The Bureau of statistics released the retail sales data of social consumer goods in March. In March, the social zero fell by 3.5% year-on-year, and the optional consumption fell significantly. The declines of gold and silver jewelry, cosmetics, shoes, clothing and knitwear were 17.9%, 6.3% and 12.7% respectively.
By category: in March, the consumption of beauty, jewelry, shoes, clothing and knitwear decreased significantly. In March, the retail sales of cosmetics reached 34.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%. The retail sales of shoes and clothing knitwear reached 96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. Retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry reached 20.5 billion yuan, down 17.9% year-on-year. The reason is that affected by the epidemic situation, the closure and control of the epidemic situation at the offline channel end has stopped the operation of some stores and damaged the sales. At the same time, strict epidemic prevention is carried out in many places, closed management is carried out in Shenzhen and Shanghai, production and living materials are given priority in logistics transportation, express killing and some roads are blocked, and the logistics is blocked.
In terms of months: the total zero amount of Q1 society has increased positively, among which the jewelry industry had a high boom from January to February, the growth rate of cosmetics increased slightly, and the textile of shoes and clothing decreased slightly; It began to decline in March. From January to March, the cumulative value of social zero achieved a positive growth of 3.3% year-on-year. The jewelry industry experienced a high boom from January to February, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.5%. It fell in March, and Q1 achieved a positive growth of 7.6%. Cosmetics grew 7% from January to February, fell 6.3% in March, and the overall growth rate of Q1 was 1.8%. The growth rate of shoes and clothing textile from January to February was 4.8%, which fell by 12.7% in March, and the overall growth rate of Q1 fell by 0.9%.
From the perspective of sub channels, the offline decline is obvious. From January to February this year, the retail sales of 100 key large retail enterprises in China decreased by 0.9% year-on-year. Q1 online retail sales of physical goods reached 2525.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8%, accounting for 23.2% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods; Among them, food, clothing and consumer goods increased by 13.5%, 0.9% and 10.6% respectively. In terms of online channels, the growth differentiation of different platforms is obvious. Taobao and Jingdong’s traditional platform are affected by new channels, and the flow is larger. The growth rate is slowing down because of the high base number. The platform is a new channel with low base. Tiktok brand continues to grow at a high speed, the growth of cosmetics brands is slowing down, the brand growth rate of sports brands keeps increasing, the growth of casual wear is good, and the brands of gold and jewellery continue to grow at a high speed.
Investment suggestion: the short-term impact of the epidemic is obvious, and the performance is under pressure. Choose companies with brand strength, product strength and channel strength in the medium and long term. Cosmetics: value sensitive skin care leader Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , mostly for smooth reform Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , efficient operation & multi category expansion Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , strong raw material development ability & radical marketing Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) . Textile and clothing: brand sales are under pressure, but the overall inventory level is healthy, the channel structure is continuously optimized, and the operation risk is controllable. It is suggested to pay attention to Li Ning and Bosideng; The valuation of textile manufacturing sector is low and there are sufficient orders on hand. It is recommended that Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) , Wuhu Fuchun Dye And Weave Co.Ltd(605189) , Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) . Jewellery:
Throughout the year, gold consumption demand was strong and sustainable. We paid attention to Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , which had greater flexibility in opening stores, and were optimistic about Chow Tai Fook, a leader in Hong Kong stocks with strong certainty for a long time.
Risk tip: the epidemic may lead to consumption growth not meeting expectations; The risk that the traffic cost increases, the marketing cost increases, and the profit growth does not meet the expectation; Reduce the risk of non reduction; Risk of downward movement of valuation center.
