the five congestion indicators of transaction proportion / transaction volume, turnover rate, the proportion of individual stocks on the 30 day moving average, financing buying sentiment and the number of research reports, the current congestion level of the new energy sector has dropped significantly, and the congestion indicators have been lower than the lower limit of the threshold or at a low level; The congestion of the semiconductor sector has also dropped significantly, and the transaction proportion, turnover rate and other congestion indicators have also approached the lower threshold; For the military industry sector, the transaction congestion has also dropped significantly compared with the previous period, and most indicators have also dropped to the upper and lower average.
Judging from the previous callback ranges and times of the “new half army” since 2019, the time of this round of new energy sector adjustment has exceeded the median and average level of previous adjustment days, and the callback range is basically close; The adjustment time and amplitude of semiconductor plate are slightly lower than the historical median and average; The number of days of this round of adjustment in the military industry sector is close to the historical level, and the callback range is relatively small.
To sum up, Zhang Qiyao said that at present, the transaction congestion of the “new half army” has fallen sharply, at a historically low position or near the average. On the premise of confirming the prosperity direction, the follow-up adjustment space may be limited and is entering the bottom consolidation stage.
(source: Shanghai Securities News)
