I. possible deviation of market view
The financial sentiment is low, and the track direction adjustment drives the market to continue to take measures. The second dip is in the final stage. At present, as the epidemic control policy begins to be revised, the decline of the market is expected to be a bargain hunting opportunity.
ii. Market sentiment monitoring
Good track decision express Sentiment Index currently reads 35, in the shock zone. Combined with the analysis that the sentiment index has rebounded from the low on April 11 and the recent stock index is dominated by range shocks, this means that the current market sentiment has improved slightly compared with the previous period. From the perspective of behavioral analysis, when the market caution gradually eases, it means that the phased weakness of the stock index is expected to be improved. When the sentiment index is in the shock zone, investors are advised to wait patiently for the market direction [refer to the instructions for the use of sentiment index] (updated on April 20, 2022).
III. deviation analysis
Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) is close to the opening limit, driving the whole new energy direction to fluctuate and fall all day. When the private placement position of China Resources trust stock has dropped to about 58%, combined with the new energy direction represented by electrical equipment, it is in the operation rhythm of contraction adjustment recently, and it is obvious that the willingness to undertake funds is poor. Therefore, we believe that institutional positions have been fully sold, and the adjustment of the market is more based on the release of confidence and emotion. The corresponding is still near the end of the second bottom.
Institutional positions are low, which means that the stock has the ability to do more. But as the saying goes, confidence is more important than gold. Recently, even the stable signals released by the central bank, the CSRC, the leaders of the State Council and the meeting of the central Deep Reform Commission have failed to completely reverse the current market investor confidence. It is obvious that they are mainly impacted by the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts, epidemic prevention and control and other factors on the economy. Therefore, in our view, what is more important at present is the breakthrough of negative repression factors or policy adjustment, rather than just policy hedging such as stabilizing economic growth (it may be that investors have doubts about the pragmatism and feasibility of stabilizing growth policies under the current epidemic environment).
On the whole, our view is that the market should bottom out from the perspective of institutional positions and sector adjustment range. However, from the perspective of emotion and confidence, there is no clear signal of reversal. Therefore, the short term is still at the end of the second dip. The panic adjustment at the end will be the game time window of strong oversold rebound, which is what we think investors should pay attention to at present.
