The investment side made efforts in advance, and infrastructure investment gradually rebounded. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to march of 22 years, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 10.5 trillion, yoy + 9.3% (the previous value was + 12.2%), and yoy + 6.6% in March alone; Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) yoy + 8.5% (previous value + 8.1%). In addition, according to the quarterly adjusted data of the National Bureau of statistics, the month on month growth rate of fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) in March 22 was 0.6%. The high growth rate of infrastructure investment is related to the centralized issuance of local government special bonds since 21h2, which is now preliminarily related to the physical workload. According to the preliminary statistics of projects supported by special bond funds issued this year, the operating rate has reached 75%. By the end of March 22, a total of 1.25 trillion yuan of special bonds had been issued, accounting for 86% of the amount issued in advance, and mainly invested in infrastructure fields such as municipal and industrial park construction, social undertakings and transportation infrastructure. Under the recent repeated epidemic and short-term pressure on real estate, infrastructure investment is expected to continue to play a role in stabilizing growth.
Monthly real estate investment turned negative year-on-year, and the market remained weak in the short term. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to march of 22 years, the national investment in real estate development was 2.8 trillion, yoy + 0.7%, yoy-2.4% in March alone; The land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises is 13.39 million square meters, yoy-41.8%, yoy-41.0% in March alone; The land transaction price was 67.2 billion, yoy-16.9%, yoy-0.9% in March alone; The cumulative sales area of commercial housing is 310 million square meters, yoy-13.8%, yoy-17.7% in March alone; The new construction area of houses is 300 million square meters, yoy-17.5%, yoy-22.2% in March alone; Housing construction area is 8.06 billion square meters, yoy + 1.0%, yoy-21.5% in March alone; The completed area of houses is 170 million square meters, yoy-11.5%, yoy-15.5% in March alone.
In addition, from the capital side, the funds paid in by real estate development enterprises from January to march of 22 years were 3.8 trillion, yoy-19.6% (the former value was – 17.7%). In terms of splitting, yoy of Chinese loans / utilization of foreign capital / self raised funds / deposit and advance collection / personal mortgage loans were – 23.5% / – 7.8% / – 4.8% / – 31.0% / – 18.8% respectively. Real estate investment data turned negative year-on-year. Affected by weak demand and limited sales collection of real estate enterprises, land acquisition and construction were affected, and the overall basic data of real estate was still weak. Considering that the central government and various ministries and commissions have frequently released stability maintenance signals over the past 22 years, the “implementation of policies for the city” has continued to play a role, and many places have reduced the purchase threshold through measures such as increasing the loan amount and reducing the down payment ratio, so as to support the release of reasonable housing demand. Under the downward pressure of real estate, the follow-up policies are expected to strengthen efforts to promote marginal improvement.
The decline in cement production narrowed and the price remained high year-on-year. From January to march of 22 years, the cumulative output of cement in China was 390 million tons, yoy-12.1%; The output in March alone was 190 million tons, yoy-5.6%. In the first quarter, the national cumulative cement output decreased year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrower than that from January to February. In March, when the steady growth measures were implemented and the market gradually entered the peak season, the demand for cement recovered. Although the monthly output decreased year-on-year due to repeated outbreaks in many places, it still maintained the second high level in the same period since 2018. We believe that in the later stage, with the effective control of the epidemic and the gradual resumption of the project, the market demand is expected to gradually pick up and accelerate the release. According to the digital cement network, as of the end of March, the average price of P.O 42.5 cement nationwide was 508 yuan / ton, up from + 14 yuan / ton last month and + 113 yuan / ton year-on-year. Considering that the current coal price is still fluctuating at a high level, the cement price center of the whole year is expected to remain high under cost pressure.
Glass demand remained resilient and prices fell in the short term. From January to march of 22 years, the national output of flat glass was 253.44 million weight boxes, yoy + 2.0%, and the output of single March was 87.22 million weight boxes, yoy + 2.2%. From January to March, the glass market maintained demand toughness. According to zhuochuang information, as of the end of March, the average price of float glass nationwide was 2059 yuan / ton, down from -395 yuan / ton last month and -220 yuan / ton year-on-year. Glass prices fell in the early stage, and in the short term, it is still dominated by digesting inventory. We believe that under the “guaranteed delivery” of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to continue to maintain; On the supply side, considering that the capacity utilization rate of the industry is at a high level, the subsequent new capacity is limited, and at present, the proportion of kiln age capacity of 8-10 years / 10-12 years / more in the production line is 13.2% / 8.3% / 5.9% respectively. Cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. We expect that the glass price throughout the year is expected to remain at the investment suggestion: at the current time, we suggest paying attention to several main lines of building materials & new materials investment. First, carbon fiber, quartz sand and glass fiber industries are selected for prosperity and performance. 1) The high prosperity of carbon fiber continues, and there will be differentiation in demand fields (wind power, CC, hydrogen energy) and links (precursor and carbon filament) in the future. It is recommended that enterprises with continuous cost reduction and precursor production capacity should be recommended, and it is recommended to pay attention to Zhongfu Shenying, Jilin Carbon Valley and Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) . 2) Roving boom is expected to continue (wind power, automobile, etc. bring strong support to demand), the price of electronic cloth has fallen to the bottom range, China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) market share and cost competitiveness have increased against the trend, and the safety margin of current market value is high; 3) The quartz sand landscape has a high bearing. Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) this year’s interpretation is the rapid increase of market share and structural upgrading, focusing on the prosperity. Although some output is affected by the epidemic in the short term, the contraction of the supply side ( Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) is the main supplier of quartz sand in China) is expected to bring greater price elasticity. Second, the marginal improvement of real estate policy, focusing on the layout of brand building materials. Since the second half of the year, the valuation and performance of brand building materials have been killed under weak demand + capital pressure + high cost.
In the absence of significant improvement in the fundamentals of real estate, the policy continues to relax expectations. The credit risk faced by the real estate chain and the pessimistic expectation of market demand have been repaired. At present, it is in a better window period of strategic allocation. The current time point is waiting for the inflection point of real estate sales data, and the sector is expected to receive a greater boost. It is recommended that Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) . Third, cement and water reducing agent are selected for the main line of steady growth. The infrastructure development force under steady growth and the marginal recovery of real estate are expected to support the cement demand to maintain a high platform. However, due to the further coordination and optimization of the core logic of cement at the supply side in the past 22 years, the scope and intensity of peak staggering this year are generally stronger than last year, and the high price center is superimposed to maintain profit toughness Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) is stable and elastic. It is recommended to Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Chinese building materials; Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) also continues to recommend water reducing agents and functional materials that are in demand and benefit from infrastructure construction. Fourth, at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass industry cycle, with the support of cost, the industry basically has no downside risk; Float glass prices stabilized and rebounded while demand boosted.
It is suggested to focus on leading enterprises Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi solar energy, Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , which have high certainty of volume increase and competitive cost.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; Policy fluctuation risk; Risk of poor capital turnover of 2B end enterprises.
