"Steady growth" is one of the core themes of the A-share market since the beginning of the year; Therefore, the real estate and infrastructure sectors performed well. It is expected that the subsequent "steady growth" market may be extended to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain; "Valuation repair and performance confirmation" is a traditional two-step process of sector Market interpretation. The real estate policy continues to be marginal loose, among which the household appliances with greater flexibility in prosperity and valuation are "kitchen electricity", "central air conditioning" and "household air conditioning".
The real estate sector under the background of "steady growth" performed well. On March 16, the joint voice policy of multiple ministries and commissions will continue to increase to help resolve real estate risks. According to statistics, CITIC Real estate industry index rose by 27.7% in the past month from March 16, 2022 to April 15, 2022; "Building materials / construction / home appliances" and other real estate chain industries increased by 10.2% / 8.9% / 7.7% respectively, far behind the real estate sector. At present, the valuation of the home appliance industry is still at a low level in the past decade (the current valuation quantile is about 33%), and the impact of adverse factors such as raw materials and epidemic situation has been fully price in Considering the consumption replenishment in the post epidemic era and the cost compression capacity of leading enterprises, it is expected that there is still room for the valuation and repair market of the follow-up household appliance industry.
Kitchen electricity and air conditioning have strong post real estate cycle attributes. Through quantitative calculation and historical review, the prosperity valuation of kitchen electricity and air conditioning is closely related to real estate - see the external report investment strategy of household appliance industry - completion and delivery, consumption upgrading and household appliance industry (2022-4-13). Among them: 1) central air conditioning, industrial and commercial market scale is closely related to fixed asset investment, while household market scale is closely related to residential sales and benefits from the improvement of household penetration, so it has relatively high elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) and Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) . 2) Large kitchen appliances have the strongest correlation with real estate. According to our calculation, the proportion of real estate to traditional kitchen appliances such as cigarette machines is close to 60%. With the restoration of real estate policy and the recovery of fundamentals, the valuation of kitchen appliances enterprises is expected to be boosted; It is suggested to pay attention to Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) and Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) etc. 3) In terms of household air conditioning, the proportion of real estate is 30% - 35%, showing obvious seasonal superposition effect. It is suggested to pay attention to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) and Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) .
There is still no ceiling in the air conditioning market for a long time, and there is great room for the expansion of large kitchen appliances. (for details, see the external report investment strategy of household appliance industry - completion and delivery, consumption upgrading and household appliance industry (2022-4-13)), in which it is estimated that there is still 30-40% upward space in the medium and long-term steady-state sales center of the traditional air conditioning industry; The penetration rate of dishwashers and steam ovens with large kitchen appliances and high ASP is at a very low level; The urban penetration rate of household central air conditioners is less than 5%, and the net sales interest rate is higher than that of traditional air conditioners. It is a new profit starting point for air conditioning enterprises.
Risk factors: raw materials rose sharply, industry competition intensified, and the demand was lower than expected.
Investment strategy: the "steady growth" market with infrastructure real estate as the flagship is still an important main line of a shares; The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain may be expected to benefit in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the household appliance sector: 1) leading enterprises of kitchen electricity and central air conditioning with high elasticity in real estate, including Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , etc. 2) The position of the industrial chain is obvious, the strategic layout of high-end and globalization is leading, and the valuation is Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) .
