Affected by the fact that China's LPR remained unchanged and US bond interest rates continued to rise, major stock indexes fell sharply today. As of the closing of the 20th, the gem index fell 3.66%, below the 2400 mark, mainly due to the decline of heavyweights; Shenzhen composite index fell 2.07%; The CSI 300 index fell 1.55%.
[analysis of decline reasons]
On April 20, 2022, the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market is: 1-year LPR is 3.7%, and more than 5-year LPR is 4.6%. The LPR quotation has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, and the market expectation of interest rate reduction has failed again.
After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement slightly last Friday, it highlighted the more restrained easing position of the central bank at present, and the space for further easing of monetary policy will be narrowed in the future. However, we believe that under the background that the epidemic situation in China is significantly higher than expected and has a certain impact on economic growth, it is expected that the easing trend of structured monetary policy will not turn, but the follow-up space may be limited.
On Tuesday, the yield of US Treasury bonds continued to rise, and the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds exceeded 2.9%, a new high since December 2018. The dollar continued to return significantly.
At the same time, the pressure of the Fed's interest rate increase on the growth of other stocks in the world may accelerate the pressure on the valuation level of the US economy. At the same time, it may bring negative pressure on the growth of other stocks in the world.
[future outlook of China EU wealth investment advisers]
Under the aggravation of the economic pressure caused by the mood and the epidemic, the core growth stocks of A-Shares weakened one after another. The pressure on the economy is further increased with the spread of the epidemic in China, and the market expectations for various stimulus policies are also rising. As the use of monetary policy tools is now relatively restrained, if the subsequent adjustment of epidemic prevention policy is expected to be implemented in place, it will have a good stimulating effect on a shares.
From historical experience, the emotional venting of A-Shares often brings better buying opportunities. However, the digestion of emotions often takes a certain time, and there is still the possibility of repeated shocks in the follow-up market. However, from the perspective of medium and long-term allocation, A-Shares have good investment opportunities. For risk averse investors, undervalued varieties often provide better defense in the process of previous market adjustment.
In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the beneficial stimulus policies and the financial and real estate industries with advantages such as valuation and dividend yield. Continue to recommend new infrastructure areas with high growth and high certainty in the medium term, especially energy infrastructure, green power and digital infrastructure. Based on the judgment that it often takes a long time to stabilize the market oscillation, the configurable window period of the above industries is still long, so there is no need to rush to "rebound".
In addition, with the stabilization of the economy and the successive implementation of industrial policies, it is suggested that we can gradually start to pay more attention to the main line of oversold growth in the middle and later part of the second quarter.
The fund is risky and investment needs to be cautious. The above contents are for reference only, do not predict future performance, and are not used as any investment suggestions. The views and predictions only represent the views at that time and may change in the future. Please do not quote or reprint without permission.
