"From March 19 to April 18, the price of chicken seedlings rose to 3.32 yuan / feather, an increase of 77%. This price became the highest point in the year." Referring to the chicken seedlings whose prices have increased frequently recently, Liu Xiaoying, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, told the reporter of Securities Daily.
Some investors believe that this is a signal that a new round of "chicken cycle" is about to begin. However, some incubators say that the current price rise is only a short-term recovery.
the price of chicken seedlings soared under multiple factors
For the current rise in the price of chicken seedlings, Zheng maiqing, an associate researcher of the Institute of animal husbandry of the Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the reporter of Securities Daily that the reasons for the rise are complex, including supply factors and cost factors.
\u3000\u3000 "In terms of production capacity, the production capacity of chicken seedlings is at a low level in the past two years. The production of parent generation breeding chickens has been losing money for six months, and the loss has been aggravated in the middle of March this year. Due to the short production cycle of broiler breeding, the production enterprises will take production capacity adjustment measures more frequently and timely. The reduction of output and the recent rise in the price of feather chicken have led to the rise in the price of chicken seedlings; in addition, the rise in feed prices has increased the production cost of chicken seedlings In addition, due to repeated outbreaks in some areas this year, the transportation and logistics are limited. In the recent research, it is found that it is difficult to transport chicken seedlings abroad. While the cost increases, the available vehicles are significantly reduced. Under the comprehensive factors, the price of chicken seedlings rises. However, the current industry has entered a "grinding period". Zheng maiqing told the reporter of Securities Daily.
Zheng maiqing observed that judging from the production cycle of broilers, the second quarter of this year may become a turning point in the industry, "The price rise in April and may may may be a rebound in the short term. It is highly likely that the industry will really come out of the bottom by the third quarter at the latest. From the perspective of the whole industrial chain, the production capacity potential of all links from parent generation chicken breeding to chicken seedling breeding, broiler breeding and slaughtering is sufficient; from the overall situation of broiler breeding industry, only the slaughtering link made a profit in the first quarter of this year, while the production links of parent generation and commodity generation lost a lot The main reason for the loss is that profits are squeezed, feed prices rise and meat prices do not rise, which is equivalent to the rise of the floor and the decline of the ceiling, which has hit the confidence of the industry. Therefore, practitioners continue to adjust the breeding plan, so as to reduce the production capacity of the industry to a low level in recent two years. "
relevant listed companies did not benefit from the first quarter performance
Although the price of chicken seedlings continued to rise in the middle and late March, it is difficult for listed companies with related businesses to really benefit in the first quarter.
The announcement of listed companies that have released the relevant performance status in the first quarter and the operation data in the first three months shows that due to the poor market of white feather broilers in the reporting period, the sales price of commercial substitute chicken seedlings is low, with a significant decrease year-on-year; Moreover, during the reporting period, the price of feed raw materials such as soybean meal increased greatly, the cost of chicken seedlings and chicken increased, and the company's business suffered losses.
Some practitioners also told the reporter of Securities Daily that it will take time for the current price rise to be transmitted to the company's performance, but the continuous rise in prices will benefit the industry and enterprises in the future.
Zhuo Chuang information also believes that from the end of April to may, driven by the continuous upward price of wool chicken, the price of chicken seedlings may still have the power to move up. "On the supply side, the price of chicken seedlings has been rising strongly recently, and the emergence of incubated enterprises has increased slightly in mid April, but the stock of breeding chickens in the producing parents has declined, and the short-term supply of chicken seedlings is expected to increase little; on the demand side, the supply of raw chicken is small, the demand of slaughtering enterprises is stable, the chicken price has stopped rising and stabilized, and the supply of raw chicken may be further reduced from the end of April to May. At that time, the chicken price may still rise to support the chicken seedling market." Liu Xiaoying introduced to the reporter of Securities Daily.
