Recommended targets this week: Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) .
Latest industry view: the electricity price in the new energy market is under pressure, and all localities are expected to introduce policies to protect it. The electricity price in the new energy market is under pressure, and the binding transaction with water and fire power supply is conducive to improving the project electricity price. Since last year, the state has issued a number of policies to encourage new energy to enter the power market for trading. The reason is that the proportion of wind power will continue to increase and gradually become the main power supply. In order to continue to deepen the transformation of power to energy, it is necessary to enter the power market for trading. However, due to the characteristics that the output of wind power is not adjustable and the output of the same power supply in the same region is highly consistent with that in the same region, the increase of the installed scale and proportion of new energy will weaken its market competitiveness and produce self eating effect. If the matching degree between the regional wind and solar output curve and the demand curve is poor, the electricity price in the new energy market will be significantly under pressure. For example, Shanxi Province’s new energy power generation output hit a record high on March 4, reaching 22.16 million KW, accounting for 61.3% of the province’s power generation output at that time. The power supply was significantly higher than the demand, resulting in the spot price of 0 yuan for 17 hours. We believe that in the future, in areas with abundant scenery resources and relatively small power demand, the electricity price in the new energy market will be significantly reduced compared with that in the coal electricity market. The use of scenery and hydro thermal power with peak shaving attribute for bundling transaction, stabilizing the output curve and better fitting the demand curve will help to improve the electricity price of new energy projects.
Regions with high proportion of wind and solar power are expected to introduce policies to protect the electricity price in the new energy market, so as to stabilize investors’ expectations and encourage the development of new energy. On April 11, the development and Reform Commission of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region issued a notice on the plan for improving the price mechanism of new energy in our region. The plan proposes to bring all the power generation of new energy parity projects put into operation in Xinjiang from 2021 into the power market in order to promote reasonable bidding and market stability, based on the fact that the average price of electricity market-oriented transactions in Xinjiang is lower than the benchmark coal price level (0.25 yuan / kWh), The target on grid price is 0.262 yuan / kWh, and the differential price support mechanism is proposed. The price = actual transaction price + 0.262 yuan / kWh – max (actual transaction price, average market price), that is, when the actual transaction price of new energy is less than the average market price 0.262 yuan / kWh, the government will give the difference between 0.262 yuan / kWh and the average market price as a subsidy; When the average market price the actual transaction price of new energy 0.262 yuan / kWh, the price of new energy will directly increase to 0.262 yuan / kWh. When the average market price reaches or exceeds 0.262 yuan / kWh, no electricity price support will be given. The mechanism introduced this time protects the electricity price in the new energy market and ensures the income of affordable scenery projects to a certain extent. We believe that in the future, similar policies are expected to be issued in areas with high installed capacity but relatively small power demand (such as the three northern regions) to protect the electricity price in the new energy market, so as to stabilize the expectations of new energy investors, facilitate their investment decisions and encourage the development of new energy.
Green power, green card system and carbon trading market are expected to continue to improve, giving new energy and environmental rights a stable premium. Due to the characteristics of power supply, new energy projects will be in a disadvantageous position in the competition of power market, and the value of their environmental attributes has not been well reflected. At present, green electricity and green certificates are voluntary transactions, and the transaction scale is relatively small. We believe that relevant policies may be issued in the future to expand the transaction scope and scale of green electricity, green certificates and carbon markets, and give a stable premium to new energy and environmental rights and interests.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, repeated epidemics, falling electricity prices and higher fuel costs than expected.
The growth rate of installed capacity was lower than expected.
