Since the beginning of the year, it has increased by nearly 60% year-on-year and more than 20% in April - since this spring, driven by the ignition and commencement of several downstream photovoltaic glass production lines, the soda ash market has continued to be "hot".
Since 2022, the price of soda ash in China has increased significantly.
Recently, the reporter learned in the interview that at present, the production and sales rate of many leading soda ash enterprises has reached or exceeded 100%, the enterprises have no inventory, and the overall inventory of the industry is low.
In the latest research report, many institutions also believe that benefiting from the rapid release of photovoltaic glass production capacity and the recovery of the real estate industry, the supply and demand pattern of soda ash may continue to be tight during the year, the soda ash industry is expected to enter the upward cycle of prosperity again, the price continues to strengthen, and the leading enterprises of soda ash are expected to continue the good performance since the first quarter.
downstream photovoltaic glass new capacity drives demand
Why has soda ash repeatedly become a popular chemical in the past two years? We should also look at its downstream applications in the industrial chain.
Main downstream applications of soda ash industry chain
Nearly 80% of soda ash is used in various glass production, and about 0.2 tons of soda ash is consumed per ton of glass.
Soda ash is indispensable for traditional float glass, and the demand for soda ash for photovoltaic glass is also growing rapidly. In addition, high-end soda ash products can also be applied to lithium battery industries such as lithium carbonate. It takes about 2 tons of soda ash to produce 1 ton of lithium carbonate.
Driven by the strong demand in the downstream of the industrial chain, the market of soda ash rebounded strongly again this year.
According to the data of China Chlor Alkali network, in the first quarter of this year, the average price of heavy alkali in China was 2540 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 60.9%, and the average price of light alkali was 2377 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 55.54%.
According to the reporter, on the demand side, some glass enterprises in Shahe, Hebei, the main production base of float glass in China, which previously affected production due to the closure and control of the epidemic, are gradually returning to work and production. The inventory of raw materials is low and there is a demand for replenishment. In the downstream of the industrial chain, the recent recovery signal of the real estate industry is obvious, and the demand for float glass tends to increase during the year.
Since March this year, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass has shown a rapid growth trend
According to institutional monitoring, since March and April this year, the ignition of China's photovoltaic glass production line has increased rapidly. It is estimated that this year's large photovoltaic glass production enterprises are expected to contribute about 30000 tons of daily melting photovoltaic glass production capacity increment, which will greatly stimulate the market demand for soda ash.
On the supply side, there was no new capacity of soda ash in China in the first half of this year. In addition, due to the withdrawal of 1.3 million T / a soda ash production capacity of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) alkali industry at the end of 2021, the total market supply is reduced, which is conducive to the maintenance of high prosperity of the industry.
soda ash enterprise good performance or continuous
At present, listed companies in China's soda ash leaders include Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) and Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) . With the support of the boom cycle, the current production and sales rate of enterprises is basically 100%.
On April 18, Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) said on the investor interaction platform that the soda ash market was in a boom cycle. It is reported that at present, the company has a soda ash production capacity of 3.4 million tons / year and an equity production capacity of 2.86 million tons / year. While meeting the Chinese market, the company's products are exported to South America, South Korea, Australia and other countries and regions.
Recently, Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) said in the investor interaction that at present, the company's soda ash production and sales rate is about 100%.
"In the first quarter of 2022, there was a strong demand for soda ash. Although the price of raw salt, the main raw material, increased significantly year-on-year, the product price of the company increased accordingly, and the profit margin remained stable." Recently, Yang Yuhua, board secretary of Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) said at the 2021 performance presentation meeting. It is reported that the company's soda ash production and sales rate exceeded 100% in the first quarter. Benefiting from the rising volume and price of soda ash, Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) company achieved a revenue of 5.85 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 60%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 600 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year.
Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603077) said that the company's soda ash products have been certified by relevant downstream enterprises and have been sold. The company will strive to become a new leading supplier in the lithium carbonate application industry.
This year, the new capacity of the industry mainly comes from the leading natural alkali Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) . A few days ago, The company said on the investor interaction platform: "The Alxa natural alkali project is planned to build supporting facilities with an annual output of 7.8 million tons of soda ash and 800000 tons of baking soda. The energy consumption indicators include halogen collection projects and alkali processing projects. Relevant procedures are being handled. According to the current procedures and project construction, phase I is expected to be completed by the end of 2022, including phase I with a capacity of 3.4 million tons / year of soda ash and 300000 tons / year of baking soda. After completion, the three production lines will be put into trial operation and put into operation."
It is reported that if the company's new alkali project is put into operation, the company is expected to become the largest soda ash production enterprise in China.
In addition, Snowsky Salt Industry Group Co.Ltd(600929) in a recent survey by institutional investors, also said that the company's Hunan Chongqing salt will have a capacity of 900000 tons / year of soda ash and ammonium chloride by the end of 2022.
The prosperity of main products is high, and the long enterprises of soda ash have achieved brilliant profit growth.
As the only natural alkali production enterprise in China, the net profit of Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) 2021 reached 4.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 72 times. The company's performance forecast for the first quarter of this year released recently shows that the company made a profit of 750 million yuan to 790 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 125.19% - 137.20%.
Source: Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) 2022 first quarter performance forecast
The company said that the sales prices of its main products such as soda ash, baking soda and chemical fertilizer increased significantly compared with the same period of the previous year, the gross profit margin of the products increased, and the production and sales were booming. From the perspective of industry average cost, the cost of natural alkali method is about 860 yuan / ton, which is about 40% lower than that of ammonia alkali method and combined alkali method.
Snowsky Salt Industry Group Co.Ltd(600929) disclosed the results of the first quarter of this year. In the first quarter of this year, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 140 million yuan to 150 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 148% - 166%.
Source: Snowsky Salt Industry Group Co.Ltd(600929) 2022 first quarter performance pre increase announcement
The company recently said that in 2022, the company will continue to enjoy the huge profits and abundant cash flow brought by the high prosperity of soda ash industry, so as to provide strong financial guarantee for the expansion of other businesses of the company.
The first quarterly report of the fund entered the intensive disclosure period, and many star fund managers took this opportunity to sincerely communicate with investors.
For example, Li Xiaoxing of Yinhua Fund said frankly that he was very optimistic about the equity market and wrote nearly 6000 words to discuss investment opportunities in detail from multiple dimensions such as short-term, medium-term, medium-term and long-term.
Jiao Wei, another fund manager of Yinhua Fund, is also quite frank. He called the quarterly newspaper "a memoir between confession and confession".
In addition, the fund managed by Zou Xi, deputy general manager of RONGTONG fund, also disclosed the first quarterly report, and the playing method has changed significantly.
Li Xiaoxing p align = "center" maintain the configuration of consumption growth + scientific and technological growth
It's spring to see words like faces.
In the first quarterly report of Yinhua Xinyi, Li Xiaoxing's view is quite clear: "On the whole, we are very optimistic about the equity market and believe that the economic growth in the future will be stronger than the pessimistic expectation of the market, which is a significant difference between us and some pessimistic views of the market. At the same time, we judge that from the four dimensions of short-term, medium-term, medium-term and long-term, there are four things that have entered the end stage. Excess returns come from changes, and there will be a beginning when there is an end. Our overall investment will focus on those who benefit Direction and industry. "
Li Xiaoxing further analyzed that first, from the short-term perspective, the valuation contraction since the beginning of the year has entered the end stage as a whole, the valuation of A-Shares and some high-quality targets is at the historical average or even low position, and the price performance of shares and bonds is below the average and at the position of negative double standard deviation. From a historical point of view, it has been in a relatively attractive stage.
secondly, from the medium-term perspective, the end of the impact of the epidemic requires four conditions: first, the vaccination rate is high enough, especially for the elderly and children, which should be completed in the next year; Second, effective and cheap covid-19 drugs should be available, and the problem of capacity expansion after authorization should also be solved within one year; The third condition is that there are enough tests. At present, we already have them; The fourth is the need for adequate medical resources, which is part of the new infrastructure.
third, from the medium and long-term perspective, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has brought the globalization process that has lasted for many years to an end and the anti globalization to an beginning "essentially, our investment method is to look at the prosperity of the industry, the quality of the company, the growth rate of performance and the valuation of stocks. However, under the same conditions, one exposure is overseas and the other exposure is in China, so we think the valuation of industries with exposure in China should be higher than that of industries with exposure abroad. After all, the risk will be smaller."
fourth, from a longer-term perspective, there will be a major change in the global monetary system, and the RMB will become more attractive
In terms of portfolio configuration, Li Xiaoxing said that the portfolio still maintains the configuration of consumption growth + scientific and technological growth. Consumer stocks choose food and beverage, social service and other epidemic dissipation chains, consumer building materials, household appliances and other domestic demand real estate chains, as well as CXO industrial chain whose performance has maintained rapid growth and whose valuation has included the expectation of trade disputes. Technology stocks choose electric vehicles with completely independent supply chain, only some market exposure overseas, rapid performance growth and historically low valuation, military industry and computers with completely internal circulation and matching growth rate and valuation, and energy metals with rapid demand growth and slow supply increase.
Judging from the changes of the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund, in the first quarter, Li Xiaoxing added Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) became the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund.
Jiao Wei p align = "center" no longer stick to "resolutely not selling good companies"
In the face of the uncertainty of the fund's net performance, Yinhua Jiaowei believes that it needs to make a deep reflection on the fund's net performance in the face of the continuous impact of the quarterly financial crisis
In terms of specific adjustments, Jiao Wei said, first, cut the position of pharmaceutical stocks, retain and increase the varieties of medical beauty and OTC traditional Chinese medicine that can directly connect with end consumers, reduce the position of vaccines for innovative drugs, and CXO leading companies "since the second half of last year, the biggest pullback of the fund's net value comes from the hard resistance to the decline of medicine and the gradual increase of positions. In the turbulence in the first quarter, our reflection is that we should no longer have heavy positions. We often encounter investment objects that cannot be explained from the company's own reasons after the breakdown of industries we can't grasp skillfully and the decline. In the future, our investment in medicine is mainly based on the C-end and moderately dispersed."
2. Investment is no longer solely focused on consumption and medicine. Instead, it is dominated by the C-end business model, supplemented by the b-end business model within a limited range of understanding "the net worth withdrawal started in the third quarter of last year has educated fund managers that we need to at least have a layout in terms of growth factors and value factors, and partially give up the distinctive characteristics and offensive sharpness of the portfolio in exchange for a stable landing state."
third, realize the importance of valuation and marginal change to most companies in the portfolio, and change to dynamic balance instead of adhering to the creed of resolutely not selling good companies
Turning to his invariance and persistence, Jiao Wei said that on the one hand, the long-term investment in good companies and good business models remains unchanged, even if he is suffering and tempted in the short term. For example, reflected in the investment in large consumption, the people's pursuit of a better life will continue to shape new great companies. On the other hand, the insensitivity to business models and investment objects that cannot be understood and grasped remains unchanged. "Under the great changes in the market as a whole in the first quarter, the game strength and time dimension of market players have increased unprecedentedly. In front of this game, managers do have the confusion of admiring fish but can't retreat and form a network. However, we are convinced that no matter any game, combined with the extension of time dimension, it will eventually change from asymmetric information game to symmetric information game."
From the specific position changes of Yinhua Fuyu, Jiao Wei increased his positions in the first quarter, including Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) .
Zou Xi p align = "center" it is expected that the important bottom of A-share market has gradually appeared
Zou Xi, deputy general manager of the financing fund, also published the first quarterly report. Taking the prosperity of the financing industry under his management as an example, the position adjustment in the first quarter was quite obvious.
Specifically, the prosperity of the financing industry has remained high, the portfolio structure has been adjusted to a certain extent, the allocation of photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, construction machinery, heavy truck, securities and other industries has been reduced, and the allocation of real estate, banking, coal, construction, hotel and other industries has been increased.
Zou Xi said that at present, the combination is dominated by the cycle sector, supplemented by the configuration of the consumption sector, and the configuration of the science and technology sector is relatively low. Among them, the cycle sector is dominated by real estate, banking, coal, construction machinery, building materials, construction, heavy truck and other industries, the technology sector is dominated by photovoltaic, wind power and other industries, and the consumption sector is dominated by hotels, clothing and other industries.
As for the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) have become the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund. In addition, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Zou Xi said that it is expected that the important bottom of the A-share market has gradually appeared, and the style transformation will continue. On the contrary, the improvement of economic growth is expected to improve the valuation level of value stocks. The policy correction of the real estate market and the steady growth of infrastructure investment will improve the profit growth expectation of the cycle sector, and relevant industries, especially the real estate infrastructure industry chain, will obtain the investment opportunity of double increase in valuation and profit. The new golden decade of China's economy needs two wheel drive. If the performance of advanced manufacturing related stocks in the past two years has verified the effectiveness of "made in China's re emergence" in the A-share market, the next two years may see the "accelerated promotion of human urbanization" to improve the sustainability of the profit growth of the real estate infrastructure industry chain.
Zou Xi believes that the main line of the A-share market in 2022 can be summarized as "normalization", including the correction of policy implementation in the fields of double carbon and real estate, and the return of social life to normal after the epidemic gradually subsides.
