Today (April 20), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. In the morning, there was a wave of inertia decline in the stock index, and the gem index showed a pulse weakening pattern, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen main board index then maintained a weak shock. There was an upward attack in the session, and quickly followed the decline of the gem index. The weakness was seen everywhere.
From the disk point of view, the market of light index and heavy individual stocks continues, the rise and fall of industry and concept sectors are different, and the local profit-making effect still exists. White horse consumer stocks have taken the lead, and food, Baijiu, household appliances and other sectors have been outstanding. In addition, tourism, hotels, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, airports and other performances are also good. In the food and beverage sector, as of press time, Weiwei shares, Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) and other trading limits; It is worth mentioning that among the prefabricated dishes, the 20cm limit of Yike food, Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) , Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) , Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) etc. also rose.
If the follow-up epidemic situation improves, what direction will the layout take China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) previously said that it sorted out the important events related to the epidemic since 2020 and summarized the market performance after five rounds of the epidemic were expected to improve. Considering the elasticity of increase and the probability of increase, if the subsequent epidemic situation is effectively controlled, we can focus on the following layout: 1. Alcohol: the restoration of economic activities is expected to improve the prosperity of the industry; 2. Tourism retail (duty-free): take advantage of the dislocation of the epidemic situation and follow the trend of consumption upgrading; 3. Aviation: after a short period of pressure, the profit elasticity will eventually be released; 4. Scenic spots and hotels: normalization of epidemic prevention and control, and marginal recovery of scenic spots and hotels.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] food and beverage
The river becomes warm in spring, and the Baijiu river is the prophet. Now, the restrictions on epidemic control and large-scale movement of people are still the main reasons for the demand for baijiu. The epidemic has been extended from mid 3 to mid 4, and the impact on the sales volume of Baijiu is relatively weak. On the margin of ours, 1) the recent positive signs of the epidemic are increasing. It is expected that Baijiu consumption will be fully restored in the short peak season of the Dragon Boat Festival, and the whole year is expected to continue to achieve high growth. 2) Jiangsu and other places began to require the restoration of Suzhou Expressway crossings. The previous measures to restrict the flow of personnel on a large scale were relaxed on the edge, and the secondary and high-end performance flexibility was relatively large in the recovery of business activities. 3) The first quarterly reports of major liquor enterprises have successively disclosed that the mainstream liquor enterprises are expected to continue to achieve rapid growth and continue to be optimistic about the first quarterly report. 4) we have concentrated on the channel inventory problem, and now we are in the inventory stage of Baijiu off-season, and the inventory level is slightly lower than the same period in previous years. Most of the Baijiu valuation has dropped to a more comfortable interval. With the orderly development of Shanghai’s resumption of production and resumption of production, the Yangtze River Delta integration has led to the relatively beneficial effect of the emblem and the Su Jiu. In the price segment, we expect that the sub high-end price segment with more concentrated business banquets will recover in advance.
East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that the mood is good and the consumption recovery is on the way. Baijiu: the mood is good, and the recovery is on the way. The annual report disclosure season or boost confidence in the market, most liquor enterprises in 2021 achieved relatively bright results, the first quarter of 2022 has laid a solid foundation for the whole year growth. In the current situation of rebound, some regional consumer scenarios are missing or causing demand decline, and distributors’ confidence is frustrated. However, the two quarter Baijiu is selling low season, and the short-term epidemic situation is not changed. It is a highly selective and high-end Baijiu sector with risk resistance and supply and demand. Maotai had a bright growth rate in the first quarter, strong determination in Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) reform, volume control and price support, and the valuation was cost-effective. The highest growth rate of the second high Baijiu sector is affected by the epidemic spread to small, the advantage market, large single product volume potential strong strong growth wine enterprises.
Beer: the epidemic has impacted the short-term sales of beer. With the decline of valuation, the medium and long-term layout opportunities are highlighted. We look forward to the inflection point of the epidemic. Under the influence of the epidemic, Shanghai and other places have taken strict sealing and control measures, and the beer drinking channels have been seriously damaged. At the same time, the non drinking channels have also been affected by policies such as home isolation in many places, the offline passenger flow has decreased, and the mobile sales have declined. At present, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) mainly distributes in Shandong market, and the operating revenue of Shandong market will account for 49.77% in 2021. In March, Shandong market was seriously affected by the epidemic, and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) sales fell significantly. China Resources beer market is relatively scattered. On the whole, the impact of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) is greater than that of China Resources beer Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) . Beer manufacturers began to prepare goods in mid and late April. In the peak season from May to August, the overall valuation of the beer sector has fallen, and the opportunities for medium and long-term layout have become prominent. They look forward to the inflection point of the epidemic and the demand rebound.
Condiment: the performance in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and the performance rebound after the epidemic is highly uncertain. At the beginning of the second quarter, the revenue and profit of the condiment industry are under pressure, but the impact will gradually weaken with the improvement of the epidemic situation; The price increase and channel destocking in the second half of 2021 have accumulated potential for the performance rebound; In Q2 of 2021, the base of revenue and profit of condiment industry is low; Overall, the performance of condiment industry in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, but the performance differentiation may be more obvious. When the current round of epidemic situation improves, the downstream demand for condiments will recover and the transmission of price increases will be more certain. When the inflection point of single condiment leading demand is approaching, the performance elasticity is strong; Companies with differentiated product positioning and better cost control in the compound condiment industry have more advantages. Related targets: Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) .
[Theme 2] tourist hotel
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that the impact of the short-term epidemic is uncertain, and the trend of long-term control optimization remains unchanged. Over time, the industry will eventually return to normal level. We believe that the current overall valuation of the social service industry is at a relatively low historical level, and it is recommended to optimize the timing layout of individual stocks. Maintain the coverage target rating, profit forecast and target price. Optimistic about the long-term consumption leader with high growth certainty China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ; Jiumaojiu, hailun and Yum China are recommended for catering; Pay attention to the resilience of hotel tourism recovery. The three hotel leaders Huazhu, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , tourism leader Fosun tourism culture, China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) .
For hotels and scenic spots, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that in the short-term dimension, the impact of this round of epidemic on Residents’ travel may be greater than the previous rebound. It is suggested to pay attention to the post callback allocation opportunities of Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group-s, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) .
In the long-term dimension, we continue to be optimistic about the optimization of supply pattern and leading growth of the hotel industry. Several rounds of epidemics have disturbed the pace of recovery, but the leading enterprises continue to open stores rapidly, individual hotels continue to clear, and the logic of supply pattern optimization continues to be verified. China’s hotel chain rate and industry concentration still have great room for improvement compared with developed countries. We continue to be optimistic about the growth brought by the opening of leading hotels against the trend and the upgrading of medium and high-end hotels.
Dongguan Securities said that at present, China’s epidemic situation is still severe, and the demand for tourism travel may be under pressure in the short term. However, the recent breakthrough in the research and development of domestic covid-19 specific drugs has boosted the confidence of epidemic control. From the perspective of the recovery of tourism economy in major countries around the world, the certainty of epidemic control is high.
[Theme 3] agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that from the current time node, the market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has dropped to a historically low level, and the configuration window has gradually opened. The choice of specific targets to choose from among among the specific targets is to be recommended in turn for the selection of specific targets, with the following to be recommended in turn: the0 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 8 , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , etc. are expected to benefit fully.
In addition, as a country with a large population, food security is very important. National macro policies have always placed food security and seed industry revitalization at a strategic high point. The prosperity of seed industry has increased, and listed companies related to seed industry have ushered in an important policy window. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
At the same time, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) mentioned that in the current environment of rising global food prices and restrictions on food exports in many countries, GM technology is expected to accelerate the implementation. Key recommendations include, Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) : rich reserves of transgenic technology Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) : corn seeds are expected to rise in both quantity and price.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that in terms of planting, the prices of wheat and corn remained high, and the demand for seeds remained high. In the long run, the revision of the seed law is conducive to the improvement of industry concentration and the market share of leading companies. The commercialization process of medium and long-term genetically modified seeds will continue to be promoted, which will benefit the seed leader. Recommended Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) .
In terms of feed, the price of fish meal increased significantly, and the price of feed raw materials remained high. It is expected that the overall production and sales of feed in the first half of 2022 will continue to grow, especially aquatic feed and ruminant feed. The price rise of feed raw materials such as corn, soybean meal and fish meal has slightly squeezed the gross profit margin of feed processing, but the leading enterprises have a strong ability to transfer costs to downstream breeding plants, and the market share is expected to increase. It is recommended that Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , and pay attention to Hefeng animal husbandry.
[theme 4] airport
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pointed out that under the combined influence of weak supply and demand, low passenger occupancy and high oil prices, we expect airlines to still record significant losses in the first quarter, and it is necessary to wait patiently for this round of epidemic to be controlled. However, we are still optimistic about the improvement of supply and demand structure in the post epidemic period. With the increase of economy class full fare, the revenue level of airlines may make a breakthrough and enter the profit cycle.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that it would continue to grasp the recovery time of air passenger transport. Up to now, the epidemic situation in many places has been disturbed repeatedly. It is expected that the recovery time point of the air passenger transport market in 2022 may be later than expected. It is suggested to further grasp the time point of covid-19 specific drug research and development and epidemic improvement. It is suggested to pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
The agency further analyzed that the covid-19 variation superimposed the “customer to goods” stop, and the logic of the high view of the cross-border e-commerce logistics track remains unchanged. In the long run, the cross-border e-commerce industry has broad incremental space, and the logistics demand of cross-border e-commerce has high growth. At the same time, due to the recent emergence of covid-19 mutant strain and the superposition of the Civil Aviation Administration’s call to stop “changing passengers to goods”, it is expected that the tight supply of air cargo capacity will continue in the future, and the air cargo price may maintain a high range.
