On April 18, the A-share auto parts sector led the rise, driving the rise of auto chips, semiconductors and components, auto electronics, new energy vehicles and other auto related sectors. Securities firms interviewed by the China Securities Journal believe that the second quarter is a time window for the re layout of the automobile industry chain, and the high growth rate of performance in the second half of the year is expected to remain unchanged.
auto sector rebounded strongly
Since this year, the auto sector has been in a unilateral downward trend, and the prosperity of the auto industry chain has a great impact on the auto parts industry. Data show that this year, as of April 14, the cumulative decline of auto parts index reached 28.55%. The index rebounded significantly in the past two trading days, with an increase of 3.22% on April 18, and several stocks in the sector rose by the limit. Among them, Zhongjie (Jiangsu) Technology Co.Ltd(301072) , Jiangsu Bojun Industrial Technology Co.Ltd(300926) , Ningbo Fangzheng Automobile Mould Co.Ltd(300998) increased by 20%.
On the message side, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) 18 started the pressure test of resumption of work and production. According to insiders, a car has about twenty or thirty thousand parts, involving a large number of supply chain enterprises Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) revealed that Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) has more than 1000 parts suppliers and service providers in Shanghai alone.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of cars in Shanghai in 2021 was 2.832 million, accounting for 10.68% of the national output, ranking second in the country. In 2021, the sales volume of automobiles in Shanghai was 730000, accounting for 3.46% of the national market share. In addition, many Chinese parts enterprises are located in the Yangtze River Delta, which accounts for about 21.6% of the national automobile output and 31.2% of the added value of the automobile industry.
"Previously, due to the shutdown of parts suppliers, which exacerbated the tension of the supply chain, some vehicle manufacturers in China also reduced production and stopped production. The market sentiment was low, and the targets of all sectors of the automobile industry chain showed different degrees of correction. With the simultaneous measures taken by the Ministry of industry and information technology and Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission to help enterprises resume production, the car enterprises that had previously stopped production are expected to gradually resume production, which effectively boosted market confidence." Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Zhang Fan said.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) automobile researcher Deng Xue believes that Changchun and Shanghai promote the resumption of work and production, which is conducive to the valuation and repair of the automobile industry chain. Shanghai's auto supply chain is expected to start production one after another in the near future. Excellent companies or through excellent management and control and excellent quality control, make up orders after the end of the epidemic, so as to achieve performance and valuation repair.
configuration opportunities gradually appear
To some extent, the rise of the auto sector indicates that the market expectation begins to change. Zhang Chenghang, an analyst at Huachuang securities, believes that the stock price has basically digested the negative factors in the early stage, and the sector ushers in the opportunity of re layout. "At the valuation level, the underlying share prices of most auto parts have fallen to the level before the rise in the fourth quarter of last year, and the sector index has fallen by nearly 30%. At present, the average price earnings ratio (TTM) is 22 times, which is located in the historical center. It is expected that the high growth expectation of the industry in the second half of the year will remain unchanged, and there will be allocation opportunities after the rise of short-term raw material prices and the impact of the epidemic." Zhang Chenghang said.
"Due to epidemic factors, the market demand for passenger cars is expected to be released in the second quarter, which will accelerate the switching of investment clock. It is expected that the industry will start a new round of zhugra cycle in 2022, and the reconstruction and upgrading of auto parts will be the main driving force. At present, the auto parts sector continues to have low allocation, and under optimistic and neutral assumptions, the sector is expected to open a bull market in the second quarter." Shao Jiang, chief analyst of Minsheng securities automotive industry, said that the current market sentiment of the automotive sector may have bottomed out, which means that the position of the bottom of the sector is clear, which is a better opportunity for high-quality targets.
The positive attitude of securities companies towards the automobile industry chain is also related to the policy Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) it is expected that from may or June, the automobile sales volume is expected to improve month on month, and the supply gap in the early stage will be made up by working overtime, so the automobile sector has great flexibility.
