Indemnificatory rental housing is the only way to improve the housing security system. Indemnificatory rental housing is the only way to improve the housing security system, which can effectively alleviate the pressure on Shenzhen New Land Tool Planning &Architectural Design Co.Ltd(300778) population caused by the net inflow of population, high house prices and high rents, effectively reduce their living burden, and make an important supplement to the construction of a mature long-term mechanism of real estate.
Affordable rental housing is included in affordable housing. We expect to raise about 8.57 million affordable rental housing units during the 14th Five Year Plan period, focusing on the four metropolitan areas. We predict that about 8.57 million sets of affordable rental housing will be raised during the 14th Five Year Plan period, mainly distributed in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei economic circle, the Yangtze River Delta economic circle, the Great Bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao and the central economic circle. It is expected that the investment in affordable rental housing will be 359.5 billion yuan in 2022, accounting for about 2.4% of the national real estate development investment in 2021.
The government has given strong support in terms of land and funds. The sources of indemnificatory rental housing include new construction and reconstruction. New construction is divided into new collective construction land, new enterprises and institutions, new industrial parks and new state-owned construction land. The construction funds will be raised by the investors themselves and supported by the government in all aspects. The sources of funds mainly include: enterprise own funds, credit, bonds, special bonds, land support, fiscal expenditure, tax preference, REITs and other financing instruments.
Welcome the development of rental housing related industries. 1) Developers of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises are expected to assume more responsibilities. Real estate development enterprises with state-owned assets background, key layout of first and second tier cities, strong capital and light debt pressure have a greater probability to bear the heavy burden of affordable rental housing construction. 2) Geographical advantages are more prominent. The building materials enterprises with the highest overlap between the main business area and the construction area of indemnificatory rental housing are expected to further benefit. 3) High cost performance and high matching degree of fine decoration building materials. High quality and cost-effective building materials are in line with the positioning of affordable rental housing, which is expected to usher in more opportunities in the development of affordable rental housing. 4) Be the vanguard of green buildings. Affordable rental housing is an important starting point for governments at all levels to respond to the national “double carbon” goal. It is expected to accelerate the upgrading of green industries in three aspects: technical services, use of building materials and construction methods.
Affordable rental housing is an important carrier of prefabricated buildings. We predict that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the annual growth rate of newly started prefabricated building area will remain between 13% – 16%. It is estimated that the newly started prefabricated building area will be 820 million square meters in 2022, and the prefabricated building area contributed by indemnificatory rental housing will be 86.4 million square meters, accounting for 10.5% of the prefabricated building area in that year, contributing 48.3% of the increment of prefabricated building in 2022, which will significantly stimulate the prefabricated building industry.
Risk tip: the epidemic affected the construction of affordable rental housing less than expected, and the price rise of bulk raw materials affected the construction less than expected.
