Today (April 19), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened mixed. At the beginning of the session, the stock index rose, and then fell rapidly. The Shanghai index remained in shock and consolidation near yesterday’s closing point, while the gem index showed a decline, which was far less than the Shanghai index’s resistance to decline.
On the disk, the light index and heavy stock market reappeared, the agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery sector performed strongly, and the energy industry chains such as oil and gas, coal, steel and nonferrous metals also soared. In addition, fertilizer, pesticide, real estate development and other sectors also performed prominently. In the mining sector, Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co.Ltd(002207) , Renzhi shares and so on soared.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] coal
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that the global coal supply lacks elasticity and the supply and demand pattern is tight. At present, China’s coal production capacity has entered a contraction period, and the withdrawal of coal production capacity under “carbon neutralization” has accelerated. At the same time, the amendment to the new criminal law suppresses the overproduction of coal mines. Even if some nuclear increased production capacity is released, it is still difficult to change the supply tension in the medium-term 3-5 years; On the import side, the overall output of major international coal producers related to China has fallen sharply, and the import can not make up for the gap, and we are facing a shortage of global coal supply. China’s supply gap is expected to expand year by year from 2022 to 2025.
In addition, Cinda Securities said that in the next 2-3 months, as all parts of the South enter the peak summer stage, coal supply will still face great pressure. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that under the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China’s coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that recently, coal enterprises have successively published their annual reports for 2021, and the trend of high score, red and high dividend is obvious. The coal industry is expected to have high medium and long-term prices without large capital expenditure, and the continuous high return to investors will be a major feature of the industry. Overall, the stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 4-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectations is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022.
[Topic 2] steel
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) mentioned that the main line of steady growth remains unchanged, and pay attention to the grasp of the boom window. In the medium term, the main line of steady growth remains unchanged, and the subsequent stronger policy stimulus expectations can still be expected. Although the effects of government investment, tax reduction and fee reduction and real estate easing can not be achieved overnight, they will eventually appear. Therefore, the steel boom is still expected to have a flexible window in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) and other undervalued or high dividend targets in advance, which is in line with the current defensive market style. In addition, attention should be paid to: first, superalloy Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) and so on; Second, the targets in the processing field, such as: 1) aluminum processing Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ; 2) Stainless steel processing Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ; Third, the leader in the field of special steel, Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) etc; Fourth, steel pipes under the municipal pipeline investment line.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and the steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the Chinese newspaper and the leader of special steel in realizing the high prospect of the industry.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that at present, the demand for steel at the real estate end and automobile end has been at the bottom to be recovered, and the demand at the infrastructure end is also waiting for accelerated replenishment. At the same time, with the high demand for steel exports, we don’t think it’s necessary to be pessimistic about the demand for steel. With the inflection point of the national epidemic, the demand for steel may show a pulse recovery trend.
[Theme 3] colored
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that the deterioration of the epidemic in many places in China had an impact on the new energy vehicle industry chain. Due to the restrictions on personnel and logistics under the epidemic, vehicle manufacturers faced supply chain problems such as insufficient parts. Tesla, Shanghai, blue and other new energy vehicle manufacturers were forced to stop production and reduce production. Orders and production scheduling of some battery enterprises fell from April to may, affecting the demand for lithium salt in the upstream of the industry chain and prompting the correction of lithium price at a high level. However, after the Ministry of Communications issued a document in the middle of the week, local logistics began to improve, and Shanghai also started to resume work and production at the weekend. It is expected that after the new energy vehicle industry chain gradually resumes production, the upstream lithium salt demand will usher in a new round of stimulation under the condition of low inventory in the material factory. In the case of the performance forecast of the first quarterly report, the performance of enterprises in the lithium sector continues to release significantly. At present, the annualized valuation is in a very low position. Driven by the positive recovery of downstream production, it may usher in a rebound.
In addition, under the severe epidemic situation in China and the requirements of stable growth, monetary easing and financial support are expected to be strengthened, the central bank has reduced the reserve requirement by 25 basis points, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded significantly, more than 70 real estate cities have relaxed the regulation scale, and there may be further easing policies in the future. With the sharp rebound of the real estate sector, the industrial metal in the upstream of the real estate industry chain may rise along with the recovery of downstream demand. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the industrial metal sector Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co.Ltd(600497) .
In addition, Cinda Securities pointed out that under the background of the “double carbon” goal, it attaches importance to the historic investment opportunities of new energy and new materials, and focuses on new energy metals with strong demand and weak supply pattern and new metal materials benefiting from industrial upgrading and domestic substitution. The strong constraints on the supply of metal resources caused by long-term low capital expenditure will support the high operation of non-ferrous metal prices in the next few years. At the same time, with the upward inflation expectation and the continuous easing of China’s monetary policy, non-ferrous metal resource enterprises will usher in investment opportunities for value revaluation.
[theme 4] oil and gas
East Asia Qianhai securities mentioned that international natural gas prices rose sharply.
The rise in natural gas prices is mainly due to further sanctions on Russian natural gas supply. If Europe reduces the purchase of coal from Russia or prohibits the import of natural gas, the US natural gas price will face greater upward pressure in the coming months. At the same time, the rise of coal price will further drive the high price of natural gas.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that companies with advantages of LNG terminal and gas source will benefit from the rise of natural gas price. It is suggested to pay attention to Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) , the upstream elastic target Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , the dual gas source Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) , and Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited(000968) , Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co.Ltd(603393) , Yamei energy.
In addition, Shenyin Wanguo Securities believes that oil and gas prices remain high, driving the performance of the upstream sector to continue to improve, and the price difference of downstream refining and chemical industry to narrow. 1) Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . 2) From the perspective of cost advantage of ethane to ethylene and benefit of propylene industry chain, satellite chemistry is recommended. 3) Oil price rebound, cost advantage and long-term growth of coal chemical industry, with Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . 4) The flexibility of the sharp rise in oil prices. At the same time, from the perspective of reducing capital expenditure in overseas upstream and increasing energy security in China, it is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) , China Petroleum Engineering Corporation(600339) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) , etc.
