Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : lay out pig production capacity and pay attention to planting in spring farming season
Under the triple pressure of low pig price, high cost and tight cash flow, the production capacity of breeding sows can be reduced or sustained; The seed industry has been on the right side of the boom inflection point and on the left side of technological change, with emphasis on the pig and seed sectors.
Pigs: at present, the core factors that determine the production capacity of fertile sows are cash flow and pig price. In terms of cash flow, the industry has been in a loss since June last year. The range and duration of industry losses in this round of pig cycle are at a historically high level, and the cash flow pressure of small and medium-sized farmers who lack financing channels is large. In terms of pig prices, there is still great pressure on the supply side of pigs, while the consumer side continues to be depressed. The unsealed areas resume work and production or boost the enthusiasm of farmers to sell, which suppresses pig prices. Under the triple pressure of low pig price, high cost and tight cash flow, it is expected that the depopulation of sow production capacity will continue. At present, the pig price is in the bottoming period, and the continuous deep loss of the industry is expected to accelerate the elimination of sow production capacity and support the reversal of pig price. In terms of target selection, it is recommended to self breed and self raise leading pig enterprises, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and cost-effective piglets with high expansion certainty.
Planting: there is a shortage of high-quality varieties and the layout of seed industry is booming. The Agricultural Technology Extension Center released the analysis on the supply and demand situation of national crop seed production in 2022. Among them, the planned area of hybrid corn seed production in 2022 is 3.15 million mu, an increase of 16%, or due to the increase of corn seed price and the decrease of corn seed inventory last year. At present, grain prices are booming, farmers have a high enthusiasm for production, and there is a shortage of high-quality varieties. They are optimistic about the price increase of strong varieties. In addition, the commercialization of GM is still advancing steadily. At present, the seed industry is on the right side of the inflection point of prosperity and on the left side of technological change. It is suggested to stick to the investment opportunities of the sector. Continue to recommend Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) .
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : the pig sector is still in an important layout window
In terms of planting, the prices of wheat and corn remained high, and the demand for seeds remained high. In the long run, the revision of the seed law is conducive to the improvement of industry concentration and the market share of leading companies. The commercialization process of medium and long-term genetically modified seeds will continue to be promoted, which will benefit the seed leader. Recommended Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) .
In terms of feed, the price of fish meal increased significantly, and the price of feed raw materials remained high. It is expected that the overall production and sales of feed in the first half of 2022 will continue to grow, especially aquatic feed and ruminant feed. The price rise of feed raw materials such as corn, soybean meal and fish meal has slightly squeezed the gross profit margin of feed processing, but the leading enterprises have a strong ability to transfer costs to downstream breeding plants, and the market share is expected to increase. It is recommended that Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , and pay attention to Hefeng animal husbandry.
In terms of investment suggestions, we reiterate that the current pig sector is still in an important layout window period: 1) the capacity continues to be de converted, which has decreased month on month for eight consecutive months since July last year, the capacity decline has maintained high intensity, the direction of de conversion has maintained high stability, and is expected to accelerate under multiple factors such as supply and demand and cost; 2) The pig price is in the bottom area, and the downward space is very small, which is in an environment extremely conducive to the deregulation of production capacity; 3) The valuation is still at the bottom. In particular, the head enterprises are at the bottom corresponding to the valuation in 2022, which is sufficiently defensive and brings greater flexibility to the upward period of pig price. Therefore, it's still at a very good configuration timing point, so it's still at a very good configuration timing point. Continue to recommend pig sectors, continue to recommend pig sectors, focus on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) etc.
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: the price of white chicken series products rises. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the bottom configuration opportunity
Recently, the price of white chicken products has continued to rise, and all links of the industrial chain have turned losses into profits. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the configuration opportunities at the bottom of the broiler sector. The pig industry has continued to suffer losses since the middle of 21 years, the logic of capacity de industrialization is firm, and the probability of turning the head upward of pig price q2-q3 is high. It maintains the "optimistic" rating, and focuses on recommending four golden pigs that are obviously underestimated. High grain prices outside China are conducive to the rise of the profit center of the planting industry and maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry.
The price of white chicken series products has risen, and it is strongly recommended to pay attention to the bottom configuration opportunity. The reduction in the production and inventory of parents' generation will lag two months, which is reflected in the marketing of commercial wool chicken and chicken supply. The supply side supports the continuous rise of white chicken prices in the short term. In addition, the recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in European and American countries may inhibit the introduction of Chinese ancestors, suspension of introduction and medium-term rise in prices, or high probability events. The stock prices of relevant stocks are currently at historic lows, and it is strongly recommended to pay attention to the bottom allocation opportunities of the broiler sector. Individual stocks focus on Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002234) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) and Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) .
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : the current rise in global food prices is expected to accelerate the implementation of transgenic technology
In terms of pig breeding, at present, the valuation of pig breeding stocks is at a relatively low level. It is suggested to look at the long term from the short term, and pay attention to the deterministic expectation of the upward cycle brought by the deregulation of production capacity. Key recommendations include, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) : leading cost and strong growth certainty Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : sufficient capital reserves and effective cost control in the near future.
In terms of planting industry chain, in the current environment of rising global food prices and food export restrictions in many countries, transgenic technology is expected to accelerate the implementation. Key recommendations include, Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) : rich reserves of transgenic technology Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) : corn seeds are expected to rise in both quantity and price.
In terms of poultry breeding, under the joint action of multiple factors, the global egg price continued to rise. At present, the white feather broiler industry is still in a state of oversupply. In the follow-up, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of the policy on the stock of ancestral chickens and the promotion process of breeding chickens in China. Key recommendations include Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) : self owned ancestral breeding chickens, sales of breeding chickens and parental generation chicken seedlings.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : it is recommended to pay attention to the breeding head enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control
In the first half of the year, the pig market is still oversupplied, and there is still pressure for the continuous rise of pig prices. Under the continuous loss of the industry, the capacity removal will continue, and the accumulation of capacity removal will eventually lead to the arrival of the turning point of the cycle.
At the current time point, we continue to focus on the pig breeding sector.
We believe that there are differences in the industry about the inflection point recently, and we still maintain the judgment that the q2-q3 inflection point is coming. It is suggested to grasp the investment window period of the pig breeding sector, and the companies are at the bottom of the range from the average market value dimension, while the performance is low, and the market has been fully expected, so there is no need to share the worries. At this stage, we continue to recommend breeding head enterprises that have obvious advantages in cost control, followed by second-line and small American Standard enterprises that focus on Dilemma reversal, large cost improvement expectation and certainty of listing growth. Highlight Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , etc.
AVIC Securities: the worst time point of pig market in recent years has passed or is firmly optimistic about the prospect of national seed industry
We believe that the worst time point of the pig market in recent years may have passed. In terms of trading, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the pig sector. At the same time, pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the reversal of pig cycle to the animal protection sector. The reasons are as follows: 1) the reversal of pig cycle will improve the breeding profit, increase the demand for animal protection, and the animal protection industry will also reverse. From the historical trend of the sector, the market of pigs and animal protection sector is highly consistent, and the start of animal protection sector lags slightly, which is also in line with the logic of industrial profit transmission. 2) Vertically, the overall valuation of the animal protection industry has been at a historically low level with high cost performance. 3) Horizontally, there is also a cost performance ratio with the valuation of overseas dynamic insurance enterprises. The average PE of zoetis, the global animal insurance giant, in five years is 42 times. Although there is still a gap in the core R & D, service and other capabilities of China's mobile insurance enterprises, Chinese enterprises also have the explosive potential in the domestic substitution of mobile insurance segments and the expansion of overseas business, and the valuation cost performance is prominent.
In addition, for broilers, we believe that the supply and demand fundamentals of yellow feather chicken will promote the market cycle upward. 1) On the supply side, the long-term breeding loss in the early stage makes the industry's production capacity obvious. According to the China Animal Husbandry Association, the stock of parents of yellow feather broilers has been in a low position for nearly four years. We believe that the overall production of yellow feather broilers in 22 years will be at a low level in recent years. 2) On the demand side, as the market of live pigs and other animal proteins bottoms out, the substitution squeeze of yellow feather broiler demand will gradually ease and the margin will be better. In addition, the consumption of live poultry suppressed by the epidemic has been fully digested in the past two years, with marginal improvement. The Yellow Feather Broiler sector is expected to usher in a business cycle. Pay attention to Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and other related subjects.
In addition, in the medium and long term, we are firmly optimistic about the prospects of the national seed industry and the improvement of the fundamentals of relevant seed enterprises. Under the banner of seed industry revitalization, the iteration and reconstruction of the industry are constantly implemented from top to bottom, which is highly deterministic. "Iteration" refers to the iteration of biological breeding technology. In January, relevant policies on transgene and gene editing were implemented to support the efficient approval of relevant varieties and show the determination and strength of the policy. "Reshaping" is the reshaping of the industry pattern. At the national conference to promote the work of supporting excellence of seed enterprises, it was once again emphasized that "we should improve and strengthen a number of seed industry leading enterprises with integrated innovation ability and adapt to market demand, and create the backbone force for the revitalization of seed industry". The leading seed enterprises with scientific research advantages will become more and more prominent. "Top down" refers to the implementation of policies, systems, supervision and law enforcement under the banner of seed industry revitalization. The overall industry fundamentals will be better and better. Key recommendation: seed industry leader [ Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ] with genetically modified trait reserve, and [ Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ] with leading genetically modified technology and multiple businesses.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : food security is crucial! Listed companies related to seed industry have ushered in an important policy window
From the current time node, the average market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has fallen to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. The choice of specific targets to choose from among among the specific targets is to be recommended in turn for the selection of specific targets, with the following to be recommended in turn: the0 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 8 , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , etc. are expected to benefit fully.
In addition, as a country with a large population, food security is very important. National macro policies have always placed food security and seed industry revitalization at a strategic high point. The prosperity of seed industry has increased, and listed companies related to seed industry have ushered in an important policy window. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : pig price is still relatively low, pay attention to the momentum of subsequent seasonal rebound
Affected by covid-19 epidemic and other factors, pig prices are still relatively low. Pay attention to the momentum of subsequent seasonal rebound. The pig breeding sector took the lead in completing the valuation and repair of fundamentals, and paid attention to the catalytic effect of higher than expected factors such as capacity removal and pig price in the later stage. At the current stage, it is suggested to screen targets from multidimensional aspects such as operation and management level, capital chain security, listing growth elasticity and valuation matching, and focus on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and so on. The reversal of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) dilemma is still improving. Among small and medium-sized pig enterprises, it is suggested to pay attention to companies with relatively loose capital chain, and pay attention to Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , etc. After 20 / 21 years of industrial losses, the production capacity of Huangyu broiler has been cleared, ushering in the economic recovery, and Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) have benefited. For the white feather broiler business, the industry is facing the pressure of rising production capacity, downward pig price and upward raw material cost. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of bottom recovery of the industry and Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) transformation attempt.
Feed and animal protection: according to the data of sample enterprises of feed industry association, from January to February 2022, the total output of industrial feed in China was 43.84 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, including 21.26 million tons of pig feed, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; 1.67 million tons of aquatic products, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%; 2.51 million tons of ruminants, 5.25 million tons of egg birds and 12.65 million tons of meat birds. Continue to focus on the feed industry. Recently, the price of raw materials in the upstream has risen rapidly. On the one hand, through the rapid price increase, the cost pressure is transmitted to the downstream, and the price of feed is generally increased; On the other hand, under the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices, the advantages of leading enterprises in procurement, formula research and development and operation management will be fully reflected. It is expected that the profitability of a single ton of feed will be less affected.
