How cool it is when rising, how painful it is when adjusting. These days, A-Shares can be said to “kill” a white horse share every day.
The day before yesterday, it was China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , a trillion market value white horse stock. Yesterday, it was Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , and today it is Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) .
This reminds DAGO of the rhythm of “killing” a white horse in a day at almost the same time last year. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) etc. were all rubbed on the ground. In this case, DAGO can only say that “the flowers are similar year by year, and the people are different year by year”.
As a matter of fact, today DAGO didn’t expect the organization to be so ruthless. Although the Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) performance is indeed lower than expected, the rising cost of the supply chain affects the profit, which should be within the expectation of the organization, because this is what the organization research does.
Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) directly fell to the 20cm limit, stunned many investors, followed by the heavyweight stocks on the gem, which were dragged out “beaten” regardless of their performance.
There are many rumors about individual stocks. Anyway, A-Shares are like this. When they fall much, the “ghost story” comes Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell below the threshold of trillion market value. In February, some securities companies planned to hold a teleconference to be bearish on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and finally cancelled it under pressure from all parties. It is said that there was 20% room for decline from a quantitative point of view at that time. Now it seems to be sharp.
DAGO searched the date of the proposed conference call – February 11. From this day to today’s closing, the decline of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is 16.94%, which is 3 percentage points less than the prediction of the above-mentioned securities companies. Considering the proportion of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the gem index, and from the K-line chart, both are approaching the early intensive trading area, and it is not far from stopping the decline.
Of course, these are only for reference, and advance judgment can be made, but they should not be used as the basis for trading, but should be analyzed in detail according to the specific situation. Nor is it necessary to deny new energy, which is obviously a big mistake. Before, new energy vehicles made money mainly from middle and upstream resources and batteries. After this round of reshuffle, will it be transmitted to downstream vehicle manufacturers? We can observe.
Some people ask that white horse stocks such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) are very good. Why did they kill a lot?
The answer is very simple. It’s because it’s very good that we have an offer and can sell it. Since this year, the market style is not very friendly to institutional heavy positions, and institutions can not raise much funds. Coupled with the redemption pressure of Jimin, a negative feedback loop has been formed, which continues to suppress institutional heavy positions.
What’s more, the valuation of some stocks in the boom track is high. The dynamic P / E ratio of Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) is 65 times. How much valuation can the market give to a company with declining performance? That can only rely on faith, and what the weak market lacks most is faith.
In addition to the decline of track stocks, there are also large blue chips, real estate stocks and coal stocks joining the short camp today. These blue chips suffered a sharp setback. DAGO believes that the main reasons are as follows:
First, these sectors have a relatively large increase in the near future, and there is an expectation of covering the decline.
Second, the prices of LPR announced today remain unchanged compared with the previous period, that is, the market expectation of interest rate reduction has failed, which is bad for real estate stocks and resource stocks. However, considering the pressure brought by the interest rate difference between China and the United States, it is easy to understand that the LPR quotation remains unchanged, and it is more adjusted by taking advantage of the news. The central bank made it very clear in answering reporters’ questions on time last time. The future expectation mainly depends on the strength of fiscal policy.
Third, CNOOC will be listed tomorrow. Generally, when large cap stocks are listed, the performance of blue chips will inevitably be restrained, because some funds have to withdraw from early-stage blue chips and build new blue chips. Regardless of the previous listing of China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) or China Mobile and other large cap stocks, blue chips fall. However, fortunately, after the listing of new blue chip stocks, the market can be relaxed, and the pressure is not so great.
The strong sector on the disk is dominated by consumer stocks. The direction of agriculture was made clear in March. Today’s performance is in line with expectations. It should be noted that after a year and a half of shocks, the planting / forestry sector has now come to the top high. Whether it can break through May be crucial in the next few days.
Another new direction is the traditional direction of food consumption. Now is the stage of recovery + recovery. The negative effects brought by the epidemic and the rise in the price of upstream raw materials are exhausted. With the gradual return of production and life to normal, people’s consumption demand has been suppressed for a long time, and there is a demand for small-scale outbreak. Therefore, social consumption is gradually recovering under this background.
Mapped to the stock market, after a year and a half decline in the food processing sector last year, some consumer companies will experience repeated shocks and bottoming when they enter the bottoming market. For the time being, we can be optimistic. Many consumer companies may come out of the bottom of the big cycle. The performance of consumer companies is expected to rise next year, or next year.
Technically speaking, the food processing sector has broken through the pressure position corresponding to the Shanghai stock index on March 14. Now it is near the dense trading area where the sector index traded horizontally in February. It is consistent with the previous operation method. It can wait for the callback confirmation opportunity after breaking through this dense trading area.
It’s hard for everyone to feel frustrated in the market, but it’s better to have a big fluctuation than no fluctuation. The three major A-share indexes have multiple k-lines together in a row, winding around, making people unable to see the direction. Now they fall down, but they are much clearer.
The gem is very close to the short-term bottom. For the oversold sector, DAGO’s view has not changed. It’s time to pay attention. It is necessary to pay attention to the time node of the quarterly report or annual report. Investors who are not sure can wait until the financial report is finished.
However, the Shanghai stock index is still difficult to see the direction for the time being. DAGO combines the real estate, coal, securities and other sectors that have fallen sharply today. The real estate and coal sectors are about to fall to the support level, and the securities sector may not fall immediately. The Shanghai Stock Index may have to grind.
Although we all expect that the bottom of the Shanghai stock index market is likely to hit a new low, we can’t completely give up another possibility of bottom. Take advantage of this time to learn the bottom of the market in September 2015 and be prepared. That’s all for today. DAGO is boiling with his friends.
