In 2022, the performance express of the first batch of listed banks was disclosed. Recently, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) took the lead in publishing the annual performance express of 2021. The data show that the net profits of the five banks increased significantly last year, exceeding market expectations.
In this context, the A-share banking sector has bucked the trend since the beginning of the year. As of January 11, the wind bank index has risen 4.63% in the first six trading days of 2022. Among them, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) led the rise. Since the beginning of the year, the share price has increased by 15.25%, 12.39% and 10.46% respectively.
On the future performance of bank stocks, many industry insiders interviewed by China first finance and economics reporters are optimistic. This is mainly because, on the one hand, the real estate financing environment has been relaxed, and the market has better expectations for economic growth this year; On the other hand, it is expected that the overall liquidity environment of the market will remain relatively loose and banks will increase credit. In addition, with reference to historical performance, bank stocks will have a good market at the end of each year and the beginning of the second year.
Performance forecast of 5 banks
Over the past year, with the recovery and growth of the economy, the performance of the banking sector has warmed up synchronously, and achieved better results in the first three quarters of 2021. Therefore, the market is more looking forward to the performance of banks in 2021. Recently, the announcement of the first batch of performance letters of listed banks has further released a positive signal to the market.
As of January 11, according to the reporter’s statistics, five banks have disclosed the performance express of 2021. Among the five banks, except Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , the net profit growth of other banks exceeded 20% last year, of which Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) exceeded 30%. In addition, from the perspective of trend, most banks show a good trend of “profit acceleration + non-performing decline + provision improvement”.
On January 11, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) successively disclosed the performance express of 2021, which was the fourth and fifth bank to publish the performance express this year, and their net profit growth exceeded 20%.
Specifically, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) announced that during the reporting period, the bank realized an operating revenue of 63.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.58%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 19.694 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.72%. Throughout the whole year of 2021, the growth rate of the bank’s performance in each period ranked among the top in the industry, and the growth rate of net profit ranked first in the first and third quarters.
At the same time, at the end of the reporting period, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) non-performing loan ratio was 1.08%, down 0.24 percentage points compared with the beginning of the period, and decreased year by year in the six years since listing; The provision coverage rate was 307.72%, an increase of 51.32 percentage points over the beginning of the period, and has increased year by year since it was listed for six years.
Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) announced that in 2021, the bank realized an operating revenue of 7.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.27%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of the bank was RMB 2.184 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.13%; By the end of the reporting period, the non-performing loan ratio was 0.81%, down 0.15 percentage points from the beginning of 2021; The provision coverage rate was 531.98%, an increase of 46.65 percentage points over the beginning of 2021.
Before Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , on January 10, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) have successively published the performance express of 2021, which are the first listed joint-stock bank and listed rural commercial bank to publish the performance express respectively.
Among them, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) in 2021, the operating revenue was 221.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 82.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. It is worth noting that this net profit growth reached a new high in the past eight years. From 2013 to 2020, the annual profit growth of the bank never exceeded 20%.
In terms of asset quality, by the end of last year, the bank’s non-performing loan balance was about 48.7 billion yuan, a drop of nearly 1 billion yuan over the beginning of the year, and rebounded from the end of the third quarter; The non-performing loan ratio was 1.10%, down 0.15 percentage points from the end of the previous year; The provision coverage rate was 268.73%, an increase of 49.90 percentage points over the end of the previous year.
According to the announcement of Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , the operating revenue in 2021 was 3.821 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.81%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 1.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.72%; By the end of the reporting period, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.00%, down 0.28 percentage points from the beginning of last year; The provision coverage rate was 411.10%, a significant increase of 105.79 percentage points over the beginning of last year.
Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) is the performance express published on January 5, the first bank to disclose the performance express this year. The bank expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will increase by 1.085 billion ~ 1.507 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 18% ~ 25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits will increase by RMB 1.090 billion ~ 1.512 billion year-on-year, with an increase of 18% ~ 25%.
Based on the bank performance of the published performance express, a securities analyst told reporters that the performance of the whole industry in 2021 is expected to show a good trend, rather than individual companies. Firstly, this is related to the overall increase of credit in the banking industry under the recovery of economic growth; Secondly, due to the adjustment of banking business structure, the contribution of medium income to bank revenue has increased significantly recently; Moreover, the disposal of non-performing assets of banks was carried out in an orderly manner, and the quality of industrial assets continued to improve.
There is also a view that with the further control of the epidemic, China’s macroeconomic operation is stable and good, and the growth rate of banking net profit will grow steadily in 2022. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) it is expected that the growth rate of Bank net profit will return to the track of steady growth after experiencing the fluctuation of the impact of the epidemic, and the growth rate is higher than the two-year compound growth rate from 2020 to 2021. In 2022 and 2023, the growth rate of Bank net profit may be 7.2% and 7.7%, mainly due to the steady increase of asset investment, the stabilization of net interest margin, the steady decrease of credit cost and the continued recovery of handling fee income.
catalyst plate Market
Affected by the “pre joy” of the performance of many banks, since the beginning of the year, the A-share banking sector has bucked the trend and recovered significantly. As of January 11, the wind bank index had risen to 7383.62 from 7055.27 at the opening of trading on the 4th, with an increase of 4.63% in the first six trading days of this year.
Among them, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) has the highest share price increase this year, with 15.25%, closing at 13.83 yuan / share as of the 11th; Followed by Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , up 12.39%, closing at 21.40 yuan / share as of the same day; In addition, it was Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , up 10.46%, closing at 6.44 yuan / share as of the same day. Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) followed, with increases of 10.39% and 9.04% respectively.
The market is not surprised by the recent good performance of bank stocks. Most practitioners expressed a positive attitude towards the performance of bank stocks in an interview with reporters at the end of 2021.
“This is mainly due to multiple factors,” the aforementioned brokerage analyst told reporters, “First, the central economic work conference strengthened the requirement of ‘steady growth\’, which will help to improve the pessimistic expectation of economic prosperity; second, the recent risk cases of real estate enterprises are advancing in an orderly manner, which will help to improve the pessimistic expectation of asset quality. Based on this, it is not difficult to understand the further improvement of the performance of the banking sector.”
Looking back on the whole year of 2021, the performance of bank stocks was greatly affected by the expectation of economic downturn and the crisis of individual real estate enterprises. First, the banking sector rose by more than 15% in the first quarter under the obvious economic recovery, and then the economic growth peaked in the second quarter. After the end of May, the sector significantly corrected. The fermentation of the liquidity crisis of some real estate enterprises greatly affected the middle and second half of the year, which made the bank (CITIC) index rise close to 0 in 2021.
However, at present, some analysts say that bank stocks have entered the configuration time window. China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Liao Zhiming, chief banking analyst, told reporters that the real estate financing environment has been relaxed and the market has better expectations for economic growth this year. At the same time, with reference to historical performance, bank stocks will have a good market at the end of each year and the beginning of the second year. For the whole year of 2022, the growth of the banking sector is expected to be comparable to that of 2019 (about 20%, equivalent to two-year roe of the banking sector).
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) Wang Yifeng, chief banking analyst, also believes that he is moderately optimistic about the performance of bank stocks in the first quarter. It is expected that under the condition that the current insufficient effective credit demand has not significantly improved, the overall liquidity environment of the market will remain loose and “wide credit” can be expected; The risk of real estate enterprises or phased mitigation has also eased the asset quality risk that suppresses the performance of bank stocks; Historically, the trend of the banking sector was better in the first quarter, and the relative earnings of bank stocks in January may be better.
(source: First Finance)
