Event: Recently, China Electricity Council released the power consumption from January to March 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released the energy production from January to March, and the National Bureau of statistics released the PMI index announcement in March.
From January to March 2022, the total electricity demand of the whole society was 2042.3 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% and a compound growth rate of 14% in two years. According to the data of China electricity Union, by industry, the power consumption of the primary industry was 24.1 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; The power consumption of the secondary industry was 1321.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. From January to March, the national industrial power consumption was 1298 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 355.1 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 341.7 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. In terms of provinces, Tibet, Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei and Hainan ranked among the top five, with growth rates of 21.2%, 12.7%, 11.7%, 11.5% and 10.5% respectively. The growth rate of power consumption of the whole society in the remaining 12 provinces exceeded the national average. In terms of regions, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the East, middle, West and northeast regions was 925, 3971, 600.4 and 119.9 billion kwh respectively, with growth rates of 4.8%, 9.1%, 3.1% and 3.6% respectively.
Affected by the suspension of the epidemic and the rise of temperature, the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society slowed down in March, with a total of 694.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. According to the data of the national energy administration, by industry, the power consumption of the primary industry was 7.8 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 479 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 106.3 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 101.3 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. In terms of regions, the year-on-year growth rates of power consumption in the East, middle, West and Northeast were 2.2%, 6.0%, 4.7% and 0.9% respectively, slower than that from January to February.
In March, the comprehensive PMI output index was 48.8%, down 2.4% month on month, and the prosperity level of enterprise production and operation decreased. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the PMI of China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index in March was 49.5%, down 0.7% month on month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat; The non manufacturing business activity index was 48.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity of the non manufacturing industry fell to the contraction range. By industry, the construction business activity index was 58.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of the service industry was 46.7%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of industry conditions, the business activity index of telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, insurance and other industries is in the higher boom range of more than 55.0%; The business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, real estate, leasing and business services, resident services, culture, sports and entertainment industries is lower than the critical point. The three indexes are lower than the critical point, indicating that the overall level of China’s economic prosperity has declined. The impact of the epidemic on production, import and export trade and the rise in commodity prices have put pressure on China’s economy.
From January to March 2022, the national power generation was 1992.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; In March, the power generation was 670.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in March, thermal power changed from up to down, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. The growth rate of nuclear power slowed down, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The growth rate of hydropower, wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation accelerated in varying degrees or changed from down to up, with a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, 23.8% and 16.8% respectively.
Investment suggestion: the rise of electricity price in the market is superimposed on the limited rise and fall of coal price as a whole, the profit stability of thermal power is enhanced, and the performance is expected to rebound this year. Good cash flow will help enterprises quickly transform and develop new energy. Recommended targets: Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (a + H), related targets: China Resources Power (H), Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) . The integration of water, scenery and renewable energy will become an important driving force for new energy development and is expected to bring the second growth curve to hydropower enterprises. Recommended targets: China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) . Under the goal of “double carbon”, the new energy industry has broad development prospects, and high-quality enterprises will expand rapidly. Recommended targets: Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , related targets: China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power. After the price difference between peak and valley is widened, the pumping and storage operators are expected to obtain excess returns through the spot market. The relevant subject matter: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) (after the reorganization is completed). After the implementation of the time-sharing mechanism, the economy of energy storage will be significantly improved, and the market scale is expected to expand. The relevant targets: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) .
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations, the improvement of the epidemic situation is less than expected, the rise of coal prices is more than expected, the demand for electricity is declining, and environmental protection policy risks.
