Viewpoint: after four consecutive months of recovery, the leading economic indicators fell below the boom and bust line, confirming the judgment of anti pumping we mentioned earlier. In this case, the pressure of economic growth still inhibits the market. Under the support of policy support and monetary easing cycle, the market as a whole is still a process of shock bottoming in the short term, the decline of heavyweights led the gem to usher in an adjusted new low again, and the Shenzhen composite index is one step away from the new low at this stage. From the perspective and trend of index resonance, the Shanghai index still has the possibility to continue to bottom or even new. Therefore, in the stage, we should pay attention to the possibility of the overall correction of the index in the decline of the center of gravity of the index, and the strategic allocation of the middle line can still be carried out on bargain hunting, while the investors in the stage game should appropriately stay on the sidelines and wait patiently for the possible decline of the index before making a decision
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low. After the opening, they fluctuated and fell. They were close to turning red before the closing in the morning, but they turned down again in the afternoon and fell all the way. On the disk, food and beverage, beauty care and household appliances performed well, while most other sectors fell, led by the sharp decline of real estate and coal sectors, and steel, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, architectural decoration and other sectors fell by more than 3%.
So far this week, although there are only three trading days, every day is “thrilling”: on Monday, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) intraday fell by more than 8%, once approaching the limit, directly collapsing banks and financial stocks, and even under the RRR reduction, discounting the market’s originally low expectations again; On Tuesday, Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) fell by the limit, the semiconductor that had just improved was hanged, and the track stocks wilted again after a day of fire; And today, there is more than that Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) closed the limit half an hour after opening, and it was still 20cm, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) fell by more than 8%, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell by more than 7%. The heavy fall of these big guys on the gem once again led to the new low of the second round of adjustment of the gem index.
Of course, the coal and real estate sectors with strong recent performance also fell on the same day. Since then, all the performance directions of the market at this stage have basically “died prematurely”. Financial stocks began to retreat. The real estate and coal sectors have been adjusted since last Friday. Even the track stocks that have just rebounded for a day have been pushed back again.
Stocks and sectors are like this, and the index is also depressed. While adjusting the new low on the gem, the Shenzhen composite index is also one step away from adjusting the new low. Once the Shenzhen composite index reaches a new low, according to the general law of index resonance, the probability of the Shanghai index will reach the bottom again. Therefore, in the stage, although there are policy underpinnings, when the market repeatedly bottoms, the volatility is relatively large, and we still need to pay attention to the stage risks. Moreover, from today’s situation, at present, many heavyweights have a great impact on the index in the quarterly report window. Once the performance is lower than expected, it will also drag down the index, which is likely to be staged in the coming week.
Therefore, it is recommended that investors continue to wait and see and patiently wait for the end of the short-term adjustment. For strategic investors, the adjustment here is still the opportunity for bargain hunting and midline allocation, but for band investors, they still need to grasp the rhythm of the market at the time of range shock.
Finally, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the market. On the one hand, it is only a matter of time before the end of the market is ready to emerge under the increasing weight of the policy; On the other hand, with the decline of heavyweights and the drag on the index, once the heavyweights stabilize and recover, the index is likely to bottom. After all, heavyweights often determine the performance of the index.
