Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, the stock index reappeared the differentiation pattern. The opening price of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was mixed. The gem index rose and fell, and then went all the way down, while the Shanghai index showed relative resistance to decline and remained volatile near yesterday's closing point; In the afternoon, all three major indexes plunged downward, the Shanghai index struggled to pull back in the late trading, while the gem index continued the callback trend.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the market is currently in the consolidation state of platform shock. Due to the rapid rotation speed of hot spots in the sector recently, there is no profit-making effect, the market popularity is relatively low, the trading volume shrinks significantly, and there is no obvious stabilization signal . Operationally, investors can maintain low or empty positions, continue to choose the wait-and-see strategy, and patiently wait for the market to stabilize spontaneously.
From a technical perspective, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that on Tuesday, the A-share market surged higher and encountered resistance, and the stock indexes of the two cities rose slightly and fell back in the morning. The popular industries such as semiconductors, automobiles, wine making and electronic components, which led the rise the day before yesterday, fell across the board. The cyclical industries such as pesticides, chemical fertilizers, coal and oil rose against the trend. The Shanghai index fluctuated narrowly around 3200 throughout the day, and the market hot spots continued to show the characteristics of frequent conversion. The trading volume of the two cities is less than 800 billion yuan, and the characteristics of the stock game remain the same.
As for the future market, the institution further analyzed that the current stock index is in the weak consolidation stage, and the future market is facing the choice of breakthrough direction, before the trend is clear, it is suggested that investors should watch more and move less, and pay close attention to the changes of policy, capital and external market . It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Dongguan Securities said that the stock index still repeats around 3200 points, and the sluggish volume and energy of the two markets shows a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. However, with the continuous force of the steady growth policy, it is expected to drive the market sentiment to be active. It is expected that the market is expected to stabilize in shock, and pay attention to the rotation of the sector and the change of volume and energy . In operation, it is suggested to focus on the layout of the middle line, and pay attention to the industries such as finance, food and beverage, electrical equipment, steel and coal.
Wanhe Securities believes that the current anxiety point of the market is still the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy. The continuation of the epidemic in Shanghai and other places has a great negative impact on economic development the recent policy is stable, and the market expectation signal is strong. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the starting point of the stable growth policy, but the market may remain volatile in the short term disturbed by the epidemic . In terms of industry, we can pay attention to industries related to the stable growth chain, such as real estate, infrastructure, etc., as well as industries related to the post cycle of real estate.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that at present, the negative factors at home and abroad have not been completely cleared, the market mood is low, and the repair will take time. In this process, it is vulnerable to periodic impact and continues to "grind the bottom". We maintain our previous judgment. At this stage, we suggest to focus on large cap value stocks with better defense ability and valuation repair space. The dividend proportion is high, and the dividend index dominated by upstream resources and its component targets can be used as a defense choice. At the same time, the recovery expectation after epidemic is taking shape. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the recovery of supply chains across the country .
Macroscopically, Capital Securities said that the GDP growth in the first quarter basically met the consensus expectations of the market, and the economic operation logic reflected by the data was also relatively clear: the epidemic is the core variable affecting the current economic recovery, and the policy has made efforts to hedge the economic downturn. In addition, the weakness of real estate has not changed significantly, and the manufacturing industry is still resilient due to weak external demand. However, it is necessary to observe the adverse impact of the continuous impact of the follow-up epidemic on China's supply chain.
The agency further analyzed that in the short term, there are certain variables in geopolitics, the trend of China's epidemic, the implementation of stable growth policy and the upward range of US debt. It is suggested to follow up and wait and respond flexibly to . The undervalued value is still relatively dominant, but the structural differentiation may enter the middle and late stage. The Treasury bond yield center may remain low in the current range, and it may take some time for the market to repair economic expectations.
In terms of operational strategy, Guosheng Securities pointed out that due to the difficulty of raising public funds and the lack of incremental funds in the market, the institutional controlled stocks are still in a weak equilibrium state, and it is difficult to reverse the track stocks, which is judged to be oversold. However, in view of the full downward exploration of the market, the "real growth" with good sex price ratio appears one after another; On the other hand, hot money moves rapidly outside the "site" of public offering. The structural characteristics of the site are significant, real estate and infrastructure are weak, and retail and auto parts are different. At present, hot money "stops" in the agricultural industry. The internal and external situation is complex, the demand for national security has been continuously pushed up, and new drivers of economic development need to be sought. Digital economy, military civilian integration and agriculture can be paid attention to.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) mentioned that the epidemic situation and the lag of policies delayed the mid-term repair market in the second and third quarters, but did not change the trend. The pessimistic expectation has been fully released. The market is imminent. The epidemic inflection point and resumption of work and production are the most critical market inflection points.
In terms of configuration, suggests sticking to the main line of steady growth, paying attention to the real estate industry chain, and continuing to lay out , focusing on "Two Lows", specifically including: 1) varieties with relatively low valuation, it is suggested to pay attention to high-quality developers, property management and building materials enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, and communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, Smart grid and energy storage in the field of new infrastructure, data center and cloud infrastructure benefiting from "computing from the East and the west", and fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials.
YueKai Securities said that under the influence of the policy underpinning and the approaching heavyweight meeting, the probability of A-Shares continued the trend of shock repair, and the market was dominated by structural market, it is suggested to focus on three main lines first, focus on the main line of steady growth driven by policies . Internal and external disturbances increase the downward pressure on the economy. As the main policy line, steady growth will still be the main market in the long run. It is suggested to pay attention to the new and old infrastructure directly benefiting from counter cyclical regulation and the targets with outstanding performance and low valuation in the real estate sector.
second, focus on the main line of large consumption . In terms of policies, the NSC will deploy policies and measures to promote consumption and comprehensively implement policies to release consumption potential; In terms of capital, the recent recovery in the issuance of public funds with consumption theme is expected to bring incremental capital into the market; At the company level, after the cost side pressure of leading companies is gradually relieved, it is expected to enjoy the dividend of profit elasticity repair in the medium and long term.
third, pay attention to the large financial sector with favorable RRR reduction policy . The RRR reduction helps to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions. For the banking sector, the RRR reduction helps to slow down the cost of bank liabilities, support the performance, and pay attention to the undervalued core stocks with high asset quality. For the securities sector, the loose liquidity environment helps to boost the market risk appetite, and the low-level securities sector is expected to usher in the valuation repair market.
