Event: A-share express company disclosed the data of March 2022.
The epidemic suppressed the demand for express delivery in the short term, and the growth rate of express delivery in March was – 3.1%. In March 2022, the express industry completed 8.541 billion pieces of express business (- 3.1%). In March 2022, the total amount of social zero was 3.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.5%, and the growth rate decreased (- 10.2pp) from January to February 2022. The online retail volume of physical goods was 0.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7% over the same period in 2021. The online shopping penetration rate of physical goods was 26.0% in the current month, and the online shopping penetration rate increased by 1.6pp compared with March 2021. Affected by the epidemic, the upstream consumption was restrained in the short term.
Volume: the volume of the industry is restrained by the epidemic in the short term, and the volume of head express companies benefits from industry integration. In March, the express industry completed 8.54 billion pieces of express business, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, a decrease of 22.8pp compared with the year-on-year growth rate from January to February 2022 In terms of listed companies, Shunfeng, Yunda, Shentong and Yuantong completed 800, 158, 990 and 1.42 billion pieces respectively in March, with year-on-year growth rates of – 7.9%, 4.4%, 8.8% and 5.1% respectively; In addition to Shunfeng, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong all achieved positive growth in the number of pieces.
Shunfeng accounted for 9.4%, up 0.2pp from February 2022; The market share of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong were 18.5%, 16.6% and 11.6% respectively, which increased compared with February 2022. Under the integration of Jitu Baishi, the market share of head express company increased.
Price: the superimposed epidemic situation in the off-season suppresses the short-term demand, and the express unit price is under pressure. In March, the average unit price of national express delivery was 9.58 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 yuan (- 1.1%). In March, the average unit price of express delivery in the East, central and western regions was 9.63 yuan, 8.20 yuan and 11.87 yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 0.5%, – 4.0% and – 1.6% respectively. Compared with January February 2022, the decline in the East, central and western regions continued to narrow. The average unit prices of intra city, non local and international express delivery were 5.46 yuan, 5.41 yuan and 66.36 yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 7.7%, – 6.9% and 24.6% respectively. Affected by the epidemic, the unit price of express delivery in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai fell month on month. In Jinhua (Yiwu) area, the main grain producing area, the unit price of express delivery was 2.74 (year-on-year + 12.1%) and – 5.1% month on month.
In March, Yunda’s single ticket income was 2.59 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.3% and a month on month increase of + 10.7%; The single ticket income of Shentong was 2.56 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.8% and a month on month increase of – 1.2%; The single ticket income of Yuantong was 2.48 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.1% and a month on month increase of – 6.8%; SF’s single ticket revenue was 15.52 yuan, up + 2.2% year-on-year and + 0.5% month on month.
Concentration: in March 2022, CR8 of express industry was 84.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4pp and a month on month decrease of 0.4pp.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic has been suppressed in the short term, the demand for express delivery is superimposed on the off-season of the industry, and the ASP of express terminal is under pressure. We are optimistic about the demand replenishment after the epidemic. At the same time, the steady-state competition pattern under the new regulatory cycle gives the express industry a better cost transmission ability, and the performance of head express enterprises can be repaired. The performance of Yuantong 22m1-m2 shows that the net profit attributable to the parent company is 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 186.4%; The net profit of 21q4 Zhongtong single ticket was 0.27 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3 cents (+ 14.3%) and a month on month increase of 7 cents, which verified the profit recovery of express delivery enterprises under the steady-state competition pattern, the short-term inhibition of demand in the epidemic and off-season will be made up after the epidemic, the valuation reconstruction under the catalysis of supervision will continue, and the industry will change from the valuation system under muscle (capital) competition to the valuation system under business competition.
Recommended target: continue to focus on the profit / valuation repair resonance of franchised express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) : the management team is stable, the share priority strategy is strong, the level of fine management is outstanding, the profit elasticity in the industry repair stage is the largest, and the non net profit deducted by Q3 is 320 million yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, realizing positive growth. In March, ASP increased both month on month, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.3% and a month on month increase of + 10.7% Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) : the performance express 22m1-m2 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 550 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 186.4%. In March, ASP increased in the same ring, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.1%. Zhongtong express: absolute dragon one, with the strongest scale effect, has a strong and balanced franchise network, abundant production capacity and cash reserves. The net profit of 21q4 single ticket is 0.27 yuan, an increase of 3 cents (+ 14.3%) year-on-year, an increase of 7 cents month on month, and the market share has increased to 20.1% month on month. The cost control is significant, and it is still flat year-on-year under the influence of high oil prices, showing the leading business dominance.
Risk tip: the growth rate of online shopping is declining, franchisees control risks, and labor costs are rising sharply.
