Recently, new shares have made a comeback after breaking the tide, and the risk of “playing new” has increased. Some investors have changed from “closing their eyes to playing new” to “flinching away”. There has been an increase in the proportion of abandoned purchases and a decrease in the number of participating households. In the view of the industry, although the normalization of new share issuance is a normal phenomenon of market-oriented pricing under the registration system, the further optimization of IPO pricing mechanism and placement system is also a due meaning.
According to the data of China stock market news choice, as of April 18, a total of 99 new shares have been listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Beijing stock exchange this year, of which 27 have been broken on the first day of listing, accounting for more than 27%, all of which are registered new shares.
On a monthly basis, a total of 32 new shares were listed in January, and 7 were broken, with a breaking ratio of 21.88%; In February, a total of 17 new shares were listed, and only one was broken, with a breaking ratio of 5.88%, showing a relatively “strong” performance; In March, a total of 37 new shares were listed, and 12 were broken, with a breaking ratio of 32.43%; As of April 18, 7 of the 13 new shares listed in April had broken, with a breaking ratio of more than 50%. It can be seen that the breaking degree of new shares has accelerated in the past two months.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) analysis shows that the current IPO break is due to both the change of issuance rules and the recent market downturn, which is mainly attributed to three aspects: first, the change of inquiry rules. With the elimination ratio of the highest quotation adjusted from “no less than 10%” to “no more than 3%”, and breaking through the original limit of “lower of four values”, the IPO issue price has increased compared with the previous one; Second, “scarcity” decreased. Since the implementation of the registration system, the increase in the number of new shares issued has led to the decline in the “scarcity” of new shares, and investors have more opportunities to choose new shares, which will also have a certain impact on the stock price trend of new shares; Third, the market downturn. The recent stock market trend is relatively sluggish, and the pressure to sell new shares on the first day of listing will also increase.
The impact of successive breaking of new shares began to extend to the front end of the market. Recently, the proportion of online investors abandoning the purchase of many new shares has increased. On April 17, wechat disclosed the issuance results. Online investors gave up the subscription of 3.3815 million shares, with a purchase amount of 778 million yuan, accounting for 13.38% of the total issuance.
From the perspective of the number of new players online, there have been varying degrees of “shrinkage” on the science and innovation board, gem and motherboard. According to the data of China stock market news choice, since March, the average number of effective subscriptions on the science and Innovation Board online has been 4.31 million, a decrease of nearly 700000 compared with the average number of subscriptions of 5 million in the first two months of this year; The average number of subscription households on the gem in the first two months of this year was 12.55 million, which has dropped to 11.64 million since March, a decrease of nearly 1 million; On the main board, the average number of subscribers since March was 12.98 million, down more than 1 million from 14 million in the previous two months.
Wu Kaida, deputy director of deppon Securities Research Institute and chief strategic analyst, told reporters: “the normalization of new share issuance is a normal phenomenon of market-oriented pricing under the registration system. In the long run, new income will still be an important source of income enhancement for both institutional investors and individual investors.”
Specific to institutional investors applying for offline purchase, after the frequent breaking of new shares, the result of spontaneous correction is to reduce the inquiry. After the integration of primary and secondary pricing, offline investors will pay attention to the fundamental research of new shares, and the follow-up research ability will replace the shortlisted rate as a new distribution logic. Investors will reconsider their safety margin and make a quotation, so as to break the “free rider” quotation strategy and rebalance the game.
For individual investors, they should abandon the thinking of “brainless innovation” and turn to cautious subscription rather than abandonment.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, believes that the fundamental reason for the frequent breaking of new shares recently is the high valuation. At the end of last year, the high investment sentiment in the primary market led to the overall upward valuation of IPO projects, which directly led to the dynamic P / E ratio valuation of enterprises listed this year being significantly higher than that of last year. Faced with unreasonable valuation, investors will naturally choose not to pay.
In terms of system, Chen Li suggested that we can strengthen the role of securities companies as sponsors in price negotiation, and require securities companies to increase the proportion of strategic follow-up and investment, so as to avoid the phenomenon of raising the market value of the primary market and handing it over to the secondary market.
Wu Kaida believes that in the long run, there is still room for optimization of the placement system at the issue level. For example, strengthen the right of underwriting to negotiate the price, and compensate the inquiry objects who provide real information in terms of quantity. However, in essence, to adapt the system to the market environment, we need a more mature market as the basis.
On how to effectively reduce the breaking of new shares, Wu Kaida said that we first need to rely on the spontaneous mechanism of the market. After the breaking tide appears, offline investors will quote considering their own safety margin, which will effectively lower the issue pricing. Secondly, in terms of rules, we should increase the rejection proportion of high prices, which can restrain the current “free rider” investors who bid high prices. Finally, in the environment of the dominant pricing power of issuers and investment banks, it is necessary to give reasonable window guidance to issuers and investment banks to jointly promote the healthy development of the market.
