Bairuiying: will it be a change after extreme shrinkage?

[pre disk interpretation]

As soon as the Hong Kong stock market opened, I punched big brother A-share. Although Hong Kong stocks accounted for some of the reasons for the weakness of A-Shares on Tuesday, in the final analysis, it is its own failure. The continuous decline has weakened it for a long time and requires a more cohesive and guiding torque.

On the disk, coal, oil, natural gas and agriculture led the increase; Semiconductors, components, medicine, etc. led the decline. From the rise and fall list, it is almost a reverse rotation, indicating that the current market is not ready for style switching, which is why we have repeatedly warned not to blindly follow the trend. The current focus is mainly on risk avoidance. Under the Russian Ukrainian war, food and energy have become the focus of global concern. Combined with the epidemic situation in China, we believe that consumption and resources will be favored by the market in the short term. Among them, people's livelihood is the main consumption, followed by finance; Resources focus on oil and gas and other related derivative sectors.

Technically, the stock index bottoming and topping and the long and short boundary indicators further continued the early empty state. Although the 6th line was tilted, it operated above the K line and had a certain pressure in the short term. The weak adjustment trend of gem remains unchanged, and there is no obvious sign of stabilization or idling. Overall, the position is less than 50%, both offensive and defensive are ready, and advance and retreat are appropriate.

Strategically, the current market not only has poor hot spot continuity, but also has shrinking capacity. Considering that there is little room for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates after May, and the internal interest rate increase is extremely uncertain, even though the internal interest rate increase is limited. According to the steady strategy of not eating fish head and fish tail and only eating fish body, we should not rush to catch up first, maintain the original operation rhythm and wait patiently for the real reversal signal to be clear.

[message side]

Tesla Shanghai Super factory promoted more than 100 parts manufacturers to resume production.

Tesla Shanghai Super factory resumed work on the 19th. At present, about 8000 employees have arrived. Tesla is actively promoting the resumption of work and production of more than 100 parts manufacturers and smooth logistics with the help of relevant national departments, Shanghai Municipal Commission of economy and information technology and other departments. Some provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta also actively support the resumption of work and production of enterprises. For example, Taizhou City, Jiangsu province supports helping Tesla's local supply chain enterprises resume work and production and apply for transportation passes.

[short term hot spot]

On the 19th, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of ecological environment, the National Bureau of statistics and other departments conducted research and deployment on the reduction of crude steel production in 2022, focusing on reducing crude steel production in key areas of air pollution prevention and control such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta and Fenwei plain, and reducing crude steel production with poor environmental protection performance, high energy consumption and relatively backward process and equipment level, Ensure the year-on-year decline of national crude steel output in 2022.

According to carbon black industry network, recently, a number of overseas media reported that the supply of carbon black in Europe was seriously affected due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. From the current situation, Ukraine's carbon black supply and transportation roads have been damaged due to the war, and carbon black exports from Russia and Belarus have been blocked due to economic sanctions. The supply of carbon black in these three countries is now almost completely cut off. This is extremely fatal to the supply of carbon black in Europe. According to relevant sources, due to the shortage of carbon black in the European market, Michelin, the world's largest tire manufacturer, has recently been reducing the production capacity of its saulay tire manufacturing plant in France.

[European and American stock markets]

As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 1.45% to 3491120; The NASDAQ index rose 2.15% to 1361966; The S & P 500 index rose 1.61% to 446221.

On Tuesday, European time, the main indexes of European stocks fell collectively. As of the close, the UK FTSE 100 index closed at 760128 points, down 15.10 points or 0.20% from the previous trading day; The French CAC40 index closed at 653479 points on the 19th daily, down 54.56 points or 0.83% from the previous trading day; Germany DAX30 index closed at 1415346, down 10.39 points or 0.07% from the previous trading day.

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