performance hasn't been achieved yet, "ningwang" has fallen below trillion market value
On April 20, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) opened weaker and closed at 412.56 yuan / share at noon, down 6.29%. hit a new low in this round of adjustment, and the total market value also fell below trillion yuan
On that day, another new energy leader Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) fell directly to the limit.
For the sharp decline in share prices, industry experts said that the rising prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate have continuously transmitted the pressure to the downstream.
on April 20, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) relevant people disclosed to the reporter of Shanghai Securities News that the company will prepare to release new power battery technology in the near future
upstream raw material prices soared
battery cost
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will disclose the first quarterly report of 2022 on April 28. However, after trading on April 19, there were rumors in the market that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is expected to make a profit of less than 5 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year.
According to the analysis of some researchers, if it is true, it is about 5 billion lower than previously expected. Whenever it comes to the report season, there will be many versions of rumors, and the accuracy is difficult to evaluate. Because of poor communication with the company, it is really difficult to make judgment.
The researcher analyzed that if it is true that it is less than 5 billion, there may only be one reason why it is lower than expected. The favorable price of lithium carbonate price rise is not timely. The price of lithium carbonate rises rapidly after the Spring Festival. The bulk unit price is estimated to be 100000 yuan higher than that from January to February in March 2022 The monthly output of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is about 25gwh, corresponding to 20000 tons of lithium carbonate. It is assumed that 40% - 50% of the purchase in the retail market corresponds to 8000 tons, and the corresponding cost increases by about 800-1 billion yuan.
"It's hard to comment on the rumors, but one thing is certain, that is, the surge in the price of raw materials of upstream batteries has transmitted the pressure to mainstream battery manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and will be further transmitted to electric vehicle enterprises. By analogy, consumers are likely to face another wave of price rise of new energy vehicles." Mei Songlin, an auto industry analyst, told reporters.
The sharp rise in the price of upstream battery raw materials has also triggered a game between electric vehicle enterprises and battery manufacturers.
Some insiders reported that the price increase of batteries supplied by some car enterprises began from the second quarter of 2022, such as ideal and other new forces of car making; Tesla is still negotiating with Ningde, and the focus of the game is whether to increase the price by 10% or 15%. If there is a large area of price transmission lag, it may lead to pressure on the operating data in the first quarter, especially in March.
The above researchers believe that if the relevant rumors are true and considering the impact of the epidemic in April, the probability of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022 annual performance will be reduced from 28-30 billion to 25-28 billion, mainly due to the cost pressure caused by the rising price of lithium carbonate and the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai and Ningde. The company's competitiveness and has not changed, and it is also fulfilling the logic of increasing its global share. The follow-up focus is on the breakthrough of new technologies (such as iron manganese lithium) and the further improvement of the self supply rate of lithium carbonate brought by the mining in Yichun, Jiangxi Province.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) speed up the control of raw materials
and R & D rhythm of new technologies
With the rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the pace of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) controlling upstream raw materials is also accelerating. In October 2021, Yichun era new lithium-ion battery production and manufacturing base project invested and constructed by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was officially laid in Yichun Economic Development Zone, with a phase I investment of up to 13.5 billion yuan to build a 50gwh new lithium-ion battery production and manufacturing base project.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) announced on April 15 that puqin times, a subsidiary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) holding company Guangdong Bangpu, signed a tripartite agreement with Pt anekatambang (antam) and Pt industri baterai Indonesia (IBI) to jointly build a power battery industry chain project including nickel mining and smelting, battery materials, battery manufacturing and battery recycling. According to the agreement, the total investment of the project shall not exceed US $5.968 billion.
In terms of new technology, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is also speeding up the pace. In January 2022, Shidai electric service, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) issued the brand of power exchange service - evogo and the overall solution of combined power exchange. The scheme consists of three products: power exchange block, quick exchange station and app. On April 19, evogo power exchange service was officially launched in Xiamen, which became the first Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) power exchange service application city.
It is worth noting that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is also expected to release new battery technology this month. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) relevant people disclosed to the reporter of Shanghai Securities News on April 20 that the relevant release materials are being prepared, and the specific time is uncertain.
According to the analysis of Zhang Xiang, a researcher from Northern University of technology, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) controlling the upstream must be the development trend. At present, the development speed of new energy vehicles in the world is fast, and the demand of vehicle enterprises is very strong, resulting in the imbalance between supply and demand of raw materials. Upstream production capacity is difficult to make expected planning, which leads to price instability. " Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) such enterprises have large volume and abundant funds. The advance layout of upstream raw materials can stabilize the purchase price and help control the cost of production."
For technological innovation and R & D, Zhang Xiang said frankly that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has mainly introduced sodium ion battery technology and power exchange in the past two years. Sodium ion battery has not been mass produced, and it is still the technical development direction at present. In terms of innovation, compared with Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC, honeycomb energy and other companies, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has no obvious advantages and needs to strengthen R & D.
gem refers to a new low in the year
In early trading today, the three major A-share indexes collectively opened lower, and heavyweights such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) and Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) fell sharply, dragging the gem index to a new low this year.
Plate, leisure food, Baijiu, household appliances, automobile sector strong; The agricultural sector continued to be strong; Adjustment of real estate, coal, steel, construction and gold sectors.
In addition, the "breaking tide" of new shares continued. Today, three new shares were listed and one broke at the opening, with a maximum intraday decline of more than 25%.
Performance of major A-share indexes in early trading today
As of midday closing, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 318723 points, down 0.21%; Shenzhen composite index reported 1155793 points, down 0.65%; Gem index reported 239814 points, down 2.26%.
In terms of funds, the net outflow of funds from the north for half a day was 3.661 billion yuan.
food and beverage, agriculture and software
bucking the trend
This morning, the food and beverage and agricultural sectors rose against the trend. As of midday closing, Shenwan food and beverage industry rose 1.94% as a whole, and Weiwei shares, Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Kuaijishan Shaoxing Rice Wine Co.Ltd(601579) , Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) rose by the limit.
Ranking of food and beverage industry in early trading today
Agricultural stocks have been strong for three consecutive days. As of today's noon closing, Shenwan agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry as a whole rose by 1.01%, and Yike food, Hefei Fengle Seed Co.Ltd(000713) , Gansu Dunhuang Seed Group Co.Ltd(600354) , Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) , Cnfc Overseas Fisheries Co.Ltd(000798) rose by the limit.
Looking forward to the future, Dongguan Securities said that the Shanghai index still repeated around 3200, and the volume of the two cities was sluggish, indicating a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. However, with the sustained development of the steady growth policy, it is expected to drive the market sentiment to be active. It is expected that the market is expected to shake and stabilize. We should pay attention to the rotation of the sector and the change of volume energy. In terms of operation, it is suggested to focus on the midline layout, and pay attention to the industries such as finance, food and beverage, electrical equipment, steel and coal.
Affected by the good news of the policy, software stocks also performed well this morning. As of midday closing, Shenwan computer industry rose by 1.05% as a whole, with Julong Co.Ltd(300202) , Huashi technology, Beijing Join-Cheer Software Co.Ltd(002279) , Inesa Intelligent Tech Inc(600602) , Shenzhen Infinova Limited(002528) , Servyou Software Group Co.Ltd(603171) , Hunan Copote Science Technology Co.Ltd(600476) .
Ranking of computer industry in early trading today
On the news, the 25th meeting of the Central Committee for comprehensively deepening reform held on April 19 considered and adopted the guiding opinions on strengthening the construction of digital government. The meeting pointed out that strengthening the construction of digital government is an important measure to innovate the concept and mode of government governance, which is of great significance to accelerate the transformation of government functions and build a government ruled by law, a clean government and a service-oriented government. We should take meeting people's yearning for a better life as the starting point and foothold of the construction of digital government. We should build a ubiquitous, intelligent, convenient, fair and inclusive digital service system, so that people can run less errands and more data.
Minsheng Securities said that the high-level meeting focused on the development of digital economy and pointed out the key development directions of digital government, natural resource management and financial information and innovation. In the future, the construction of relevant fields is expected to accelerate, the prosperity is expected to improve, and key enterprises are expected to continue to benefit.
On April 19, BlackRock, a global asset management giant, held an online exchange meeting. Li Wei, BlackRock's global chief investment strategist, Lu Wenjie, BlackRock's fund investment director, and Liu Yajun, fund manager of BlackRock's global emerging market equity investment team, expressed their latest views on the new market pattern and China's opportunities under global inflation.
BlackRock is one of the largest asset management groups in the world. According to the latest data, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, BlackRock's asset management scale was US $9.57 trillion (about 61 trillion yuan).
In BlackRock's view, at present, the allocation proportion of Chinese assets by global investors is still low, and BlackRock will moderately over allocate Chinese assets. In its view, some pessimistic factors have been reflected in the stock price, and there has been a turnaround in profitability and valuation. The medium and long-term trend of the Chinese market has not changed.
increase China's asset allocation
Since this year, affected by various factors, the A-share market has fluctuated repeatedly, and the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen to around 3200 points. What is the attitude of overseas investors towards Chinese assets at the current time?
Li Wei, global chief investment strategist of BlackRock think tank, said that customers farther away from China are more cautious about Chinese assets, such as the United States; European customers are more cautious about investing in China, while Asian customers will be better. "From the perspective of strategic allocation, the allocation of Chinese assets by global investors (global investors outside China) is very low, so we have reason to increase the allocation of Chinese assets, especially Chinese bonds. From the perspective of return and investment diversification, we prefer government bonds." Li Wei said.
From a policy perspective, Lu Wenjie, investment director of BlackRock fund, believes that although global inflation also has a certain impact on China, China's CPI increased by 1.5% year-on-year in March this year, which means that residents' consumption has not been greatly affected. Moreover, due to the different economic and policy cycles between China and other countries in the world, the government's stimulus policy will have a certain space under China's current inflation environment.
As a global asset management giant, how does BlackRock view the current and future performance of China's stock market?
"A lot of pessimism has been reflected in the stock price, but behind this, we see some turnaround in valuation and profitability. At the same time, we also see that some medium and long-term trends in the Chinese market, such as the development of carbon neutralization industry and the upgrading of middle-class consumption, have not changed." Said Liu Yajun, fund manager of BlackRock global emerging market equity investment team.
Liuyajun further said that the performance of China's stock market was jointly driven by valuation and profitability. From the perspective of valuation, in the past six months to one year, the factors that depress the valuation of the Chinese market have reduced the profit predictability of the whole market, or weakened everyone's confidence in profit predictability, resulting in the market value of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares hitting a new low in recent years.
"However, we have also seen some factors of valuation bottoming, such as the recent reissue of game titles in the Internet sector; the government is also actively discussing with the United States on the concept of shares. Therefore, to a certain extent, we are still confident in valuation bottoming." Liu Yajun said.
focus on three main investment lines
Looking ahead, Liu Yajun believes that there are three main lines worthy of attention in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets.
First of all, under the theme of inflation, BlackRock has arranged some upstream raw materials such as copper and aluminum, as well as Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , chemical and other fields this year. The reason is that the upstream is now very profitable. At the same time, Liu Yajun also said that he was optimistic about the global shipping sector.
Second, Liu Yajun said that under the theme of carbon neutrality, opportunities in the field of new energy can still be explored. "This main line has been divided this year. We will look for local highlights in the whole industry."
Third, under the theme of demographic dividend, there are also opportunities worthy of attention in China's growing consumption and medical demand. Among them, areas with limited influence of upstream raw materials and relatively stable demand, such as dairy and other industries, also have layout opportunities.
As the first pure foreign public fund in China, BlackRock China new vision hybrid has attracted much market attention since its establishment last year. According to the latest annual report of the fund, by the end of last year, the top five heavy positions of the fund included Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) .
For the next investment strategy, the fund manager said in the annual report that the fund will dynamically adjust the portfolio in combination with the company's financial and operating data pre disclosed in the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022, and choose the opportunity to increase the allocation of sectors and companies with large decline and high growth certainty before the increase.
According to the data of China stock market news choice, BlackRock fund has investigated many A-share listed companies since this year, including Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) , Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co.Ltd(300741) and Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) .
