Petrochemical products with the top five price increases this week: natural gas Henry hub futures, 16.28%; WTI futures, 8.84%; Brent futures, 8.68%; Naphtha: CFR Japan, 8.24%; Propane (CIF frozen price in East China), 6.85%.
Petrochemical products with the top five price declines this week: China LNG (North China Yigao), – 9.09%; C4 feed gas (Qilu Petrochemical), – 6.82%; Mixed aromatics (South China), – 6.25%; Alkylated gasoline (Binzhou Dayou), – 5.48%; Butadiene (East China), – 5.37%.
Petrochemical products with the top five price difference increases this week: pet (semi gloss) – raw materials, 28.92%; Ethylene glycol ethylene, 13.72%; Pet, raw material (11.45%); EO ethylene, 10.63%; Alkylated oil – C4, 7.14%.
Petrochemical products with the top five price difference declines this week: propylene propane, – 44.2%; Ethylene naphtha, – 18.77%; PTA-PX，-15.77%； Po propylene, – 10.92%; PX naphtha, – 10.38%.
The three major institutions released the monthly report of crude oil in March 2022, and IEA and OPEC lowered the forecast of global demand increment in 2022.
IEA released the OMR report in April 2022. In terms of demand, it is expected that the global oil demand will decrease by 260000 barrels / day to 99.4 million barrels / day in 2022, an increase of 1.9 million barrels / day compared with 2021. In terms of supply, driven by non OPEC + countries, the global oil supply increased by 450000 barrels / day to 99.1 million barrels / day in March. Russian oil production is expected to decrease by 1.5 million barrels per day by April.
OPEC released the momr report in April 2022. In terms of demand, the global oil demand in 2021 increased by 5.7 million barrels / day year-on-year, and the demand growth decreased slightly by 30000 barrels / day; Non OECD countries increased by 3.07 million barrels per day, while OECD countries increased by 2.62 million barrels per day. It is estimated that the global oil demand in 2022 will increase by 480000 barrels per day to 3.67 million barrels per day compared with 4.15 million barrels per day in March. OECD countries and non OECD countries will increase by 1.86 million barrels per day and 1.81 million barrels per day respectively. In terms of supply, it is estimated that the oil supply increment of non OPEC countries in 2021 will be 590000 barrels / day, 10000 barrels / day lower than the predicted value of the previous month. It is estimated that the oil supply increment of non OPEC countries in 2022 will increase from 320000 barrels per day last month to 2.7 million barrels per day, mainly due to the reduction of Russian supply. In 2021, the output of NGLS in OPEC countries will increase by 100000 barrels / day year-on-year, reaching an average of 5.14 million barrels / day.
In 2022, the output of NGLS in OPEC countries will increase by 130000 barrels / day year-on-year, reaching an average of 5.27 million barrels / day. In March 2022, OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 57000 barrels per day month on month, with an average of 28.557 million barrels per day.
The EIA released the steo report in April 2022. It is estimated that the annual crude oil output of the United States in 2022 will be 12.01 million barrels / day, and the output is expected to increase by 940000 barrels / day to 12.95 million barrels / day in 2023.
It is estimated that the net export of liquid fuel in 2021 will be 160000 barrels / day, which is the same as the predicted value of net import last month; In 2022, the net export will be 610000 barrels per day, a decrease of 710000 barrels per day compared with the predicted value of net import last month; The net export in 2023 is 950000 barrels / day, which is 10000 barrels / day lower than the predicted value of net import last month.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are deadlocked again, and the hidden worries on the supply side dominate the rise of international crude oil prices. On the supply side, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse. Russia’s crude oil production has been reduced due to sanctions, and OPEC warned that it is impossible to make up for Russia’s loss of 7million barrels of oil and other liquid energy exports per day, resulting in a resurgence of supply side shortages. On the demand side, although the IEA lowered the global growth expectation and the epidemic repeatedly or to some extent affected the demand expectation, the current market sentiment is still dominated by the supply side shortage, and the international crude oil price continues to rise.
As of April 16, 2022, the settlement price of WTI futures this week increased by 8.8% to USD 106.95/barrel compared with last week; The settlement price of Brent futures rose 8.7% to US $111.70 / barrel compared with last week.
As of April 8, 2022, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 9.382 million barrels to 422 million barrels month on month compared with last week; US strategic crude oil inventory decreased by 3.899 million barrels to 561 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 318000 barrels and distillate oil inventory decreased by 2.902 million barrels; In the week of April 1, 2022, the crude oil output of the United States was 11.8 million barrels per day, unchanged month on month; The average daily net processing volume of American refineries in the week was 15.523 million barrels, a month on month decrease of 425000 barrels / day, and the gross processing volume was 16.148 million barrels / day, a month on month decrease of 381000 barrels / day. The operating rate of refineries was 90.0%, a month on month decrease of 2.5 PCTs Baker Hughes oil service data show that as of the week of April 15, 2022, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased by 2 to 548 from last week.
Demand contracted significantly and LNG prices fell month on month. On the supply side, according to the data of Longzhong information, China’s LNG output this week was 392600 tons (547.2 million m3), down 2.61% month on month; China’s nine terminals received 13 LNG carriers, a decrease of 4 on a month on month basis, and the arrival volume was 841300 tons, a decrease of 30.7% on a month on month basis.
On the demand side, China’s total LNG demand this week was 401100 tons, a month on month decrease of 58500 tons (- 12.73%).
From the cost side, the transaction price of Northwest gas source this week was 4.32-4.45 yuan / m3, which was flat compared with last week, and the high-end price fell by 0.07 yuan / m3. Overall, the demand side contracted significantly this week, leading the price trend of products. As of April 15, the ex factory price of LNG in China was 6500 yuan / ton, down 650 yuan / ton from last week.
The price of PX rose and the price difference of pta-px narrowed. In terms of supply, according to the data of China National fiber network on April 15, 2022, the 1 million / year unit of ChuanHua energy investment failed to restart on April 13 and continued to shut down; Yisheng Ningbo 32 million T / a unit was shut down for maintenance on April 13; Yishanhua 12.25 million T / a unit was shut down for maintenance on April 14, temporarily for 3-5 days The Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) 12 million T / a unit will be overhauled from March 25, 2022. It was originally planned to restart on April 11, but now it is postponed to April 25; The 1.2 million T / a unit of hailun Petrochemical is expected to be overhauled for 15 days in mid May The Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) 122 million ton unit is expected to be overhauled from April 15; At present, 80% of the 3.6 million T / a unit of Yisheng new material is in operation, and it is planned to stop at the end of April; The 3.75 million T / a unit of yishanhua is planned to be overhauled in mid May.
The total capacity of PTA industry this week was 73.185 million tons. This week, PTA maintenance capacity is about 17.046 million tons, long-term shutdown capacity is 5.25 million tons, the actual production capacity is 50.889 million tons, and the operating rate of production capacity is 76.43%. As of April 15, China National fiber network data showed that the inventory of PTA circulation link was 1.832 million tons, an increase of 7000 tons compared with last week. The price of PX (imported CFR) was US $1197 / ton, up US $42 / ton from last week. PTA (East China) price is 6200 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton from last week; The price difference of pta-px (imported CFR) was 539 yuan / ton, narrowed by 101 yuan / ton compared with last week
Both supply and demand have declined, and the price difference of polyester filament is relatively stable. Under the background of the epidemic, the supply and demand of polyester filament contracted at both ends this week: in terms of supply, according to the data of Baichuan information, the output of polyester filament this week was 671600 tons, a decrease of 4.55% month on month; In terms of demand, according to the data of Baichuan information, as of April 14, the comprehensive startup rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 49.5%, down 14 PCTs from last week As of April 15, 2022, the inventories of DTY, POY and FDY in polyester factory were 34, 30 and 33 days respectively, with a month on month increase of + 1 day. As of April 15, 2022, the price of DTY has decreased by 50 yuan / ton to 9350 yuan / ton, the price of FDY has increased by 100 yuan / ton to 8400 yuan / ton, and the price of POY has decreased by 40 yuan / ton to 7760 yuan / ton. The price difference between POY and raw materials narrowed by 81 yuan / ton to 786 yuan / ton, the price difference between DTY and raw materials narrowed by 91 yuan / ton to 2376 yuan / ton, and the price difference between FDY and raw materials expanded by 59 yuan / ton to 1426 yuan / ton.
Both supply and demand contracted, and the price difference of acrylic acid remained stable on the whole. In terms of supply, according to Longzhong information, the operating rate of China’s acrylic acid industry this week was 79.25%. Fell 1.81 PCTs month on month In terms of demand, according to Longzhong information, the operating rate of butyl acrylate industry fell 2.24 PCTs to 68.27% month on month this week. On the whole, under the influence of the epidemic, the start-up at both ends of supply and demand declined, and the product price difference remained relatively stable. As of April 15, the price of acrylic acid was 12300 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week; The price difference between acrylic acid and propylene was 6234 yuan / ton, up 54 yuan / ton from last week.
The supply declined, the demand improved, and the price difference of butyl acrylate increased slightly. On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the operating rate of butyl acrylate industry fell 2.24 PCTs to 68.27% month on month. Demand side, according to long Chung information, acrylic lotion this week, the operating rate of 30%, the ratio is flat. The operating rate of the tape master coil industry was 52.92%, up 0.28 PCTs from last week As of April 15, the price of butyl acrylate was 13400 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from last week; The price difference between butyl acrylate and acrylic acid was 6020 yuan / ton, expanding by 100 yuan / ton month on month.
Supply declined, demand increased, and maleic anhydride price difference widened. In terms of supply, according to Longzhong information, the operating rate of maleic anhydride benzene process in China this week was 56.52%, down 10.15 PCTs month on month, and the operating rate of butane process was 79.90%, down 5.39 PCTs month on month In terms of demand, according to Longzhong information, the operating load of downstream unsaturated resin was 23%, up 3 PCTs month on month In terms of cost, as of April 15, the price of C4 feed gas (Qilu Petrochemical) was 6150 yuan / ton, down 450 yuan / ton from last week. Under the comprehensive effect, although the price of maleic anhydride decreased this week, the price difference expanded. As of April 15, the price of maleic anhydride was 10150 yuan / ton, a decrease of 300 yuan / ton compared with last week; The price difference between maleic anhydride and C4 was 3262 yuan / ton, an increase of 204 yuan / ton compared with last week.
The start-up fell and the price of butanone rose slightly. On the supply side, affected by the maintenance of Fushun Petrochemical plant this week, the supply of butanone in China fell: the output of the week was 8600 tons, down 1.65% month on month; The operating rate was 65%, down 1.09 PCTs month on month Meanwhile, Ningbo Haiyue plant is expected to be shut down for maintenance next week, and the supply side is still expected to shrink. On the demand side, the downstream coating, adhesive and other industries remained relatively stable. As of April 15, the price of butanone ( Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co.Ltd(002408) East China) was 15000 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from last week.
Limited demand and narrowed adipic acid price difference. In terms of supply, according to the consulting data of Ruijie, the operating load of China’s adipic acid industry fell to about 60% this week, of which Huafeng plant took turns to remove the scar; Taihua and Jiangsu Haili are still under maintenance; A production line in Tangshan Zhonghao stopped for a short time during the week, and the supply has been reduced on the whole. Downstream, affected by the epidemic, the start-up of TPU, slurry and sole stock solution industry is still relatively low, the demand is weak, and the leading price difference continues to narrow. As of April 15, the price of adipic acid (East China) was 12100 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton from last week; Adipic acid pure benzene nitric acid price difference is 3417 yuan / ton, a decrease of 108 yuan / ton compared with last week.
Focus on the company: from the perspective of product raw material price difference, during q1-q3 in 2021, PX crude oil and pta-px price difference are still in the bottom range, while polyester filament raw material and price difference have been repaired compared with 2020, and the profits of private refining enterprises and polyester filament enterprises have increased significantly year-on-year. In the Q3 single quarter of 2021, due to the slight drop in the price difference of polyester filament products, the performance contracted slightly, but still maintained a high growth rate year-on-year. The reason is that the scale and process advantages of newly-built private refining are obvious, the cost advantage is prominent, and the bottom area of the industry still recorded excess profits. With the improvement of demand in the future, it is expected that the profits of products such as refined oil, PX, PTA and polyester filament will be repaired from the bottom, and Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) and other private refining enterprises are recommended.
Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) actively extends the industrial chain to the upstream, participates in the 40 million T / a refining and chemical integration project of Zhejiang Petrochemical, and has been fully put into operation, forming the whole industrial chain pattern of refining PX PTA polyester filament. Product diversification helps the company resist the risk of periodic fluctuation, and the cost advantage of refining and chemical project ensures the strong profitability of the company. At the same time, the second phase of the project put into operation in January 2022 has also further improved the proportion of chemicals and product added value, and is expected to further increase the company’s investment income in the future. As a leading enterprise of polyester filament, the production and sales volume of polyester filament has ranked first in China for many years. At present, the production capacity of Yangkou 5 million tons of PTA and 2.4 million tons of polyester filament, Shuyang 2.4 million tons of polyester filament (staple fiber) and Fujian Zhangzhou 2 million tons of polyester fiber are under steady construction and promotion. The production and sales volume of the company is expected to maintain growth in the future.
Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , the company is a leading enterprise in the PTA industry, with a PTA production capacity of about 16 million tons / year and an equity production capacity of about 7.55 million tons / year. At present, there are also 3 million tons / year PTA production capacity of Yisheng new materials (equity production capacity of 1.5 million tons / year) under continuous construction. With the full commissioning of the 40 million T / a refining and chemical integration phase I project of Zhejiang Petrochemical at the end of 2019, the company has opened up the whole industrial chain of crude oil fuel oil naphtha PX PTA polyester. Zhejiang Petrochemical refining and chemical project has obvious scale, supporting advantages and rich product types. It not only has strong profitability, but also helps the company resist the risk of periodic fluctuation.
At present, Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II project has been fully completed and put into operation, which will help Zhejiang Petrochemical products to further improve the added value, production and marketing scale, and further enhance its profitability. At present, most of the price differences of main products of refining and chemical projects still have room for repair. In the future, with the further repair of downstream demand, the profit of refining and chemical projects is expected to improve accordingly.
Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , the company is a leading enterprise in PTA industry. At present, it has a PTA production capacity of 11.6 million tons and is the largest PTA factory in the world. The company has a high degree of upstream and downstream integration, and has formed a whole industry chain pattern of “crude oil aromatics, olefin PTA, ethylene glycol polyester new materials”. Upstream, the company has 20 million tons of refining and chemical integration project, supporting 4.5 million tons of PX capacity; In the downstream, by the end of 2021, the company has a production capacity of 2.43 million tons of polyester civil filament, 400000 tons of industrial filament, 240000 tons of engineering plastics, 385000 tons of polyester film and 33000 tons of PBAT. The company has a wide range of products. At present, relying on the upstream refining and chemical projects, the company has abundant raw material reserves and stepped up the layout of downstream new material projects: on January 26, 2022, the company officially announced that it plans to build a high-performance polyester project with an annual output of 2.6 million tons and a high-performance resin and new material project with an annual output of 1.6 million tons; On December 26, 2021, signed a contract with Zhipu of Japan and Qingdao Zhongke Hualian to introduce 12 wet lithium battery diaphragm production lines in Suzhou, with a production capacity of 1.6 billion m2; On June 24, 2021, three polyester new material projects and supporting chemical projects with a total of 2.75 million tons were announced successively. Together with the controlling shareholders and affiliated enterprises, the 10 billion level employee stock ownership plan will not only bind the interests of employees and improve the incentive system, but also help the efficient promotion of projects under construction and demonstrate development confidence. In the future, with the repair of refining and chemical product demand and the continuous expansion of its own new material platform, the company’s profitability is expected to continue to improve.
Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , the company is a comprehensive modern polyurethane leading enterprise with a leading position in the fields of spandex, adipic acid and sole stock solution in China. At present, the production capacity of the company’s three main products is the first in China, which has a large scale advantage; The company’s production cost has been reduced year by year by relying on the investment of top materials and technological transformation projects, and the company’s energy consumption has been significantly reduced year by year; The industrial chain of “adipic acid polyester polyol sole stock solution” can flexibly adjust the proportion of production and marketing, restrain fluctuations and improve the company’s comprehensive profitability, which has the advantage of integration. At present, the company’s Chongqing base “100000 t / a differentiated spandex project” phase II 50000 T / a production capacity has entered the commissioning stage; The remaining capacity of the “1.15 million T / a adipic acid project” and the “300000 t / a differentiated spandex project” are also under steady construction and put into operation. We expect that the company’s competitive advantage will be more obvious in the future.
Satellite chemical is a leading enterprise in China’s acrylic acid and ester industry, with a high degree of industrial chain integration. Currently, the upstream of the company’s C3 industrial chain has 900000 T / a PDH capacity, and the downstream has 660000 T / a acrylic acid and 750000 T / a acrylate capacity, 450000 T / a polypropylene capacity, 150000 T / a sap capacity and 220000 T / a hydrogen peroxide capacity. With the successful commissioning of the first phase of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Petrochemical olefin comprehensive utilization project on May 20, 2021, the company’s products were officially expanded to the C2 industrial chain. At present, the company has gradually formed “propylene acrylic acid and ester polymer lotion /SAP” and “ethylene -PE/EO/MEG” double industry chain pattern. In addition, the projects with an annual output of 350000 tons of polypropylene and 250000 tons of hydrogen peroxide were successfully promoted Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Petrochemical olefin utilization project phase II has entered the installation stage, and it is expected to be put into trial production in the middle of 2022; An agreement has been signed with skgc of South Korea to jointly build a 40000 t / a EAA project; In March 2021, a new material and energy integration project was signed with the Management Committee of Dushan Port Economic Development Zone, including 800000 T / a PDH, 800000 T / a butyl octanol and 120000 T / a neopentyl glycol capacity; On December 30, 2021, it was announced to invest 15 billion yuan to build a new green chemical new material industrial park project. The first phase of 100000 t / a ethanolamine plant, 400000 T / a polystyrene plant and 150000 T / a battery grade carbonate plant are planned to be completed and put into trial production in the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2022 respectively. Generally speaking, the company has abundant reserves of future projects, steady progress, clear strategy and considerable growth potential.
Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , the company is a leading differentiated fiber manufacturer in China. At present, it has a production capacity of 2.6 million T / a polyester filament and 3.9 million T / a PTA. At present, the company has many new production capacity / projects under construction / promotion: in terms of upstream refining and chemical industry, Shenghong refining and chemical industry’s 16 million T / a refining and chemical integration project, atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit, etc. have been successfully handed over, and the crude oil quota has been approved. After the completion of the project, the improvement of production and sales volume will bring significant growth to the company’s performance, promote the company to form the advantage of the whole industrial chain of refining PX PTA polyester filament, and help the company overcome cyclical fluctuations; In terms of new energy and new materials, there are currently propane industrial chain projects and EO capacity expansion and reconstruction projects under construction in Sri Lanka, Hongke new material degradable materials (phase I) is under construction, and the EVA project with a total scale of 700000 tons / year is under planning; In terms of polyester chemical fiber, the company currently has a total differentiated fiber capacity of 2.45 million tons / year under construction / planned to be built (including 250000 tons / year recycled fiber capacity). Overall, the company’s industrial chain integration is expected to continue to improve, the industrial chain territory is expected to continue to expand, the synergy between various projects is expected to continue to enhance, and the company’s comprehensive profitability and risk resistance ability are expected to continue to improve.
Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , the company is one of the leading enterprises in China’s polyester filament industry. The company focuses on “two continents and two lakes”
The base and the 14th five year plan of “two 10 million tons” are advancing steadily and expanding the scale of production and marketing. At its forefront, “px-pta-polyester filament” actively carries out industrial chain integration layout: the company currently has PTA production capacity of 5 million tons / year, polyester filament production capacity of 6.3 million tons / year, polyester staple fiber production capacity of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons / year, Dushan Port 4 million tons of PTA and 2.1 million tons of differentiated and functional fiber projects, Zhongyou chemical fiber annual output of 2 million tons of functional flexible customized staple fiber 1 million tons of functional differentiated fiber, 300000 tons of polyester film new material project and 2.7 million tons of polyester new material integration project are under planning / construction, and there is considerable growth space in the future. With the planned projects gradually put into operation, the company’s industrial chain integration, large-scale and low-cost advantages are expected to further appear and enhance the profitability of the company.
Risk tip: the risk of macroeconomic downturn, the risk that the demand for chemical products is less than expected, and the risk of sharp decline in international oil prices.
