Recently, the spot price of live pigs has opened a wave of rebound. According to the data of pig raising data center of China pig raising network: on April 20, the current average price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) was 13.77 yuan / kg, up 0.5 yuan / kg from April 19 and 1.36 yuan / kg from last Monday; The current price of live pigs (inner three yuan) is 13.34 yuan / kg, up 0.42 yuan / kg from April 19 and 1.16 yuan / kg from last Monday; The current price of live pigs (native pigs) is 12.95 yuan / kg, up 0.37 yuan / kg from April 19 and 1.17 yuan / kg from last Monday.
Look at the pig futures market. Since this week, as of 15:00 on April 20, the main contract period of pig futures has increased by 7.30%, with an obvious upward trend. For the rise of pig futures prices, Chen jiezheng, a Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) researcher of Galaxy futures, told reporters: "the rise of pork futures price is mainly caused by the strong spot price and the excessive decline of futures disk in the early stage. Especially last weekend, the spot price of pigs across the country jumped, and the rise range of pig prices around the country is generally 0.4 yuan / kg - 0.5 yuan / kg. Therefore, the disk of pig futures has risen sharply since this week, making up for the gap and digesting the irrational decline in the early stage."
Huang Yuping, a Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) senior analyst at Dongzheng Derivatives Research Institute, told the Securities Daily: "on Monday, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that the number of fertile sows in the first quarter fell by 3.33% month on month. According to this caliber, the number of fertile sows in the current cycle has reached a high point since the end of the second quarter of 2021." So far, 8 points have been removed, almost touching the upper boundary of normal stock. However, the rise since this week is still dominated by emotion, and there are also the effects of fund transfer and month change. "
Looking at the reasons for the increase in the spot price of live pigs, Chen jiezheng said, "affected by the epidemic, the traffic control in some pig production and marketing areas has been strengthened, the inflow rate of pig sources in the South has slowed down, and the supply side is tight. Although the outward transfer in the northern market has recovered, the number of dispatching and transportation has still declined. Affected by this, the breeding side is reluctant to sell and support the price, and the acquisition of slaughtering enterprises is difficult, resulting in the continuous rise of spot price."
For the future market of spot price in pig period, Chen jiezheng said: "On the one hand, from June to October 2021, the national pig price fell sharply, the losses of breeding enterprises reached the extreme, and sows were eliminated with their cubs, which led to a sharp decline in the number of piglets in October, resulting in a significant decline in the number of pigs sold in April 2022; on the other hand, although the pork consumption side performed poorly recently affected by the epidemic, enterprises were bullish about the future market and began to carry out secondary fattening and other operations, which made the table View needs have improved. However, it should be noted that the new supply will still recover from May to June, and it remains to be seen whether the upward cycle will be started in terms of spot goods. "
Huang Yuping believes that "from the medium-term perspective, with the gradual elimination of sows and the marginal improvement of pig supply and demand in the second half of the year, the price of pigs is expected to be significantly better than that in the first half of the year. Combined with the three indicators of sow stock level, improvement of breeding efficiency and average head weight, it is expected that the main supply of the whole year (regardless of the impact of frozen products) is still at least 7% higher than that of last year, so the elasticity of pig price should be treated with caution."
From a long-term perspective, "If the removal rate of nearly one point per month continues, it is expected that the number of fertile sows will return to the normal range by the end of the second quarter of 2022. Considering the significant rebound in prices in recent months and the reduction of the willingness of the breeding side to take the initiative to remove, the number of sows will return to the 41 million level or will be postponed to the second half of the year. The foothold of this year's breeding policy is to stabilize the price and supply. If there is no major disease, the production capacity of sows may stabilize."
On April 19, Meng Wei, spokesman of the national development and Reform Commission, said, "On the one hand, China's pig production capacity has gradually decreased since July last year. At the end of March this year, the stock of fertile sows is in the green range of pig production capacity regulation. In addition, the pig price has been running low for a long time, so there is little possibility of further sharp decline. With the recovery of later consumption, the pig price is expected to gradually rise to a reasonable range; on the other hand, China's pig epidemic prevention and control ability has been greatly enhanced in recent years, and the efficiency of sow breeding has also improved It has been improved, especially the production capacity of fertile sows is generally reasonable, and it is unlikely that there will be a sharp rise after the bottom rebound of pig prices in the later stage. "
As the spot price of live pigs gradually stabilized, the pork concept sector in the A-share market also rose recently Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) data show that since this week, as of the closing on April 20, the pork sector has risen by 3.65% during the period, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Stock Index (with a cumulative decline of 1.87% during the period). In terms of individual stocks, a total of 27 individual stocks outperformed the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index in terms of cumulative growth during the period, including 3 individual stocks, including Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) 14.15% and 10.88% respectively. The market performance was excellent.
Table: list of individual stocks with a cumulative increase of more than 5% in the pork sector from April 18 to April 20P align = "center" prepared by Yao Yao
