Last year, the industry's biggest concern about the new energy vehicle industry came from two points: upstream raw material prices rose and subsidies declined
Before the end of March, after a price increase operation in major mainstream vehicle manufacturers. According to the sales data of Q1 new energy passenger vehicles, the price rise did not depress the terminal demand. On the contrary, under the psychological pressure of "copying the reserve price", the retail data increased significantly year-on-year.
Specifically, 445000 new energy passenger vehicles were retailed in March, a year-on-year increase of 138.4% and a month on month increase of 80.6%; Q1 retail sales of 1.005 million new energy passenger vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 135.8% and a month on month decrease of 11.4%. In March, 85000 plug-in hybrid cars were retailed, with a year-on-year increase of 201.2% and a month on month increase of 43.3%; The retail sales of 219000 vehicles in Q1 increased by 212.9% year-on-year and 4.6% month on month.
in march, the penetration rate of restricted cities reached 42.3% , and the penetration rate of new energy in non restricted and restricted cities was 28.7% and 31.2% respectively, a record high. In March, the new energy penetration rates of first tier, second tier, third tier, fourth tier and lower tier cities were 42.3%, 33.9%, 30.6%, 23.6% and 17.9% respectively.
The price rise can not stop the surging orders. Has the new energy vehicle industry ushered in a bottom reversal?
Exploring the sales logic of the first quarter of 22 years seems to be unable to completely falsify last year's concerns.
Firstly, lithium carbonate price increase + subsidy decline , the impact on the terminal car purchase cost is about 800011000 yuan, but for Hongguang mini, which has no subsidy and has small single vehicle charging capacity, has a small impact on the cost increase ;
Secondly, the sales mode of new energy vehicles is order sales, resulting in 3-april including the order ;
In addition, for just in need people, the rise and fall of terminal price is not a question of whether to buy or not, but more a question of which brand and model to buy. Therefore, the upstream price transmission has little impact. Another detail is that although manufacturers have raised their prices to varying degrees from the beginning of this year to the end of March, the effective time of price increase is basically before the middle of March or the end of March, which also promotes a certain concentration of orders and leads to more consumers' rational or follow the trend
The following second quarter is the traditional off-season for the automotive industry. If the key uncertainties mentioned above cannot be improved or solved, the excellent sales report in the first quarter cannot be optimistic.
On the other hand, due to the outbreak of epidemic and overseas geographical ZZ conflicts, the impact of long industrial chain has gradually become the main concern of demand delay
Upstream commodity prices have been rising, including steel, aluminum, coal, battery main materials, etc environmental uncertainty increases the market's expectation of price confidence fluctuates. Secondly, the speed of economic recovery affects terminal purchase intention and purchasing power
It can be seen that the price rise of upstream raw materials or the range / time of subsidy refund can achieve a rational balance through ZC's certain intervention, but the uncertainty of the epidemic situation increases the controllable difficulty coefficient.
How to break the game? As a family optional large consumption, a large manufacturing industry with profound economic significance and an intelligent technology industry with far-reaching impact on the future. Who can revive adversity?
It can be observed from four dimensions:
first, companies that own a large proportion of upstream resources The raw material with the largest upstream cost pressure of lithium battery is lithium carbonate, accounting for about 25% ~ 30% of the battery material cost. Taking Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) as an example, in terms of the layout of lithium, nickel and cobalt resources in the upstream, the right to self-sufficiency in raw materials is obtained through acquisition, joint venture, equity participation, participation in industrial funds, fixed growth and other means.
Companies involved include but are not limited to: Australian lithium mining enterprises Pilbara minerals, Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) ; North American nickel, Guangdong Bangpu, Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Qingshan iron and steel and Indonesia IMIP jointly built Indonesia laterite nickel mine. The subsidiary obtained 25% equity of KFM with us $137.5 million, while KFM owned 95% equity of kisanfu copper cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
In September last year, the company announced that it planned to invest in the construction of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) new lithium battery manufacturing base (Yichun) project in Yichun City, Jiangxi Province, with a total investment of no more than 13.5 billion yuan.
mining right advantages enable enterprises to have relatively lower costs and enjoy higher gross profit margin. With the increase of uncertainty in the progress of overseas new supply, the mismatch between supply and demand of lithium resources continues, and companies with upstream mining rights and self supply security of resources are expected to continue to benefit from industry dividends
second, lock the material production capacity through holding or joint venture construction according to the calculation, after the integration of the positive pole, the net profit per ton is expected to increase from 10000 yuan / ton of the positive pole link to 34000 yuan / ton of the positive pole industry chain, 4000 yuan / ton of the negative pole link to 7000 yuan / ton of the negative pole link, and 3500 yuan / ton of electrolyte to 8500 yuan / ton. The integration will significantly increase the profit.
third, pre layout the capacity of new technologies, such as the capacity layout of 4680 batteries thus derived a "new industrial chain": high nickel cathode ( Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) etc.); The compound growth rate of silicon-based negative electrode is expected to reach 46% from 2022 to 2025 ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , beiteri, etc.); Carbon nanotubes ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) is one of the largest carbon nanotube manufacturers in China); New lithium salt lifsi ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) : the basic material device with an annual output of 20000 tons of electrolyte and the lifsi device with an annual output of 4000 tons have reached a stable production state); Structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) : the company has the ability to produce 4680 battery technology accumulation and compact structural parts of cylindrical batteries; Jdm Jingda Machine(Ningbo)Co.Ltd(603088) : the prototype production of steel shell 4680 stretching equipment has been completed; Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co.Ltd(300953) : deep binding of structural parts business Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ); Equipment: laser film cutting equipment ( Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) : laser film cutting equipment, coater, etc.), coater, winder ( Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) : winder suitable for all polar ear cylindrical battery has been introduced), high-speed laser film maker ( Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) : leader of high-speed laser film maker, leading technology of electrodeless ear cutting, which has been verified in Tesla 4680 battery) Welding equipment ( Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) : with 4680 battery welding technology and existing prototype assembly and commissioning) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain;
fourth, energy storage business expansion 2022, affected by the price rise of lithium carbonate, the market is worried that the rising cost of energy storage system will weaken the economy of energy storage and finally weaken the demand for installed capacity of the industry; However, from this week's global energy storage projects, a total of 4224 MW (including 3024 MW / 6099mwh of electrochemical energy storage) were added, and about 2930 / 619 / 100 MW were added in China / the United States / Australia respectively California's energy storage contribution rate has reached 10% of the peak load of the power grid.
Recently, Tesla unveiled the latest Mega Megapack energy storage project "townsite solar and storage facility", which has a capacity of 360mwh and can supply power to 60000 households. Located in Boulder, Nevada, the project is one of Tesla's largest Megapack projects. It can be seen that the demand for overseas energy storage is strong, rising instead of falling.
According to the performance forecast of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit of 14-16.5 billion yuan from January to December 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 150.75% - 195.52%. The main reasons for the performance growth are: the market penetration of new energy vehicles and energy storage increased in 2021, driving the growth of battery sales; Market development has made progress, new production capacity has been released, and production and sales have increased accordingly company's energy storage sales volume in 2020 was 2.4gwh, 21q3 reached 8gwh, and the gross profit margin remained at about 35% with the support and promotion of energy storage industry by more provinces and cities, fire storage combined frequency modulation can improve the frequency modulation performance of traditional power supply without adding frequency modulation capacity, and the contribution proportion of energy storage performance of relevant companies is expected to continue to increase. Head battery enterprises, energy storage converters and high-precision temperature control will benefit.
