The US stock technology giant with “thick eyebrows and big eyes” suddenly burst into thunder.
Naifei’s latest financial report has greatly stunned Wall Street institutions. According to the financial report, in the first quarter of this year, Netflix’s global net paying users decreased by 200000, while Wall Street institutions are expected to add 2.73 million, significantly lower than expected. After the opening of U.S. stocks, Naifei suffered a fierce sell-off in the market, and its share price opened sharply lower by 28.6%. At one time, it plummeted by more than 36% and its total market value fell to $99 billion (about 634.4 billion yuan). On the previous trading day, its total market value was as high as $154.8 billion (about 993 billion yuan).
about the reason for the decrease of 200000 paying users, Naifei explained that it was mainly related to the suspension of services in Russia and the deletion of all paying members in Russia. This emergency led to the decrease of 700000 paying net users in the quarter
In addition, the global bond market is not calm, and the selling tide is rising again. On April 20, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond once hit 2.94%, approaching 3%; German 10-year bond yield rose to 0.86%; The yield on the UK 10-year note rose to 1.92%. For the follow-up development of the market, Goldman Sachs traders predicted pessimistically: “the best days are over and the current situation is unprecedented”.
Naifei thunderstorm
The punishment of US stocks for “performance Thunderstorm” is particularly severe.
This time, the thunder of the financial report is Naifei, an American streaming media giant. After the US stock market closed on April 19, Netflix released the financial report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2022. In the first quarter of this year, Netflix’s global net subscribers decreased by 200000, the first time in 11 years that net subscribers decreased instead of increased. Before the financial disclosure, the company is expected to add 2.5 million, and Wall Street institutions are optimistic that it will add 2.73 million, which greatly stunned the market.
on April 20, Beijing time, after the opening of U.S. stocks, Naifei suffered a fierce sell-off in the market, and its share price opened sharply lower by 28.6%. As of press time, the decline was 36% to $223 / share, and the total market value fell to $99 billion (about 634.4 billion yuan), with an evaporation of more than $55.8 billion (about 357.6 billion yuan) compared with the previous trading day
As early as January this year, the 2021 fourth quarter report disclosed by Naifei was also a big thunder, and the share price fell 21.8% that day. Since 2022, Naifei’s share price has fallen by more than 61% and its total market value has evaporated to US $164 billion (about 1052.2 billion yuan).
Affected by the thunder of Naifei’s financial report, the US stock market is also very cautious about other streaming media concept stocks. On the same day, roku, spotify, Disney and other streaming media stocks fell 3%, 6% and 4.4% respectively. In addition, Amazon, “meta universe” meta and other Internet technology stocks fell.
Naifei’s latest financial report shows that the total revenue in the first quarter of this year was US $7.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, which was also lower than the US $7.9 billion expected by the company and lower than the US $7.93 billion expected by the market. Diluted EPS was $3.53, down nearly 6% from $3.75 in the same period last year, but higher than analysts’ expectation of $2.89
in addition, the guidance given by Naifei in the second quarter of this year was also lower than expected it is estimated that in the second quarter, the global net payment households dropped by 2 million, or decreased for two consecutive quarters. There was an increase of 1.5 million in the same period in 2021, and the market originally expected a net increase of 2.4 million in the second quarter; EPS is expected to be $3 in the second quarter, lower than the $3.02 expected by analysts; The second quarter revenue is expected to be $8.05 billion, which is also lower than the $8.23 billion expected by analysts.
Bloomberg commented that from the data of net new users, Naifei may usher in the worst year in the history of listing.
For this poor report card, Naifei’s management attributed it to the epidemic, inflation, intensified competition and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
When explaining that “the global net paying users decreased by 200000”, Naifei said that it was mainly related to the suspension of services in Russia and the deletion of all paying members in Russia. This emergency reduced the number of paid net users by 700000 in the quarter. If this impact was not taken into account, the global paid net users would have increased by 500000.
In addition, the quarterly net users in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) decreased by 300000. Excluding the impact of Russia, it should increase by 400000. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine also slowed down the business in central and Eastern Europe in March.
Naifei is the first large-scale technology stock in the United States to release the first quarter earnings report. The market is worried that other Internet technology stocks may follow suit and suffer from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a thunderstorm of performance.
bond market selling tide
On April 20, the selling tide of US Treasury bonds continued, driving the yield to continue to rise collectively. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds once exceeded 2.90% and approached 3%, breaking the high level since December 2018 for three consecutive trading days. The yield of 30-year US bonds rose to more than 3% for the first time since 2019.
Wall Street traders are betting that the Fed will accelerate the pace of tightening and raising interest rates and continue to sell US Treasury bonds. Strategic analysts at JPMorgan Chase and MUFG securities America predict that the yield of 10-year US bonds may climb to more than 3%.
The data show that the inflation adjusted bond yield of the United States is about to turn positive, which will be the first time since March 2020, which will bring further pressure to areas with high risk in the financial market.
In addition, the European bond market is also experiencing a wave of selling. On April 20, the yield of German 10-year Treasury bond once rose to 0.86%; The yield on the UK 10-year note rose to 1.92% at one point.
more and more investors are worried that the turmoil in the global bond market may spread to the stock market, and the pessimism of investors is increasing. According to the latest report of Goldman Sachs, the bullish sentiment of AAII retail investors is at the lowest level in 30 years, and the bullish layout of hedge funds is also the lowest since April 2020
For the follow-up development of the market, Tony pasquariello, head of hedge fund sales at Goldman Sachs, predicted pessimistically: “the best days are over and the current situation is unprecedented”.
and a bigger storm in the future may come from the Federal Reserve
Goldman Sachs warned that the central bank led by the Federal Reserve may be more hawkish. Once the policy is tightened aggressively, it is bound to lead to an economic slowdown. However, it is still difficult for most people to foresee a recession in the US economy, which may mask the sensitivity of discovering risks.
at present, there are market expectations that the Federal Reserve may introduce a combination of “50 basis points of interest rate increase + table contraction” at its May meeting
On April 18, Brad, the “Hawk king” of the Federal Reserve, warned that the Federal Reserve needs to act quickly to raise the benchmark interest rate to about 3.5% by the end of the year; During the period, interest rates need to be raised by 50 basis points for many times, and the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points should not be ruled out. The accelerated contraction may also become “plan B”.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) also said that the Federal Reserve is expected to be more aggressive in this round of tightening cycle. It is expected to shrink the table in May. The fast-paced contraction of the table will promote the rapid rise of the real interest rate. It is expected that the real interest rate may change from negative to positive within the year.
United States suddenly caught a snowstorm
Sudden abnormal climate is also one of the risks worried by the market.
On April 19 local time, the northeast of the United States was experiencing a rare heavy snow weather, accompanied by strong winds and more than 30 cm of snow. The thickness of snow in some areas reached 38 cm.
So far, the storm has not caused casualties, but led to a large area of power failure in the eastern United States. According to poweroutage According to the data of US website, at about 10 a.m. Eastern time, 307305 users in New York, Pennsylvania, Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire lost power.
among them, New York State has the largest number of power outage users, with more than 200000 at one time. Local officials said it may take several days to fully restore power supply. Affected by power outages and other factors, travel bans have been issued in some areas
The previous large-scale snowstorm in the United States hit Texas in February 2021, causing a large number of power plants to trip. It once triggered a power crisis, affecting about 80 million people and entering a state of emergency in many places. Finally, it killed about 70 people and caused economic losses of at least 20 billion US dollars.
Meanwhile, Canada’s southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba are also suffering from snowstorms. Among them, Saskatchewan is the largest agricultural province in Canada, with 43% of Canada’s cultivated land.
Canada is the world’s largest rapeseed grower and a major wheat exporter, but has recently been disturbed by climate. Last year, Canada’s crops have been greatly reduced due to drought. This round of snowstorm will bring a new risk of delaying the sowing date.
At present, the United States and its European countries are facing the risk of soaring inflation. Once food prices continue to rise, it will undoubtedly further raise the inflation level of all countries.
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