Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : the second quarter is an important warehouse building time point in the first half of the year for the food and beverage sector
The second quarter from April is an important time point for the establishment of positions in the food and beverage sector in the first half of the year. On the one hand, the peripheral environment, such as the epidemic situation and peripheral situation conflict, may gradually bottom out and go out of the trend. At the same time, policies to promote consumption are also intensively released, superimposing the loose expectation of real estate; On the other hand, the subject matter of each sector has basically entered a reasonable range in the early stage, and the expectation of the first quarter report is also basically price in, starting to enter the expected stage of April and the second quarter.
From the Baijiu sector, the two quarter of the traditional sales slack season + many negative factors perturbation caused valuation to kill a reasonable interval, investment opportunities gradually appear. Under the influence of stable epidemic situation and effective policy, Q3 is basically well oriented and has strong certainty. It is expected that market confidence will gradually recover in the second half of Q2, so Baijiu will be built or bargained in the two quarter. It is suggested that Maotai should be the main target in the left defensive period, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) should be selected for the long-term bottom configuration angle on the left, and drunkards and other secondary high-end products should be configured in the right offensive period.
From the perspective of dairy products sector, the demand is rigid throughout the year, which can cope with the adverse factors of the epidemic. In the second quarter, it climbed over the mountain of high base in the first quarter and entered the stage of low base. It is expected that the next two, three and four quarters will be flat, and the superimposed milk price is expected to contribute positively to the improvement of gross profit margin and profit rate of the two strong companies. In combination with the possibility of external factors in the second quarter, it will improve the financial support, The second quarter will be the beginning of important position building and stock price rise. In addition, the cheese sector also entered a period of mom acceleration in the second quarter. It is suggested to buy Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Mengniu Dairy, Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) .
From the condiment sector, the second quarter of last year faced multiple shocks such as high inventory + community group purchase diversion + cost pressure, and the whole industry suffered heavy losses. The biggest uncertainty of Q2 this year lies in the epidemic. The whole industry is actively responding to the challenge of the epidemic, and the probability will usher in high growth under the low base. However, the real catalysis of the stock price comes from the later cost reduction and epidemic mitigation stage, so it is recommended to continue to hold it in the second quarter. It is suggested that Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) .
From the perspective of beer sector, the industry fundamentals are good in February, and the epidemic situation from March to April has an impact. If the epidemic situation can be effectively controlled after May, the peak season sales are still worth looking forward to. We judge that may is expected to be the inflection point of beer in the second quarter. At the current stage, it is recommended to build warehouses and gradually open additional warehouses. The proposal of the subject pays attention to the greater flexibility Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , robustness Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and certainty of China Resources beer.
From the perspective of the snack food sector, most of the targets are optional, which is highly related to the recovery of the epidemic, consumption capacity and economic trend. It is recommended to focus on the targets with strong consumption toughness and high performance certainty, and recommend Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) . In addition, mustard will significantly reduce the cost and benefit, with high attention. For the rest, it is suggested that the layout before the epidemic situation is restored, such as Anjing, Jue Wei, etc.
Therefore, on the whole, the core recommendation for buying in the second quarter is to focus on the dairy sector, which can be laid out at the moment; Secondly, pay attention to leisure food stocks with smooth logic; Pay attention to the second quarter layout opportunity of beer sector again; Then the Baijiu sector will be selected at the bottom of the stock market. Finally, the condiment sector will observe the cost, epidemic situation and valuation, and then make the layout.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : the pre prepared vegetables were catalysed by the epidemic upsurge, and the epidemic damaged stocks with large decline in the early stage rebounded
Prefabricated vegetables rose as a result of the epidemic, and stocks damaged by the epidemic with a large decline in the early stage rebounded. Under the dual pressure of the impact of the epidemic and rising costs, the stock price of popular products continued to callback, and the market pessimism has been fully reflected in the stock price. The valuations of many companies fell back to the lower quartile in recent five years.
(1) the C-end demand of prefabricated vegetables has accelerated its penetration under the epidemic situation, and the logic of long-term growth is clear. Under the epidemic situation, residents had to cook at home every day, which made many consumers experience the convenience brought by prefabricated vegetables and accelerated the C-end penetration of prefabricated vegetables industry. In March, semi-finished dishes on platforms such as HEMA, dingdong shopping and Jingdong fresh food were in short supply. We are optimistic about the long-term development trend of the prefabricated vegetable industry. There is room to improve the permeability of both b-end and C-end, and the industry is in the early stage of rapid development. It is suggested to focus on Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , etc.
(2) the negative impact of the beer epidemic has weakened, market confidence has recovered, and the current high cost of the industry is superimposed. The market is expected that the price increase of the leading enterprises will be close and rebound more. On the whole, the high-end pace of the beer industry is still accelerating, and the performance of leaders such as China Resources, Tsingtao beer and heavy beer is outstanding in 2021. In the future, under the continuous optimization of high-end + cost / efficiency, the logic of long-term improvement of the profitability of the sector will continue to be realized.
(3) the inventory of quick-frozen rice noodles, convenience foods and other categories with strong hoarding properties accelerated to be cleared in March. After the national transportation and logistics returned to normal, it is expected that there is a demand for replenishing inventory. Superimposed on the low base of Q2 last year, Q2 may have performance elasticity, such as Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Keming noodles, Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , etc.
(4) the epidemic affects travel, drinking, sports and other consumption scenes. Under the obstruction of e-commerce logistics, the estimated demand for non necessities such as leisure food, halogen products and pre mixed wine is reduced, the short-term performance of some stocks is damaged, the current valuation level is low, and it is expected to achieve high performance flexibility after the epidemic situation slows down. It is recommended to pay attention, such as Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) etc.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the valuation of the food and beverage industry has dropped to a reasonable range, and some sub circuits are at a low valuation position
Dairy products: the epidemic situation does not change the profit inflection point trend and continues to be recommended. In the middle and late March, the supply chain was blocked due to the blockade of some regions, which dragged down the performance of the shipping end of dairy enterprises. The demand for liquid milk is rigid, which is one of the priority supplies of daily necessities, and the impact of the epidemic is relatively controllable. Combined with the channel investigation and judgment, the unit number of Yili liquid milk increased in March, Mengniu liquid milk decreased, and the demand for white milk was stronger than that of milk beverage and yogurt.
Beer: focus on the peak season and high-end. The epidemic affects the rhythm and does not change the direction. The epidemic has a significant impact on the sales growth of leading companies in March, which is expected to be 10-20 PCTs If the epidemic can be controlled in early May, it is expected that the sales volume of beer leading enterprises will still rise in 2022; If the epidemic development drags into the peak season of beer sales, beer sales will be under pressure in 2022. The cost pressure is still within the tolerable range. Judging from the current price, the increase of ton cost caused by the cost pressure is expected to be controlled at 5-10pcs. The leader is stepping up the price increase before the peak season.
At the current time point, considering the impact range of the epidemic, recommend Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , and emphasize the long-term allocation value of China Resources beer and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ; If the epidemic can be controlled nationwide, from the perspective of rebound space, China Resources beer and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) .
Condiment: short-term uncertainty increases, and observe the demand profit inflection point. In 2022q1, the sales growth of condiment industry is under pressure. It is expected that the revenue growth of most companies is slower than that of the whole year. The main reasons are as follows: ① there is a certain pressure on the performance of factory caliber due to the dislocation of Spring Festival; ② The epidemic spread in many parts of the country has had a certain impact on the demand of catering channels and logistics transportation. Meanwhile, the cost of raw materials continues to be under pressure, which is expected to cause the profit growth rate to be still lower than the revenue growth rate. Looking forward to 2022q2, due to the low DE inventory base of 2021q2 industry, 2022q2 was originally expected to achieve rapid growth in revenue and gradually show flexibility in profits, but at present, several uncertain factors still need to be paid attention to. After the previous share price adjustment, the valuation of key companies has basically returned to the central level in 2019. Considering the short-term fundamental pressure, we believe that the current valuation of the sector is reasonably high.
Affected by the rebound of the epidemic, rising costs, weak demand and other negative factors, the valuation of the food and beverage industry has fallen to a reasonable range, and some sub circuits are in the position of low valuation. We are optimistic about the release of China’s consumption power for a long time. After three years of complex business environment, the competitiveness and leading position of food leaders have been further consolidated and the long-term certainty has been improved. The profit turning point of dairy products has reached, and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Mengniu Dairy are recommended; Beer pays attention to the controllable time point of the epidemic (whether it affects the sales in the peak season), and comprehensively considers the high-end profit elasticity, cashing speed and valuation opportunity layout; The valuation of condiments is reasonably high, and the fundamentals are improved, but it is difficult to exceed expectations. Pay attention to objects with defense value, Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) ; Pay attention to possible oversold layout opportunities, such as Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) , Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) .
Huaxin Securities: Post epidemic era! Consumption welcomes recovery food and beverage sector strongly recommends four main lines
Considering the post epidemic era, consumption is welcome to revive. We think that the food and beverage sector recommends the following four main lines: 1) the current epidemic situation in the Shanghai area is the worst hit area. We recommend relatively large stocks with relatively large early impact and relatively less impact on Shanghai area. The Baijiu sector recommends Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) , recommended by liquor stores Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , recommended by mass products Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , etc.
2) the early stage of the larger share of the stock and the damaged stocks. We recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) for Baijiu sector, and recommend Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) and Three Squirrels Inc(300783) that the stores are expected to gradually restore. Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , and Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , and the potential recovery of the products, such as Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , and the products that are affected by the epidemic, will be gradually restored. Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) etc.
3) the stocks with a large early decline and two quarter results have certain certainty. We recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) for Baijiu sector. The public products recommend Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , etc.
4) the stocks with a larger early fall and 51 may benefit from the Baijiu sector. We recommend Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) . The public products recommend Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , “Dan”, “Huarun” and “beer”.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the food and beverage industry has experienced year to date adjustment. The worst moment has passed
We believe that home consumption has become the main axis in the early two quarter of the year. Under the plagued by the epidemic situation, many people in Shanghai are now asking the residents of Shanghai for guidance on “hoarding goods at home”. We believe that at the moment of consumption at home, prefabricated vegetables, pickled mustard tubers, quick-frozen, dairy, Gao Dangbai, snack foods and other consumer goods are expected to maintain a good growth, with the support from the top down policy. The catering industry chain and related industries are expected to improve month on month.
After the adjustment since the beginning of the year, we believe that the worst moment has passed. At present, the valuation of core leading enterprises is relatively reasonable or slightly low, and the demand for food is relatively rigid. We suggest an active layout. Baijiu mainly pushed the strong, strong and strong Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The second high-end companies mainly promoted the Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and the regional high-end high-end Chinese dragon makers, and suggested that Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and sacrifice that the potential energy had already been built up. Yili, pickled mustard, Qiaqia, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer, heavy beer, etc. are mainly recommended for food. Anjing, Ligao, Haitian, Juewei, Yuanzu, Ganyuan, etc. can also be considered.
Dongguan Securities: with the joint catalysis of BC end, China’s pre processed food market has broad development space in the future
From the performance data released by Baijiu enterprises, the performance of several wine companies in 2021 has been growing steadily. Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and other companies have performed well in the core products during the Spring Festival, and the performance of Baijiu in the first quarter is worth looking forward to. In the follow-up, we can grasp individual stocks with high certainty and great performance flexibility. In terms of the target, we recommend that we must pay attention to the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) of the high-end baijiu. In the secondary high-end liquor, we can pay attention to Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , etc; Regional liquor can focus on companies with greater recovery flexibility, such as Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , etc.
Popular products sector: affected by the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places, the prosperity of prefabricated vegetables and frozen food sector is rising. In the medium and long term, with the joint catalysis of BC end, China’s pre processed food market has broad development space in the future.
From the cost side, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the drought in South America, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices of soybeans, soybean meal and corn are at a high level, and the cost pressure of some popular products remains. The market will continue to pay attention to the marginal improvement brought by the price increase of products, and grasp the high-quality sector in the industry. The aspect of the subject can focus on the aspect of the subject, which could focus on the aspect of the subject, with a focus on the aspect of the subject. It could focus on the aspect of the ‘ Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) ” \ , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) etc.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities: Baijiu consumption upgrade and head concentration trend will not change. Head brand is still the most determinant variety
In 2022, the epidemic was further repeated, and the consumption scenario was temporarily absent, which brought uncertainty to the growth of Baijiu. Despite the short term pressure, we believe that the brand will become stronger after the epidemic test. The trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading and head concentration will not change. The brand of the head is still the most determinate species. Certainty is the most important thing at the moment when certainty is the most important at the moment, and under high certainty, we’ll choose the varieties that have clear long-term growth logic and still big room for growth, among which are the ones with clear long-term growth logic and clear long-term growth logic, \ \.
In terms of popular products, the demand of some sub industries in the short term, such as beer, condiment and chain food, is affected by the epidemic. At this stage, we still focus on the varieties with determined performance, reasonable valuation and less affected by the epidemic. We should first look at the cost decline, and then look at the long-term growth. In March, the epidemic situation was repeated, and it took time for inventory digestion and price increase transmission. It is suggested to lower the expectation of Q1 statement. The inflection point of the statement is 22q2, and the inflection point of fundamentals needs to wait. At present, it is suggested that the subject matter with clear reduction of layout cost, great elasticity of price increase and attractive valuation; For the growth targets with more callback, it is suggested to pay active attention to them and make a long-term layout. Key recommendations: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer, Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) .
Anxin Securities: the logic of post wealth effect stimulating optional consumption promotes industry investment in three stages
We believe that the industry will be promoted according to the logic of first scenario recovery to drive rigid demand consumption, and then wealth effect to stimulate optional consumption. Industry investment can be divided into three stages: in-depth adjustment of target repair opportunities, recovery logic to drive the recovery of rigid demand, and wealth effect to stimulate the accelerated upgrading of high-end products or a new round of business cycle. There are still twists and turns in the industry boom in the near future, and the market game psychology is still very heavy. We believe that the bottom of the sector is established, but the process may be tortuous and upward. In the early stage of industry adjustment, the target of deep callback has repair opportunities. At present, there are still targets that belong to deep callback and continue to be recommended.
With the improvement of the epidemic situation and the improvement of economic expectations, it is still the stage of deep correction and recovery. Such targets are subject to more callback in market adjustment due to their own special reasons, such as (1) event driven, such as slow implementation of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) incentive and unclear adjustment of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) sales; (2) During the fluctuation, the market is worried about the change of prosperity. For example, the beer scene is greatly damaged, but the prosperity is not affected. The secondary high-end has a strong beta effect, and the market is worried about its expansion logic; (3) The upward cost pressure worries about the long-term competitive advantage. In case of panic, it is more necessary to look forward to the long-term space and focus on finding the subject of deep correction of valuation with strong performance certainty in the general decline. Focus on recommending Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , and other core targets.
