Over the past week, the A-share consumer sector has rebounded significantly. Brokerage institutions believe that the frequent blowing of policy warm wind provides positive support for the stabilization of the market of the consumer sector, and the industries previously affected by the epidemic are expected to usher in a marginal improvement.
consumer sector stabilized and rebounded
It is understood that from April to September this year, from the 18th to the end of each month, consumers in Beijing can receive green energy-saving coupons through apps such as jd.com; From the perspective of purchasable categories, it mainly covers household appliances, computers, printers and other products.
The reporter further combed and found that previously, relevant departments in Beijing had made it clear that they would issue consumption vouchers totaling more than 300 million yuan. Since this year, many governments across the country have issued a series of consumption promotion policies. Last week, the State Council executive meeting deployed policies and measures to promote consumption; On April 19, the national development and Reform Commission made it clear that it would promote the introduction of policy documents to further release consumption potential and promote the sustainable recovery of consumption, strive to stabilize current consumption and comprehensively implement policies to release consumption potential.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities chief economist Huang Wentao believes that the follow-up policy of steady growth in various fields may be the main line of this year's policy, and the economic "troika" and internal and external circulation may become the driving force of steady growth in the future. In the short term, the consumption segments explicitly mentioned at the regular session last week will be rapidly boosted, and the possibility of formulating a more detailed consumption stimulus plan will not be ruled out in the long term.
From the performance of the secondary market, the data show that the Shenwan food and beverage index has increased by 6.59% since April 12. Recently, some listed consumer companies have also received frequent attention from investment institutions. In the past month, Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) , Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) received more than 170 research institutions.
epidemic has a significant impact
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in March, the first decline since August 2020. In this regard, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) chief Macro Analyst Cheng Qiang believes that the spread of the epidemic has significantly dragged down consumption since March, and the urgency of rapid control of the epidemic and steady growth policies has further increased. When the epidemic situation gradually improves, the policies for service consumption and overall consumption will have better conditions for implementation. It is expected that the steady growth policy will also make efforts to ensure the rapid recovery of the economy and the improvement of residents' employment.
From the perspective of market fundamentals, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analyst Li Jinglei estimated that since last week, the logic of repair has been gradually reflected on the disk of the large consumption sector. However, there are still differences on the expectation of the bottom of profit. If the epidemic continues to ferment, the bottom of profit may be postponed to the third quarter. From the perspective of industry, among the major consumption industries, only the annual performance expectations of beauty care and food and beverage industries are slightly increased, and the performance growth of social services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries emphasizing reverse logic is expected to be higher.
"The market has sought after the sectors with high performance certainty and possible benefits under the epidemic. The trend of the food and beverage sector since last week is still defined as a phased rebound. The control of the epidemic is an important observation point for whether the fundamentals are reversed." Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) food and beverage analyst Meng sishuo said.
focus on the leader of undervaluation
For the future performance and investment opportunities of the consumer sector, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) analyst Gu Xi believes that under the continuous impact of the epidemic, the performance of mandatory consumption is stronger than optional consumption. It is suggested to pay attention to the new retail model with extended coverage in multiple scenarios such as community group purchase and real-time retail. At the same time, April is in the centralized disclosure period of annual report and first quarter report. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic, the leader of undervalued value that can maintain steady growth in the next year's performance and good performance of terminal retail in the first quarter, and focus on the beauty and gold jewelry sectors.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities chief analyst of food, beverage and beauty makeup Zi Meng found that the areas benefited by consumer vouchers mainly include basic food, household appliances, automobiles, catering, tourism, hotels, etc. under the favorable policies, these industries previously affected by the epidemic are expected to usher in a marginal improvement. "These industries are at the starting point of the general trend of recovery. The fundamentals of relevant leading enterprises may usher in repair opportunities, which will show a more brilliant performance under the resonance of the dual factors of the recovery of industry prosperity and the improvement of market penetration." He said.
Liu Xuan, food and beverage analyst of Bohai Securities, is optimistic about some leading high-quality segments, and the valuation of relevant varieties has long-term investment value. It is suggested that more high-end Baijiu should be determined to exchange space for time and focus on the market of continuous high-end baijiu. In terms of popular products, it is suggested to select the dairy industry with controllable cost during the year and the beer sector with relatively good competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission.
